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Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2009 5:16:49 PM

ES and VIX.X 10-minute intervals. QCharts' (RSD) Daily and WEEKLY Link

If anything, it was on WEDNESDAY that the INABILITY of the VIX.X to get much below its WKLY S2 would have suggested the ES/SPY/SPX was vulnerable to WKLY S1.

FINANCIALS and ENERGY are ES/SPY/SPX heavyweights in addition.

It would have to be my analysis, based on observation, the "reason" the VIX=SPX day trader has had such difficulty the past two years is comprehension of importance of financials and energy weightings. Their volatility alone make DAILY Pivot (regular session derived) that much more important.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2009 4:56:32 PM

SPY and VIX.X 10-minute intervals with QCharts DAILY and WEEKLY Pivot levels turned on. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2009 4:36:09 PM

Last 2 and NEW Weekly Pivot Levels at this Link

Percentage terms, BIX and NDX/QQQQ "outperformed" to the upside. RUT.X a bit, but fractions red.

However, RUT.X now "underperforms" technically, unable to achieve WKLY R2 (SMH missed by a penny, DIA above by 2-cents).

NDX/QQQQ still only index I'd consider NAKED PUT selling against at this point on volatility spikes.

Note: VIX.X -5.14% this week, SPX/SPY also lower (see last week's MM commentary/disagreements). I've tried and tried to teach VIX.X within the pivots to get more accurate read on "what," if anything the VIX.X is saying about PRICE DIRECTION.

Basics are ... VIX Up= more put selling/call buying than call selling/put buying. VIX Down= more put buying/call selling than put selling/call buying.

Option premiums can/will moved as a result.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2009 4:00:40 PM

SPX.X Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2009 4:00:32 PM

SPX daily interval chart with NEW Monthly (dark purple) at this Link

MACD looks "convergance" not "divergance" (Moving Average Converge/Diverge). BULLS need a kick higher early this week to get MACD signal back above MACD itself (Using 12,26,9).

Will also begin to note importance of recently "Established UP TREND". TREND "B", the downward trend tested Wednesday still overriding and more powerful, as is the MONTHLY Pivot. Which after a trade at MONTHLY S1 in January, would expect institutional computer to have some inventory to sell at M Pivot on first test, if tested.(see Quarterly Pivot action after QS2 in 08, then QPiv resistance here in January).

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2009 2:53:55 PM

Dec, Jan, FEB Monthly Pivot Levels at this Link

These are Regular Session Derived (RSD).

OI Technical Staff : 1/31/2009 9:59:59 PM

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