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Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 9:47:12 PM

UUP, FXE, FXY, FXB (see 09:25:00 first) ... Same montage, just slid my cursor box over to the 12/11/08 bar (it moves with FXE, FXY, FXB) Link

OK? But 12/11/08 might still be important. Somebody wanted out.

Now, today, SPX was +1.63%. What currency was a pretty big mover today? (which one of these things looks like the other, which one of these things just aint the same?

Yes, like Sesame Street.

NEXT step ... place retracement at 11/20/08 low and 01/06/09 high of FXE, FXY and FXB

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 9:25:00 PM

UUP (dollar index ETF), FXE, FXY and FXB ... here's a quick 4-chart montage on daily intervals. Link

OK, now, the other day, Bob Passani (CNBC) mentioned "have you noticed that dollar weakness brings some strength to the stocks the past couple of days?" ...

Here's what we need to be careful of, and why we need to keep track of things on an ONGOING basis if we're going to use $ and EQUITY MARKET analysis together.

Just like the INDU, or the SPX, or the NDX, you've GOT to know, or have an idea what's inside, how it is weighted, etc.

For the UUP, I've place a 11/20/08 to 01/06/09 retracement on it, and it alone for right now.

Just look at this for a minute.

Now, I've place my cursor box on the 11/20/08 bars right now.

For the UUP, do you see how it looks like the INDU, SPX, NDX? I want to KEEP that little "trap."

Then, see the 01/06/09 where I place the 25.13 at the LOW of that bar.

What have we "said" the dollar may be representative of?

1) It could be a "defensive" security. That is, a place to "hide out" with very few other asset classes worth of taking much risk in.

2) It could be an "indicator" of the world's view of the U.S. economy, its power/weakness.

These are the TWO primary things an EQUITY TRADER will be cognizant of regarding "psychology"

See, NEITHER can really be PROVEN, but what will happen, is that MARKET participants will probably start switching back and forth to its meaning.

What YOU and I need to do, is look at it, understand the relationships (fxe, fxy, fxb) and try to figure out THE currency that gives us as much HELP for EQUITY MARKET direction.

Next ... That LOOOOOONG downward bar on the UUP. I'll show you why the bulk of that bar was "garbage" and likely a whole bunch of bulls stops being triggered by some very light volume selling, but very FEW buyers.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 8:36:33 PM

Closing Internals Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 6:08:25 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Traded YM long twice for (+42)

Closed the FDO-NY

Closed the first UYG as we didn't get the "bail out" news intra-day, and I don't think it all that pruded to be holding more than 1/8 of 200-x financial (bull, or bear) overnight until we get a look and a response we can manage intra-day.

Most use a FIFO (first in first out) accounting method, so we're holding the $3.25 entry.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 5:26:47 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 5:19:19 PM

If we see a +10% to +12% move in the USO the next few days, I'm going to want to sell a COVERED call against the UBO-DE

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 5:07:17 PM

For the June contract, the 12/19/08 was $50.05.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 5:06:40 PM

One way we can look to see if the "sell short the forward" against the oil in the tankers, is to also monitor these further out futures contracts.

Thinking here is that they'll tell us when supply and demand are starting to get more inline.

How do you do that?

Market those termination dates.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 5:01:28 PM

Nymex June Crude Oil tapped $50.00 on the button today.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 4:36:39 PM

Treasury plans to uveil bailout plan Monday

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 4:33:17 PM

Jeff's comment on GOOG reminded me to show its updated daily chart. For the past week and a half or so I've been pointing out potential resistance near 853 (apex of it previous triangle pattern back in October. Sure enough that's where it's been struggling. But if it can manage to make it a little higher there remains an upside target near 865. GOOG daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 4:27:29 PM

I agree with you on that one Keene. Will check BPSPX again tonight. Was up 0.40 Wednesday's at 47.00 and supply still not enough to get 46.00.

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 4:22:59 PM

With SPX essentially parked underneath its downtrend line from September it's ready for a gap above and run. If it does that then we should see SPX make a Fib projection at 859 if not continue higher above 886 and eventually 900 to tag its downtrend line from November (top of a potential sideways triangle pattern). But a failure from here, or from 859 (shown in dark red) would set up the next decline that breaks below 800. Tricky spot here. SPX 120-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 4:13:43 PM

Akamai Tech (AKAM) $16.73 +18.06% ... had a strong day.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 4:10:31 PM

Nasty, nasty "doji" on 11/21/08.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 4:10:00 PM

Oooooo ... that one used to be a KEY stock for some, of ALL market direction.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 4:09:10 PM

How is the GOOG doing?

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 4:08:50 PM

AAPL $96.50 +3.15% ... did trade $0.08 above the 01/06/09 session high.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 4:05:54 PM

Heck, TRINQ didn't go more than 0.01 above 1.00

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 4:04:27 PM

Very impressed with NDX/QQQQ today ... very impressed.

For about the last week I've been thinking this has been a "hide out" for equity capital.

CSCO gave "a reason" to dump it.

Market participants didn't dump it.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 4:00:19 PM

BIX.X 79.48 -1.18% ... everything else is green.

That's got to be the bigger part of the VXO.X doesn't it.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:58:55 PM

Sure get the feel, based on observation we'er somewhere in the middle of something.

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 3:58:24 PM

Figures. We're going to be left hanging (from a chart perspective) as to which way this market is going to go tomorrow. I see a gap move tomorrow but it's a coin toss as to which way it's going to go.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:58:06 PM

VXO.X 42.70 +1.69%

VIX.X 43.69 -0.36% ...

Now a point difference.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:50:59 PM

Not that I'm overly certain as to what the REACTION to said news will be.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:49:43 PM

I say we just take it back to 1/8.

Swing trade long exit alert! the #1 1/8 in the ProShares UltraFinancial (UYG) at the bid of $3.20.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:46:24 PM

I thought we'd get it regular session.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:46:00 PM

Plus, we still haven't gotten the news ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:45:44 PM

WFC $16.45 -5.67% ... backfilled that gap, and then some.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:44:53 PM

JPM $24.82 +3.24% ... that's another incredible daily interval bar, but still can't get $25.41

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:43:39 PM

GS $93.00 +5.72% ... does threaten to close its 01/06/09 relative high of 92.20

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:42:52 PM

What do you think in regards to account management here ?

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:37:31 PM

YM long stop alert! 8,015

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:37:00 PM

Click back to a 5-minute interval. See your macD

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:36:29 PM

If it doesn't hit our stop

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:36:13 PM

YM long cancel target alert! ... let's see what it does to the close. WKLY Pivot would be nice.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:34:35 PM

YM long raise stop alert! ... to 8,015

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:34:03 PM


Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:33:03 PM

Click to a 3-minutes (as tight as I'll go) and see what needs to happen with MACD.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:32:28 PM

a/d holding up at the big board 1,885/1,050

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:31:49 PM

8,021 ... comes to dashed red.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:28:29 PM

YM long raise stop alert! to 7,992.

YM 8,003

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 3:23:56 PM

If SPX breaks below 837 then something more bearish is going on. And that would indicate that this market is just whacking both sides and helping brokers make money (not necessarily traders).

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:23:29 PM

YM long raise stop alert! ... to 7,985.

YM 8,008

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:19:37 PM

YM long raise stop alert! to even.

YM 7,996

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 3:17:10 PM

SPX is trying to bounce off its downtrend line from January 28th. Any rally back to a new daily high now would be bullish for a run up to at least SPX 860, if not 870.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:15:12 PM

YM long entry alert!

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:14:38 PM

YM long setup alert with YM 7,986

Go long at 7,978.

Stop is 7,958. Target is 8,050

Jane Fox : 2/5/2009 3:12:06 PM

VIX breaks above its blue trendline so ES's break is probably not a head fake and should have follow through.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:10:50 PM

YM 7,968

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:04:05 PM

YM 7,997

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:03:54 PM

NYSE a/d 1,936/988

Jane Fox : 2/5/2009 3:02:33 PM

Here is an example of when you can use the VIX to trade ES. If ES breaks below its blue trendline you want to see the VIX break above its blue line as well. If the VIX does not then there is a very good possibility ES will be giving you a head fake. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 3:02:12 PM

YM 5-minute with PINK dynamic Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:57:31 PM

OK, slap a "dynamic" on it. There's one level, and one zone. In the zone 8,007

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:54:53 PM

I know I am ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:54:35 PM

YM 8,018

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:54:25 PM

Keene's probably shaking his head ... (wink)

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 2:54:11 PM

I don't see anything particularly bearish beyond today so if we get another leg down as part of a larger pullback pattern (the downside Fib projection is at SPX 837.44) it set up another rally leg.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:51:23 PM

YM long stopped alert! 8,030

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:50:56 PM

That stop should be raised to 8,030

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:48:32 PM

Swing trade long raise stop alert! ... for the YM to 8,230.

YM 8,052

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 2:47:01 PM

The fact that we're not blasting higher right now right here tells me we might be in a larger a-b-c pullback pattern. If long keep your stops tight since a c-wave down from here will easily take out this afternoon's low.

Jane Fox : 2/5/2009 2:45:20 PM

SPX is up +17.19 DOW +133

Jane Fox : 2/5/2009 2:44:58 PM

Yesterday had the bulls pretty worried that 1-800-support was not going to hold but today they are feeling a whole lot better. Link

Jane Fox : 2/5/2009 2:43:27 PM

NQ is above it previous day highs. ES is testing its PDH but the DOW is lagging.

Jane Fox : 2/5/2009 2:42:43 PM

Markets are well above their respective overnight ranges. Link

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 2:42:05 PM

If it's a bullish price pattern from the afternoon low it needs to be blasting higher right now.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:39:27 PM

Maybe a "suck'em in and spit'em out"

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:39:00 PM

See the potential today?

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:38:39 PM

15-minute and so on.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:38:28 PM

Click out to your 10-min.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:38:09 PM

MACD kicking higher though ... "well above 0.00"

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:37:00 PM

YM slips to 8,044 ... that GREEN trend.

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 2:35:27 PM

Looks like we're going to get an upside resolution from the mid-day consolidation. If it keeps going it could get very strong so switching to the long side would work. But if it fails right here then at least another leg down as part of a larger consolidation pattern could play out. Each side needs to be careful right here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:34:48 PM

YM long raise stop alert! to even.

YM 8,060

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:34:16 PM

YM comes to WKLY Pivot (RSD)

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:33:52 PM

I agree Jane ... just a PTR (pause that refreshes)

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:32:50 PM

YM 8,040 ... day trader's 5-minute Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:26:18 PM

NYSE a/d 1,923/995

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:25:56 PM

YM long let's be tight to start with a stop at 7,998. Target is 8,170 by the close.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:24:58 PM

YM long alert! 8,025

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:15:04 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/5/2009 2:12:38 PM

The VIX is telling us the bulls are just taking a break but should be stepping up to the plate again soon. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:05:07 PM

02:00 Watch at this Link

I slipped in the UUP down in the currency area.

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 2:04:29 PM

Waiting for some evidence of what's next. We either have the pause that refreshes before another rally leg this afternoon or the short-covering rally this morning is not getting any follow through. The pattern of the pullback in SPX is just corrective enough to suggest more upside but NDX looks a little more impulsive in its pullback suggesting a stronger drop back down is coming this afternoon.

I actually like the potential for a decline and therefore a short play here with a stop at a new daily high (which would confirm the pullback is a correction) is a good risk:reward play. Upside potential for NDX remains the 1275 area so don't stay short if we get a new high.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 2:02:02 PM

Traders that are using the UUP by itself ... please, please be aware of what is taking place in the yen.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 1:52:09 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,764/879

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 1:51:58 PM

NYSE a/d 1,877/1,028

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 1:51:03 PM

IBM $92.55 -0.33% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 1:50:45 PM

CSCO $16.26 +2.65% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 1:50:27 PM

UYG $3.25 +5.51% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 1:50:06 PM

BAC $4.74 +0.85% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 1:44:37 PM

YM 60-minute intervals Link

Rather wide, but I want YM traders that may be new to the MM to observe the two trends I've had on this chart for several weeks.

Make the low tie this morning with the XLF.

Day trader's rather "neutral" in here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 1:27:43 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link


Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 1:17:31 PM

Still is for THIS trader.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 1:17:09 PM

AAPL $96.49 +3.14% ... if still bearish the QQQQ/NDX, this used to be a "key stock" for some.

Jane Fox : 2/5/2009 1:16:42 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has been hospitalized for pancreatic cancer surgery, according to media reports Thursday. Ginsburg, 75, was appointed to the high court by President Bill Clinton in 1993.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 1:16:35 PM

USO $28.78 +1.80% ... after alternating days of 01/20/09 termination benchmark. As noted in last night's wrap, forward contracts holding. Sense a turn if on from PBR itself.

Jane Fox : 2/5/2009 1:15:17 PM

Internals have taken an 180 and are very bullish now. DOW is up +129 points Link

Jane Fox : 2/5/2009 1:13:23 PM

Ginsburg in hospital for pancreatic cancer surgery: reports

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 1:02:33 PM

Treausuries reversing PRICE gains from earlier ... about unchanged now.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 12:59:28 PM

NASDAQ NH/NL 2:122 ... 02/02/09 is the comparison #lows traders may want to keep an eye on. If this is the 2nd wave of the up leg, then shouldn't see much more than 164.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 12:52:34 PM

IWM $45.65 +1.91% ... market participants working around that short-term DOWNWARD trend right in here. MORE encouraging for bulls is reclaim of WKLY Pivot and back above 50% of 11/20/08 to 01/06/09 high.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 12:36:36 PM

XLF 60-minute interval Link

After a trade at WKLY R2 last week, I find this mornings action at WKLY S1 encouraging. Work to be done at 11/20/08 low and need some BEARS to start covering positions.

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 12:35:03 PM

Last night I showed the NDX daily chart with what I think is a good setup for the completion of the sideways triangle pattern that's been playing out since October. The e-wave often does a little throw-over and we're getting that today. But as shown on the chart there is the possibility for a stronger rally up to the 1390 area (pink) and therefore we need to be careful which direction to try to trade. NDX daily chart: Link

The price pattern of the bounce from January 20th does not give me the impression that it's impulsive and that means, to me, that we're not going to get the stronger rally leg and instead this should be the completion of the triangle pattern. The wave count that I've got on the 60-min chart shows a corrective wave count with two Fib projections pointing to 1275-1276 for an upside target. But the first Fib projection at 1246.35 has been met and the EW form has been met for a completion of the bounce so stay on your toes if long. NDX 60-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 12:26:23 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 12:15:27 PM

SMH $18.70 +4.70% ... didn't even come back to MONTHLY Pivot. Bears swallowing a bit hard

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 12:14:26 PM

NDX has now broken above its January 28th high (marginally) and that confirms the pullback to the February 2nd low was just a correction and not the start of something bigger to the downside.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 12:13:56 PM

Micron Tech (MU) $4.14 +6.15% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 12:13:17 PM

Disclosure: I currently hold a bullish position in the UYG

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 12:12:09 PM

Swing trade long round up to 1/4 position ... in the ProShares UltraFinancial (UYG) at the offer of $3.25.

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 12:09:54 PM

For SPX the downtrend line from September is at 850.

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 12:08:53 PM

We've clearly got something bullish going on in stocks. This morning's rally is way too strong to be just a correction. NDX is about to take out yesterday's high and then the January 28th high (although it's about to hit the nearly flat downtrend line from those two highs, near 1242.30). Another leg up to match the January 21-28 rally may be what's going to play out. Either that or this is one big head fake to the upside. In either case the wave pattern has become less clear and at the moment there's elevated risk for both sides.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 12:01:20 PM

JPM $24.28 +0.99% ... after session low of $22.49 and not quite a trade at the 11/20/08 low.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 11:58:26 AM

BAC $4.50 -4.25% ... after session low of $3.77. (see last night's Wrap)

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 11:57:25 AM

CSCO $15.97 +0.82% ... still tentative.

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 11:57:11 AM

The DOW continues to cycle around the important 8000 level, currently finding it to be resistance. At about 8018 is the broken uptrend line from November so watch to see if resistance holds. DOW 60-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 11:55:49 AM

SPX 839.62 ... sits on its DAILY Pivot (RSD)

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 11:55:12 AM

XLF $9.06 +0.89% ... back to the DAILY Pivot for a second look.

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 11:39:27 AM

Gold update: it's taking its sweet time to push higher but I still like the upside target for gold near 944, especially if it can get there by Monday where the Fib projection crosses the top of its parallel up-channel from October. Whether it will get there, or fail there, is anyone's guess but it's a setup that I'll want to try shorting. Gold (GC, continuous contract) daily chart: Link

GDX, the gold miners ETF, has a very similar setup except a little more bearish in that its bounce off the October low looks like a rising wedge pattern. I'm watcing this one for a LEAPS put entry (which I'm thinking of raising the upper trigger price to 37.40, from 36.30, for the recommended play in the LEAPS Trader newsletter). GDX daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 11:32:19 AM

YCS $21.51 x $21.59

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 11:30:41 AM

MORE of that might not hurt either.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 11:30:29 AM

FXY 109.87 -1.41% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 11:29:24 AM

XLF 8.94 -0.33% ...

SPX 837.02

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 11:28:30 AM

I think broader equity bulls want the financials to kick back higher right here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 11:25:28 AM

TRIN 1.00 ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 11:10:44 AM

UYG Long ... Stop goes $2.79. Target this time is $3.80.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 11:09:21 AM

Swing trade long alert! 1/8 position in the ProShares Ultra Financials (UYG at the offer of $3.17.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 11:03:28 AM

NASDAQ a/d 1,368/1,050

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 11:03:16 AM

NYSE a/d 1,405/1,441

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 11:00:47 AM

Someone's having fun really jamming the shorts this morning. Gee, let me guess who's involved.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 10:58:31 AM

EIA: Nat. Gas. Storage Table Link ... Draw of 195 Bcf.

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 10:55:41 AM

It remains a short-the-rally market so test these bounces with a short. It would be a high bounce but SPX remains bearish below 845 (78.6% retracement of the decline from yesterday and a downtrend line from the January 28th high).

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 10:52:53 AM

It's possible the move down from yesterday's high to this morning's low completed the 1st wave down of a new decline (yesterday afternoon's bounce was a little large for a 4th wave but it fits). This morning's larger bounce now suggestes that's what we have. SPX has now retraced 38% of the decline (832.19) and a 62% retracement would be just shy of 840. Above that would be a bullish statement. We've certainly got some short covering going on at the moment--looks like too many shorts got caught this morning chasing it lower.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 10:52:44 AM

RLX.X 265.98 +1.72% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 10:50:45 AM

FDO $26.32 -7.02% ... VIX.X 44.82

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 10:50:18 AM

Swing trade put exit alert! the Family Dollar Stores FDO Feb $27.5 Put (FDO-NY) at the bid of $1.75.

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 10:43:13 AM

Two equal legs up for this morning's bounce would be at SPX 828.48. Any higher than that and we'd have some kind of recovery on our hands.

Jane Fox : 2/5/2009 10:34:24 AM

AD Line -1313.

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 10:26:02 AM

The DOW is struggling with a retest of Monday's lows. Quite the difference between the DOW and NDX this week (a bifurcated market like this is not a healthy market).

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 10:25:00 AM

A retest of the broken uptrend line from Monday for SPX would be just under 827.

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 10:23:57 AM

NDX is going for gap closure (1216.26).

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 10:22:03 AM

SPX did in fact jab lower below its uptrend line from November (near 822) and has made a quick recovery back above it. We know where the important line is.

Jane Fox : 2/5/2009 10:19:26 AM

Freddie Mac: 30-yr fixed-rate mortgage average 5.25% Feb. 5

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 10:17:43 AM

The DOW has broken below Monday's low and SPX has retraced a little more than 78.6% of the rally off Monday's low, indicating a high likelihood that it too will break lower. NQ got hammered last night after Cisco's guidance but NDX continues to hold up better than the others and hasn't retraced 62% yet (it's hanging around the 50% retracement at 1205.82).

Jane Fox : 2/5/2009 10:08:34 AM

This is very bearish and no time to try the long side. Sell the rallies if we get any. Link

Jane Fox : 2/5/2009 10:06:20 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Showing persistent troubles for the manufacturing sector, new orders for manufactured goods fell 3.9% in December for the fifth consecutive month of declines -- the longest downward streak since comparable data was first published in 1992, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Economists polled by MarketWatch were looking for a decline of 3.3%. New orders for durable goods fell a revised 3%, compared with a prior estimate of a 2.6% decline. New orders for durable goods also reached five consecutive months of declines for the longest streak since comparable data has been published. Nondurable goods orders in December fell 4.8%, compared with 8.7% in the prior month. Core capital equipment orders fell 3.2% in December, compared with a gain of 1.1% in the prior month. Shipments of manufactured goods in December fell 2.9%, declining for five consecutive months in the longest streak since 1998. Inventories in December fell 1.4%, the largest decline since comparable has been published.

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 10:00:36 AM

SPX tried to hold its uptrend line from Monday but couldn't and now it's breaking its uptrend line from November. It's done this a few times since January 21st so a quick recovery is still possible. But it's the 4th attempt to hold this line and I doubt it will hold this time.

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 9:48:44 AM

NDX is making a strong bounce in what looks like an effort to close this morning's gap. Whether it closes it or not is questionable but what's even more questionable is whether the bounce will hold. It looks more like an effort to push shorts out.

Jane Fox : 2/5/2009 9:39:11 AM

VIX closed yesterday at 43.85 and opens at 45.06

Jane Fox : 2/5/2009 9:37:46 AM

AD line opens bearishly at -872.

Jane Fox : 2/5/2009 9:26:09 AM

Gold is certainly getting the attention of traders lately, it is up another +18.00 overnight. Link

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 9:26:06 AM

After yesterday afternoon's relatively small bounce followed by this morning's gap down it's possible we're going to see continued strong selling today. But ES is currently down 7 points and that would have SPX dropping to support at its uptrend line from Monday morning (near 825). Slightly lower is the more important uptrend line from November that's currently near 823. We'll see how price behaves around that level.

Jane Fox : 2/5/2009 9:25:06 AM

I watched the price of gas fall as Crude was falling from its all time high last July but lately I have noticed the price of gas increasing, and increasing quickly, yet Crude is not.

Crude is down -0.06. Link

Jane Fox : 2/5/2009 9:22:52 AM

The overnight session was not bullish yet it was only bearish for the S&P (ES) and DOW (YM) futures. The NDX (NQ) futures seemed to have held up quite well.

ES and YM both made new ON lows right after the employment data was released at 8:30ET but NQ didn't, it made a higher low. I'm not entirely sure if TF made a lower low like its larger cap brethren but I suspect so.

YM is down -57
ES is down -7.50
NQ is down -19.50 and
TF is down -6.10 Link

Jane Fox : 2/5/2009 9:13:37 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Swiss Re will raise up to 5 billion Swiss francs ($4.3 billion) of fresh capital, including 3 billion francs from Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc., in order to protect its credit rating and balance further write-downs, the reinsurer said Thursday.

Jane Fox : 2/5/2009 9:13:03 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. firms cut back on their employees' working hours in the fourth quarter, keeping productivity growth rising faster than expected and suppressing output, according to Labor Department data released Thursday.

Productivity in the non-farm business sector increased at a 3.2% annualized rate as output fell 5.5% and hours worked dropped 8.4%. The decline in output was the largest since 1982 while the decline in hours was the weakest since 1975.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected productivity to increase at a 2.1% annual rate.

Real hourly compensation rose a record 15.6% as inflation moderated. For all of 2008, productivity expanded at a 2.8% pace, the fastest since 2003.

Unit labor costs -- a key gauge of inflationary pressures from labor markets -- rose 1.8%.

Jane Fox : 2/5/2009 9:04:43 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - First-time claims for state unemployment benefits surged in the latest week to the highest level in over 26 years, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The number of initial claims in the week ending January 31 rose 35,000 to 626,000. It's the highest level since the week ended Oct. 30, 1982. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for claims to be relatively steady around 580,000. Claims in the previous week were revised to an increase of 6,000 to 591,000 compared with the initial estimate of a rise of 3,000 to 588,000. The four-week average of initial claims rose 39,000 to 582,250. Meanwhile, the number of Americans receiving state jobless benefits rose 20,000 to a record 4.79 million in the week ending January 24. The four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 44,000 to 4.67 million.

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 12:21:33 AM

Thursday's pivot table: Link

Wednesday's high near SPX 852 is the key level to the upside now. A break back above that level would also be a break above the downtrend line from September and would be bullish for at least a run up to 886 (if not much higher). But so far the price pattern continues to unfold bearishly as I've been expecting since the January high. The next big move should be down with a strong decline that easily breaks below 800. SPX 120-min chart: Link

The sideways triangle pattern for NDX may now be complete and a break below 1167 would confirm that to be the case. If true then we should be on the cusp of a large decline, potentially taking us down into March with downside targets of 940 and 800. The lower target would be a 35% haircut from today's price. NDX daily chart: Link

OI Technical Staff : 2/4/2009 9:59:59 PM

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