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Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2009 1:25:24 AM

Oh, for you MONTHLY Pivot traders and SPX ... Here's StockCharts.com's $BPSPX Link

Look at it and say ... MONTHLY accumulation to 72.00%, then distribution to 46.00%, then accumulation to 54.00%, then stop.

Feel the "wave?" You KNOW how it traded in the MONTHLY Pivot retracement.

QUARTERLY pivot traders ... do the same, but your just 1/3 the way through.

Here, chart from Wednesday's wrap Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2009 1:25:19 AM

Anyhow ... This is where I begin for an institutional client's January'09 update. I'm running behind!

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2009 1:25:12 AM

StockCharts.com's BPCOMPQ Link

Dorsey's BPOTC in "O" at 30.00% on chart (29.01% actual)

Not that many higher dividend paying stocks on the NASDAQ. May be some "bad tick" differences that were not accounted for at this point. Still, Dorsey and StockCharts.com's usually pretty close.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2009 1:24:55 AM

Dorsey/Wright's NYSE Bullish % (BPNYSE) at this Link

StockCharts.com's $BPNYA Link ... Does show a 3-box reversal back up.

Note: StockCharts.com's may be "incorrect" for us supply/demand purists. StockCharts.com's will go back an "penalize" a stock's supply/demand chart for dividend distributions. For higher dividend paying stocks, this will "skew" the actual supply/demand chart (and their bar charts). So, if a stock traded $43.00 prior to a dividend payment (say $1.00), then when the dividend is paid, StockCharts.com will go back and make the actual $43, look like $42. If that were a relative high at resistance, and now that stock trades $43.00 again (true supply/demand resistance), the "adjustment" StockCharts.com made (to $42) no gives the impression that DEMAND (X) has exceeded a prior level. Perhaps an artificial "buy" signal.

Same can happen when Dorsey's reverses UP first, yet StockCharts.com's still in column of "O."

Anyhow ... supply/demand purist like myself says ... "if somebody paid $43, then mark it on the chart, don't go back and say it only traaded $42." Also "if somebody sold it for $12, then mark it on the chart, don't go back and say it traded $11."

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2009 1:24:47 AM

Dorsey/Wright's Bullish % All (BPALL) Link

I can see what could be waves.

Currently needs a 3-box reversal back higher to 40.00% for "bull confirmed."

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2009 1:24:32 AM

Keene and Jane! (03:35:51 PM) ... I've just never seen anyone be able to trade EW profitable. I'm probably like "Bob."

Like some subscribers, I didn't see the bear market continue in 2003, then 2004, then 2005, then 2006, then 2007.

As I had warned (as experience as a "stock broker" and professional trader Series 55), eventually it would come true as the bear cycle would unfold (My 2008 forecast was "Modest Recession") and the "cry wolf" was under way. I even predicted in 2006 and 2007 that once it did unfold, those that had been calling for it would NEVER trade it, as even they didn't believe it after years of "short, stop the high" ran their accounts to $0.00.

Maybe it isn't EW I don't believe in, but I sure haven't been able to learn how to use it profitably. So, I just can't use it.

Nope ... PnF and Pivots. Then look around and understand what VARIOUS sectors (not just equity) say about the ECONOMY. The analysis isn't ALWAYS correct, but history has shown (see trade blotter) I win more than I lose from my teachings and analysis/thought processes.

Keene has said that EW is great because it incorporates "emotion" and boy have we've seen that this past month.

Allow the best to come forward and demonstrate their ability to earn the reward.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:41:38 PM

US Bank Business Loans Up $2.1 Billion In Latest Week

U.S. banks' commercial and industrial loans rose $2.1 billion to about $1.571 trillion in the week ended Jan. 21, the latest week for which data are available, the Federal Reserve said Friday.

That followed a $4.2 billion increase the previous week.

Jumbo certificates of deposit fell $4.7 billion to about $1.996 trillion in the latest weekly data, after growing $21.2 billion the previous week. Revolving home equity loans rose $800 million to $591 billion after growing $600 million the previous week.

Federal Reserve Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:39:10 PM

S&P Cuts Ratings on MGM Mirage, Citing Vegas Data

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:21:38 PM

Continue to follow WEF Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2009 10:20:48 PM

Major Global Index, Currency, USO/OIX, GLD/HUI.X, XLF, DJUSHB, IEF at this Link

January Effect'09 Benchmarked.

Some sign that historic U.S. election analysis and outcome in play.

Look at 2008 Q2, or 2008 Q4 (XLF, DJUSHB and GLD)

See the difference?

I will always support the President of the United States. Let's be clear on that. Policy outline? Not always.

OI Technical Staff : 1/30/2009 10:00:04 PM

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