Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 5:03:17 PM

I will say this ... buyers showed up when they HAD to today.

Will check the bullish % this evening and see if it was meaningful buying.

It certainly wasn't enough to get SPX PRICE above the WKLY Pivot (RSD).

SPX 10-minute intervals Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 4:57:32 PM

UUP $25.61 -1.23% ... goes out right smack on its MONTHLY Pivot (RSD)

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 4:37:58 PM

NYSE now reporting CLOSING volume of 5.24 billion.

At 02:00 they may have reported in error. (see my 02:08:39 note)

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 4:21:13 PM

WFC $18.53 -3.64% ... backfilled 1/2 (take 5-cents) of 01/27/09 to 1/28/09 gap higher at session low of $17.45.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 4:18:34 PM

UYG finished $3.11

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 4:17:45 PM

JPM finished $24.05 ... prarie dogged 19.1% retracement of recent wave down, but not much more.

Finished just under 38.2% of recent wave move higher.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 4:12:56 PM

YM 7,999

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 4:07:49 PM

You could push me a little more bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 4:07:33 PM

Actually ... VIX.X did close BELOW my WKLY Pivot. Was looking at QCharts' at 42.08

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 4:06:44 PM

On the SPX 10-min chart earlier I showed the potential to stair-step higher tomorrow up to the 62% retracement at 853. That would also match the downtrend line from September as shown on the 60-min chart: Link . But the bulls will need to immediately rally this tomorrow morning (other than a quick dip that gets reversed quickly). Any drop below 832.52, this morning's high, would negate the bullish pattern and would instead say the bounce is finished (shown in pink).

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 4:03:16 PM

SPX 838.82 +1.60% ... VIX.X 52.81 ... slightly bearish in my opinion.

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 3:57:42 PM

I'd say it looks like a consolidation pattern into the close and that suggests higher tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 3:52:28 PM

Not enough for RISK managed $10K account.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 3:52:02 PM

IWM-BV's session high has been $0.75

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 3:49:55 PM

Pros to the close.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 3:49:39 PM

SPX 838.56 +1.55% ... check back at QRTRLY 38.2%.

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 3:41:06 PM

The bulls want to see the market now consolidate into the close (if not head higher) as that would indicate higher highs tomorrow for the bounce (with the 62% retracement as the upside target if 845 can be exceeded). A break below 834 would indicate the high is in.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 3:36:30 PM

SMH $17.67 +1.49% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 3:30:19 PM

Stage has been (once again) ... NDX/QQQ, RUT.X, OEX, SPX, and not yet of INDU/DIA.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 3:29:45 PM

OEX.X 398.65 +1.86% ... takes a look at its WKLY Pivot (RSD).

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 3:29:42 PM

The strength of the last-hour rally now has me thinking of something a little more bullish before the bounce finishes. This SPX 10-min chart shows how we could see the market stair-step higher tomorrow to finish the rally that started off yesterday afternoon's low. I don't know if this will play out but it needs to be considered by those of us trying to find a short entry point. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 3:28:29 PM

60-min Stochs %k "overbought" at 83.09. MACD hooking up at -3.09, Signal -5.03

RSD

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 3:27:00 PM

SPX 839.72 +1.72% ... session high has been, been ... 841.20.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 3:20:11 PM

RUT.X 453.67 +0.90% ... WKLY Pivot (RSD)

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 3:16:31 PM

Beetle's Balanced Benchmark 2009 Link

At very top, I just took hypothetical $1,000.00 that represented UUP as a whole, and split it into thirds.

Per CNBC's "dollar weak seems to have stocks stronger," I'd maybe refine it to "euro strength...." as FXE -7.01% YTD (P/L %) and more inline with DIA, SPY, IWM.

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 3:14:44 PM

If the bulls can keep this going we just might see SPX 845 after all.

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 3:13:46 PM

There's the "one more new high". Now let's see if it holds or not.

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 3:11:07 PM

I like the time and price for the retracement of last week's decline. It has taken a little longer than typical (62% of the time for the decline had the bounce ideally finishing at 12:00 PM today) but was a little small in price (only 38%). The combination makes for a good relief bounce before continuing lower in the 3rd wave. Once we get an impulsive decline I'll then know we've made a top for the bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 3:04:19 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,475/1,229

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 3:04:08 PM

NYSE a/d 1,667/1,233

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 3:01:45 PM

XLF $8.99 -2.70% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 3:01:15 PM

dj- FDIC Official: Agency could play role in running "bad bank"

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 2:57:57 PM

One more push to a minor new high would do it for the wave count for the leg up from the mid-day low. But this is looking at a 2-min chart and sometimes that "one more new high" never arrives.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:53:19 PM

GILD +1.83%
TEVA +2.25% (somewhat "drug" too)
AMGN +1.93%
GENZ +1.12%
CELG -0.59%
BIIB +2.93%

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:50:14 PM

QQQQ $29.77 +1.22% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:50:00 PM

NDX 1,210.35 +1.22% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:49:42 PM

Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 672.16 +3.34% ... sticks its head above its WKLY R2 (RSD)

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:46:57 PM

ES did kiss its (ESD) 38.2% retracement 832.89

Jane Fox : 2/3/2009 2:46:05 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Honda Motor Co. (HMC) said Tuesday that January U.S. sales fell 27.9% to 71,031 vehicles from 98,511 a year ago. Total U.S. car sales in January declined to 40,532 from 55,345 a year ago, and truck sales dropped to 30,499 from 43,166 last year.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:44:40 PM

NASDAQ NH/NL running 11:103 ... DAILY Ratio 9.6%. Bulls would really like to see something north of 12%

Jane Fox : 2/3/2009 2:43:43 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Audi of America reported on Tuesday that its U.S. sales fell 26.4% to 4,722 units in January from 6,416 in January 2008. Sales of A8 models fell 65.1% to 95 units while A5 models rose 76.3% to 603 units.

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 2:43:35 PM

A 38% retracement for the DOW is just shy of 8081.

Jane Fox : 2/3/2009 2:43:25 PM

Borders eliminates 6 vice president, 10 director positions

Jane Fox : 2/3/2009 2:43:05 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Hyundai Motor Co. (HYMLF) on Tuesday reported its sales rose 14.3% to 24,512 units in January from 21,452 units in January 2008, bucking the general industry trend. "We got off to a quick start in January thanks to the rollout of our all new Hyundai Assurance Program, which has struck a chord with the American consumer during these uncertain times," said Dave Zuchowski, Hyundai Motor America's vice president of national sales. Hyundai sold 1,056 of its luxury model Genesis last month.

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 2:42:38 PM

SPX is nearing its 38% retracement of last week's decline (837.70) and has tagged the top of a bear flag for the bounce off yesterday's low. The upside Fib target near 845 still beckons but I'd be careful if long the market--chase your stops up behind this. This afternoon's leg up looks like it needs to stair-step a little higher but resistance lies near. SPX 30-min chart: Link

The significance of the wave count here is that the next leg down should be a very strong one (which will smash through 800 like it's not there). Therefore I like the opportunity here to nibble on some short positions. Then if it starts working you can add to it on a confirmed breakdown.

Jane Fox : 2/3/2009 2:41:51 PM

The VIX is supporting the S&P futures new daily highs but keep in mind the AD line and volume are rather anemic today. I see the market continuing to climb but it will be very choppy. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:40:34 PM

VIX.X 42.99 -5.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:40:19 PM

SPX 836.76 alert! ... QRTRLY 38.2% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:39:30 PM

SPX 836.18

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:39:13 PM

RKH $49.20 ... alert! (see/test MM 01:28:35)

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:28:05 PM

On that time interval, ESTABLISH TREND (see Wednesday's Wrap) still deemed HIGHLY Important.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:27:15 PM

60-minute interval (RSD) MACD approaching zero.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:26:28 PM

SPX 834.49

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:26:12 PM

VIX.X 43.64 -4.13% alert! ... QRTRLY 38.2%

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:25:04 PM

Ford Motor (F) $1.88 (unch) ...

Jane Fox : 2/3/2009 2:25:01 PM

And the little red SPX says,"I think I can I think can." Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:24:34 PM

GM $2.79 -3.46% ... good work Jane!

Jane Fox : 2/3/2009 2:23:22 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- General Motors Corp. (GM) on Tuesday reported a 48.9% drop in January U.S. light vehicle sales to 128,198 cars and trucks from 250,926 in January 2008. Sales of cars fell 57.9% to 43,943 while truck sales declined 42.5% to 84,255. The automaker also forecasted its North American production to total 380,000 vehicles in the first quarter--118,000 cars and 262,000 trucks, down 57% from the same quarter last year.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:23:12 PM

Shorts tried to push lower, difficult all day. Wasn't it YM traders? You have the advantage as you trade.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:22:34 PM

That's part of the "offer pull" ...

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 2:22:26 PM

SPX is now nearing its first upside target near 836 but this afternoon's leg up looks like it needs to stair-step higher yet. 845 is the next upside target if 836 breaks.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:22:00 PM

YM 8,008 alert!

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 2:19:04 PM

Looking at the banks (BIX) I see the potential for another leg up for its bounce from the January low but because of the corrective pattern in the bounce I don't believe we've seen the final low for banks yet. If BIX continues lower from here I see downside potential to about 55 (if not much lower). But if it starts another leg up in its bounce it has upside potential to about 106 before turning back down (shown in pink). BIX daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:15:35 PM

UYG $3.13 -3.98% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:15:20 PM

XLF $9.02 -2.38% ...

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 2:15:14 PM

Nice little buying spurt. Good news breaking out somewhere?

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:15:02 PM

JP Morgan (JPM) $24.10 -4.40% alert!

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:08:39 PM

Heavvvvvvvy volume at the big board.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:05:09 PM

Ford Motor (F) $1.86 -1.06% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 2:04:50 PM

General Motors (GM) $2.77 -4.15% ...

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 2:01:43 PM

The market is doing its best to hold up but the overlapping highs and lows within the bounce continues to call this corrective price action which should lead to further downside.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:46:25 PM

YM 7,935 ... after another tap at DAILY R1 (RSD)

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:43:38 PM

UYG is SWING trade ... stop is $2.95. Target is $3.40.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:40:44 PM

Disclosure: I currently hold bullish position in UYG

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:40:15 PM

Day trade long alert! ... for 1/8 position in the ProShares Ultra Financials (UYG) at the offer of $3.08.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:29:55 PM

UYG $3.06 -6.13% ... also look at trade blotter ... feel "so so"

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:28:35 PM

If it were to reclaim that intra-day, the pretty good market rally could take hold.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:27:55 PM

Pretty good volume spike in RKH at $49.03-$49.20 level. (100k)

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:26:31 PM

RKH $48.36 -6.47% ... looking at trade blotter. Short from last week's target was MAX $45.00, but way the major are holding in, seems "oversold" short-term.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:24:18 PM

Time 01:21 PM ET

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:20:07 PM

RKH $48.41 -6.38% ... session low so far $48.04

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:18:21 PM

BIX.X 81.29 -6.84% ... session low 80.16

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:17:48 PM

YM short cover alert! 7,917

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 1:16:24 PM

Sticking with the DOW for the moment, the weekly chart shows its long-term uptrend line from 1987-1994 which is currently near 7700: Link . This line supported the DOW back in November (after a brief drop below it) and the possibility remains for the market to find support there again for a bounce back up inside a sideways triangle pattern (shown in dark red).

The other possibility (pink) is that we've already started the next leg down of the bear market which will complete the decline from October 2007. Obviously a break below the November low at 7449 would tell us which one is going to play out (that would be the pink one). The downside projection is near 6300.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:15:28 PM

60-minute is a YM short's bigger problem.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:13:24 PM

YM traders ... click to a 15-minute.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:09:40 PM

XLF $8.88 -3.89% alert!

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:08:58 PM

YM cursor at at short #2 Link

See the "better" oscillator setup?

Jane Fox : 2/3/2009 1:07:36 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Tom Daschle withdrew himself from consideration as President Barack Obama's choice to head the Department of Health and Human Services, the White House said Tuesday. Obama accepted the resignation with "sadness and regret," according to a statement. Daschle's withdraw comes on the same day the pick for chief White House perfomance officer withdrew her name, citing tax mistakes.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:03:01 PM

YM short lower stop alert! ... to even.

YM 7,906

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:01:15 PM

MU $3.71

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:00:59 PM

SMH $17.35

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:00:44 PM

NDX 1,198.12

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:59:49 PM

YM short ... stop goes 7,939. Target 7,885

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:58:38 PM

YM short 7,921

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:57:19 PM

I'd a bet a YM short some bids would have been pulled in the big 10.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:56:58 PM

"Big 10" 9:1

"Little 10" 3:7

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:55:53 PM

Alot of cash coming out of Treasuries today.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:54:17 PM

VIX.X 44.43 -2.39% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:54:04 PM

UNH $29.52 +1.26% ... UNH-NT $0.60 x $0.70

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:52:58 PM

RXH.X 280.61 +0.15% ...

HMO.X 1,069 +2.05% ... holding tough.

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 12:51:49 PM

While looking at the DOW I see the possibility (not necessarily the probability) for another stab higher today as part of a rising wedge pattern for the c-wave of an a-b-c bounce off yesterday morning's low. An Fib projection at 8050 would be the upside target. DOW 10-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:51:30 PM

dj- Obama accepts Daschle withdrawl with "sadness and regret"

Jane Fox : 2/3/2009 12:47:58 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The number of new sales contracts on existing homes jumped a seasonally adjusted 6.3% in December as buyers took advantage of lower mortgage rates and falling prices, a real estate trade group said Tuesday.

The pending home sales index rose 6.3% in December and is now up 2.1% compared with a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors said.

The increase points to a healthy gain in existing-home sales in January and February. The index is based on signed sales contracts, which usually occur a month or two before the sale is closed, when sales are reported in the NAR's existing home sales report.

Pending sales surged in the Midwest and South, offsetting small declines in the Northeast and West.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:47:17 PM

YM short stop alert! 7,928

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:46:32 PM

Going to be close ... very close .. .

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:44:42 PM

YM day trader's 5-minute intevals Link

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 12:43:58 PM

One could certainly say that DOW setup is very bearish--the kiss goodbye at that uptrend line is obviously not bullish.

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 12:42:40 PM

While we wait to see if SPX breaks its uptrend line from November, currently near 820, I noticed that the same trend line for the DOW, near the psychologically important 8000 level, is currently holding the DOW's bounces down. DOW 60-min chart: Link

Jane Fox : 2/3/2009 12:40:48 PM

Sorry for my absence but yesterday it was charts that were MIA and today it is my internet. I cannot tell you the kind of week I have had so far.

Internals have not clear story which tells us we are witnessing a battle today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:38:27 PM

38.2% dynamic (RSD) here at 7,916. Did holw 61.8% at 7,892.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:37:44 PM

YM 7,917

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:37:35 PM

YM short adjust stop ... to 28

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:35:39 PM

INDU Components Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:28:33 PM

YM short ... stop goes 7,922. Target 7,825

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:27:59 PM

YM short alert! 7,895

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:27:20 PM

BIX.X 82.54 -5.39%

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:26:45 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 12:23:58 PM

Got the little back test and now down she goes. A break of SPX 822 would confirm the high. It's possible we'll see a larger sideways/up kind of correction (larger bear flag pattern) from yesterday's low but regardless, we've got a bearish pattern here. It will break down from here or after a larger consolidation.

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 12:18:25 PM

SPX has now marginally broken its uptrend line from yesterday so watch for any back test and failure, currently near 828. Bulls want to see a quick recovery back above the trend line.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:07:23 PM

13-week Yield edges outside Fed's target range ... up 6.5 bp at 0.310%

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 12:07:11 PM

SPX is now testing its uptrend line from yesterday afternoon, currently near 827.50.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:05:58 PM

Ford Motor (F) $1.83 -2.65% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:03:02 PM

Not many on my trader's t-chart signal much in the way of bullishness.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:02:34 PM

BIX.X -4.90% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:02:11 PM

DIA $79.59 +0.34% ...

SPY $82.84 +0.30% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 12:01:34 PM

Genral Electric (GE) alert ! $11.50

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:55:17 AM

Swing trade short alert! ... for 1/8 position in shares of Micron Tech (MU) at the bid of $3.70.

Stop goes $4.20. Target is $2.50.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:51:25 AM

SMH $17.40 -0.05% ... still tentative.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:49:33 AM

USO $28.65 +0.88% ... either side of termination benchmark

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:48:25 AM

RUT.X 448.77 -0.18% ...

IWM $44.79 -0.11% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:47:54 AM

RVX.X -1.84% ... WKLY Pivot (RSD) 51.45.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:43:36 AM

However, SPY and ES traders ... if you turn all sessions on, that trend moves notably. More so for ES as it trades nearly 24hrs, 6-days a week.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:41:24 AM

Right you are Keene ... see 01:22:55 AM post

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:40:52 AM

BKX.X 27.37 04.03% ... DAILY S2 (RSD) 27.21. From there ... WKLY S1 (RSD) 26.44.

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 11:37:48 AM

That trend line that Jeff is referring to is currently near SPX 820. It jabbed lower than it on Monday three times but kept recovering. Another jab lower might not have the same result.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:36:05 AM

SPX Daily Pivot (RSD) = 822.88

Session low 821.98.

Does its job.

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 11:35:53 AM

Jeff's trend line from November is very important.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:34:33 AM

I'm sticking with trend from the 11/21/08 low to 01/20/09 low.

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 11:33:12 AM

Use an uptrend line from yesterday afternoon for an advance warning that the market is breaking down. For SPX it's currently near 826.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:33:03 AM

The "frustrating 5"

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:32:52 AM

XLF -1.51%
BIX.X -2.95%
BKX.X -3.71%
XBD.X -0.04%
IUX.X +0.80% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:31:31 AM

RUT.X 450.87 +0.28% ... tagged WKLY Pivot (RSD) at the open.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:30:12 AM

NDX.X 1,203.86 +0.67% ... above WKLY Pivot after "deep pullback"

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:28:19 AM

Asian Markets Ended mixed from last night's benchmark.

Shanghai +2.44% at 2,061. Now up 13.19% YTD.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:26:21 AM

European Markets : Link

DAX 4,348 +1.81% ...

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 11:26:19 AM

At this point the key level to the downside is this morning's low. Now that we've seen higher highs than yesterday afternoon's the bounce pattern off yesterday morning's low can be considered complete. Any drop back below this morning's low would be confirmation the bounce has finished. In the meantime I'm watching to see what happens if and when SPX makes it up to the 834-836 area which is where the first Fibonacci resistance zone is.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:23:12 AM

NYSE a/d 1,597/1,154

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:22:30 AM

IBM $92.34 +1.55% ... has edged above its WKLY Pivot (RSD)

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:21:38 AM

Would like to see a pullback near the Daily Pivot (RSD)

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:16:16 AM

Fair value for the INDU today's is -48.06

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:15:34 AM

YM 7,950

INDU 8,001

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:12:16 AM

YM 7,950 ... takes a look at DAILY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:06:41 AM

Today's Global Econ. Calendar Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:05:03 AM

dj- German Dec. retail sales weaker than expected

German retail sales fell unexpectedly in December, indicating that household demand remains very weak in the euro zone's largest economy, preliminary data from the Federal Statistics office showed Tuesday.

Retail sales fell a real 0.2% in December from November, below economists' forecasts of a 0.5% monthly rise. The monthly data are adjusted for calendar and seasonal effects.

Retail sales declined a price-adjusted 0.3% from December 2007, despite the fact that December 2008 had one more working day than December 2007.

The weak data are significant, as foreign demand and investment aren't likely to support economic growth in 2009 either.

"It is unlikely, not to say illusionary, that consumer expenditure will transform itself into a growth engine...and as the year proceeds, headwinds will increasingly be blowing stronger in the faces of German consumers," said Andreas Rees, chief German economist at UniCredit SpA.

Retail industry group HDE meanwhile estimated Tuesday that German retail sales will decline a real 1%-2% in 2009.

"There is no doubt, 2009 will be a difficult year for the retail sector. The economic crisis will hit it, but when and how hard and how long is uncertain," said HDE Managing Director Stefan Genth.

German consumers are limiting spending in light of a rapid economic downturn and expected layoffs in the wake of the financial turmoil. Even sharp falls in inflation - German consumer prices increased 0.9% year-on-year in January, compared with rates well over 3% in the summer of 2008 - aren't likely to drive future spending, economists said.

Retail sales declined a real 0.4% in 2008, after dropping 2.3% in 2007 following a hike in value-added tax, the statistics office said.

Food, drinks and tobacco sales dropped a real 1.5% year-on-year in December, while non-food sales gained 0.5%.

The statistics office cautioned that retail sales figures are regularly revised. The data based on figures from seven German states account for about 76% of total sales, it said. The data don't include car sales and sales at gas stations.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:02:54 AM

NYSE a/d 1,385/1,348

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:02:21 AM

"Big 10" are 7:3 ... IBM +1.03% at $91.87 is gainer.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:01:08 AM

Nothing doing this morning ... very quiet.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 11:00:42 AM

YM 7,910

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 10:47:59 AM

NDX 1,196.72 +0.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 10:47:23 AM

YCS $20.835 -1.19%

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 10:43:04 AM

Based on the deep pullback this morning for NDX there is another possible corrective wave count that I now have to consider for the bounce off yesterday's low. This SPX 5-min chart shows a closer view of last night's chart with the expectation we'll see a 5-wave move up from yesterday afternoon, with an upside target of 845 (2nd leg up, wave C, being 162% of the 1st leg up, wave A): Link

This 5-min chart shows a double zigzag count (two a-b-c's separated by an x-wave): Link . Equality between wave-a and wave-c of the 2nd a-b-c, shown on the chart, is near 836 and just below the 38% retracement of the decline from last week's high. So that's the first level to watch for a reversal (assuming of course it can rally up to there). But interestingly, for the 2nd a-b-c the c-wave would achieve 162% of wave-a at the same 845 level so that remains a potential upside target as well.

So if we get a higher bounce keep an eye on 836 for a potential reversal and then 845 if the bulls can power it higher.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 10:39:28 AM

FXY $112.17 +0.89% ... rips away from WKLY Pivot (RSD) to WKLY R1 (112.42).

I would think equity bulls want to see yen soften from here. Much above here and the run could be on.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 10:34:55 AM

FXE $129.78 +1.05% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 10:34:25 AM

ECB, Fed extend currency swaps line to Oct. 30

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 10:28:04 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $17.15 -1.49% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 10:27:22 AM

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 50.33 -6.74% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 10:27:00 AM

SanDisk (SNDK) $8.70 -22.87% ...

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 10:26:41 AM

As part of a possible larger consolidation pattern if SPX drops a little lower this morning watch to see if it finds support near 820 (two equal legs down from yesterday afternoon's high).

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 10:25:57 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 10:20:20 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 10:01:10 AM

SPX has pulled back to 822 (62% retracement of yesterday's late-afternoon rally) so if it holds it could be a good setup for a long play (day trade) up to 845 (that's the potential).

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 9:57:24 AM

Currently NDX is testing yesterday afternoon's low near 1180 and its uptrend line from January 20th is near 1172.

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 9:55:45 AM

NDX is definitely worth watching here. If it breaks yesterday morning's low at 1168 it would leave the 3-wave bounce off that low as a confirmed correction and the bounce could already be over (even more bearish if true). Otherwise we could be stuck in a larger sideways consolidation pattern and getting whipsawed is the risk at the moment.

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 9:51:14 AM

Techs were relatively stronger yesterday and now this morning they're weaker. A fickle bunch they are.

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 9:43:01 AM

A pullback to about SPX 822-823 would be a good correction of yesterday's late-afternoon leg up and set the stage for another stronger rally leg this morning.

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 9:26:29 AM

Equity futures have had a nice rally off their pre-market lows around 6:00 AM so let's see if the bulls can keep it going after the cash market opens. There is the chance we'll see a pullback to test the pre-market lows (as part of a correction of the late-afternoon rally leg).

Jane Fox : 2/3/2009 9:25:28 AM

The Russell 2000 is a much stronger market. It's January 6th swing high was well above its 23.60% retracement and it closed in the green yesterday. Link

Jane Fox : 2/3/2009 9:21:24 AM

Yesterday the DOW was not quite so fortunate as the SPX and did retest its January 23rd support but didn't close below it. If the SPX has any chance at all of holding its support this market has to as well. Link

Jane Fox : 2/3/2009 9:18:47 AM

Yesterday the SPX was down but it didn't retest support at 800. I am looking to see if it can make a higher low then break the swing high at 877, which would give it pretty clear sailing back to 950 or the 23.60% retracement of the decline from all time highs at 1576 to November lows at 741. Link

Jane Fox : 2/3/2009 9:12:29 AM

The overnight session was just a consolidation of the previous day range. A couple of markets were able to peak above their respective previous day highs but only temporarily. It was mostly sideways with a little bearish flavor because of the lower low made at 2:30ET. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:45:22 AM

YM +4 at 7,891 ... since 10:58:02 MM post, session low has been, been Daily Pivot (RSD) 7,880

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:34:22 AM

Looking for some IWM covered call ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:33:13 AM

RUT.X's NH/NL tally was 3:107

Ugh!

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:30:44 AM

SPX NH/NL tally today was 0:40.

40 is most during this wave lower. Pretty close match to 11/17/08's 0:41.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:26:34 AM

ES +0.25 at 821.50

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2009 1:22:55 AM

SPX 60-minute intervals (RSD pivot retracement) Link

Dorsey/Wright's BPSPX fell 4.2% to 47.00%.

46.00% needed to reverse back lower to "bear confirmed"

Keene Little : 2/3/2009 12:09:14 AM

Tuesday's pivot table: Link

The strong bounce off Monday afternoon's low was a good start to what should be a stronger leg up Tuesday morning (for wave C of an A-B-C bounce off the morning low). Ideally we'll see a 5-wave rally off the afternoon low and up to about SPX 845. If that sets up I'll want to hit it short and see what develops from there (should be hard down).
SPX 15-min chart: Link
SPX 120-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2009 11:10:25 PM

$/yen 89.73

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2009 11:08:54 PM

Asian Markets: Link ... Holding gains early, even on reports N. Korea set to test long-range missile.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2009 10:58:02 PM

YM ready for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2009 10:43:28 PM

YM's regular session high/low and settle for Monday ... 7941, 7813, 7887

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2009 10:43:12 PM

Monday's YM recap Link

Regular session open right at DAILY R1 (RSD) and rather "sloppy". Eventually got a range to trade and with NQ/NDX/QQQQ (stronger index) hesitant at WKLY Pivots (RSD) thought it best to sell the weakness in the YM/INDU/DIA short with nice tight stop just above DAILY 38.2%. Took some doing, but Pivots held sellers in NDX/QQQQ and YM fell to target and then some.

VXO.X while red at time of YM short notable. However, as I've tried to teach day traders, volatility measures not necessarily a depictor of PRICE.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2009 10:25:39 PM

BPOTC falls to 28.46%.

StockCharts.com's BPCOMPQ Link

See this weekend's MM.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2009 10:09:26 PM

Dorsey/Wright's S&P 100 Bullish (BPOEX) sees a net loss of 6 to PnF "sell signals." Reverses back down to "bear confirmed" status at 49.00 (50% chart).

OI Technical Staff : 2/2/2009 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Market Monitor Archives