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Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 9:49:17 PM

Note volume in USO $28.20 -2.11% today (67.75 million).

Today's action here and oil futures suggest some institutional activity.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 9:46:25 PM

It is now starting to appear that market participants more bearish bias near-term than further out oil futures contracts. At most suggests to me that inventory levels stable in months to come.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 9:43:57 PM

February Crude settled down $1.13, or -2.74% at $40.04.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 9:41:25 PM

April crude oil $46.00 +0.52% ... settled just under its 12/09/08 January termination benchmark of $47.15.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 9:37:31 PM

May crude oil $48.74 +0.74% ... settled at its 12/19/08 January termination benchmark.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 9:37:43 PM

June crude oil $50.35 +0.78% did manage to settle back above its 12/19/08 January termination benchmark of $50.05.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 9:26:49 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 9:17:10 PM

Swing trade long raise stop alert! for the remaining ProShares Ultra Financial (UYG) position to $3.42 at this time.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 9:07:14 PM

SPX NH/NL tally was 1:3

RUT.X's tally was 5:25

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 9:03:22 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 8:51:04 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 5:03:16 PM

US Bancorp (USB) $16.19 +8.00% ... $16.29 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 5:02:02 PM

Wells Fargo (WFC) $19.14 +17.63% ... $19.15 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 5:01:28 PM

JP Morgan (JPM) $27.67 +12.59% ... $27.67 extended

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 4:58:41 PM

Bank of America (BAC) $6.13 +26.65% ... ticks $6.17 extended

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 4:58:07 PM

Citigroup (C) $3.91 +10.76% ... ticks $3.85 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 4:55:05 PM

CNBC Alert! ... Govt "Bad Bank" To Purchase Up To $500 Billion In Bad Assets

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 4:17:03 PM

UUP 25.71 -0.84% ... SMA traders will note 21-day at $25.64

Keene Little : 2/6/2009 4:09:47 PM

SPX bounced back above its broken uptrend line from yesterday morning but then jabbed down into the closing bell and closed just below the line. Hard to tell whether that has any meaning or not. It also clsoed at its 50-dma (well done on parking it there guys) which naturally leaves us guessing for Monday--gap up and run higher or spin around and tank. I could see either happening but if forced at gunpoint to make a bet I'm going to bet on the failure of the rally (even if it doesn't happen until after a quick jab higher Monday morning).

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 4:04:06 PM

Gooood grrrravy Jane! ... VIX.X 43.65 to the close.

Keene Little : 2/6/2009 3:53:15 PM

Got the head-fake break of the uptrend line from yesterday morning and now a jam into the close. As I said before, I didn't think it would be wise to try shorting this today. There seems to be a concerted effort to jam the shorts out of the market which is what gets us closing at the highs of the day. But these kinds of days have tended to not be kind to the bulls as the following day finds no follow through, no buyers and down she goes. That is of course only one possibility for Monday but I sure don't like this kind of rally in front of market-moving news. Caveat emptor.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 3:44:16 PM

Swing trade long cancel target alert! ... for the remaining ProShares Ultra Financial (UYG) of $3.80.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 3:41:00 PM

Goood grrrravy ... it's trying to do it again.

HIG $12.85 -14.97% ... session high.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 3:35:57 PM

HUI.X 307.47 +2.27% ... juuuuuuust above downard trend. (see yesterday's MM) Easy does it

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 3:29:45 PM

SLV $12.93 +1.41% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 3:28:51 PM

Swing trade long alert! ... for 1/8 position in Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) at the offer of $0.71.

Keene Little : 2/6/2009 3:28:24 PM

Another bounce failure with a lower high would set up a stronger decline into the close so again, tight stops if you're long the market and consider a couple of put options to hold over into Monday if we see the market start to break down into the close. Otherwise we should expect another push higher Monday morning.

Keene Little : 2/6/2009 3:27:09 PM

SPX is now bouncing back up for a potential retest of its broken uptrend line from yesterday morning, currently near 867.

Keene Little : 2/6/2009 3:25:11 PM

A valid question/observation from Barry: S&P Options Pit trader on CNBC awhile ago and said there was heavy call buying the past few days, especially in the financials. He was very skeptical and doubted any move over 870. Guessing those call sellers will not want to pay out. If everyone is already bullish and in, who is left to buy next week?

Yesterday's call/put reading at ISEE was 172. Anything over 150 warns of excessive bullish enthusiasm and call buying. Today's reading has been holding north of 150. These sentiment readings are not good timing tools but after a big rally in front of a weekend with some potentially market-moving news I think I'd be uncomfortable in a long position. At least take home a few put options for protection.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 3:22:21 PM

BIX.X 88.98 +12.75% ... holding WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 3:21:15 PM

INDU/DIA and BIX.X only equity-based I track in Pivot Matrix to not yet see trade at MONTHLY Pivot.

INDU high at this point has been 8312.37, DIA $83.27.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 3:16:27 PM

Certainly want to hold partial UYG into Monday. Get market response to pending announcement.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 3:15:32 PM

TNX.X ... RSD WEEKLY Pivot Levels for next week are ... 2.595, 2.788, Piv= 2.894, 3.087, 3.193

Jane Fox : 2/6/2009 3:14:34 PM

The VIX and ES became "unlinked" earlier today but they seem to have linked back up again and moving in opposite directions. This unlinking does happen, not often but does happen occasionally . Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 3:10:02 PM

Swing trade long sell portion alert! ... for the 10K MM account .. Lets sell long 192 of the current 384 shares at the bid of $3.51.

Keene Little : 2/6/2009 3:08:08 PM

SPX is now threatening to break its uptrend line from yesterday morning.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 3:07:41 PM

10-year finished 2.979. Session high was 3.001%.

No trade at this week's WKLY R2/MONTHLY R1.

Keene Little : 2/6/2009 3:06:10 PM

Time for an update to the key levels. The bulls now need to keep SPX above 852 as a break below that level would turn the bounce off Monday's low into a potential 3-wave correction (which would be confirmed with a break below 820). SPX 60-min chart: Link

The bulls are hanging on so far--the uptrend line from Thursday morning just got tagged and is holding ((865). If they can push the market higher, either today or Monday morning, I see some tough resistance in the 883-886 area. Two equal legs up from January 21st is at 886. for the bounce off Monday's low the 2nd leg up would achieve 162% of the 1st leg up at 883. There's an important Gann Square of Nine level at 883 (square to the October 2007 high of 1576 and October 2002 low of 768). But as shown in pink, there remains the potential for a rally up to 900 to tag the downtrend line from November.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 3:04:27 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,953/797

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 3:04:07 PM

NYSE a/d 2,477/576

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 2:46:37 PM

XLF $9.73 +6.80% ... at trend

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 2:45:33 PM

BIX.X 89.50 +13.41% ... QRTRLY S1 (RSD) ahead at 93.61.

UYG $3.55 +11.59% ... will check target calibration.

Keene Little : 2/6/2009 2:44:15 PM

The little reaction downward after retesting the broken uptrend line looks bearish. But I wouldn't doubt seeing an effort to hold the market up into the close so attempting a short play could be difficult. By the same token I would have my stop on a long play tucked up tight right now.

Keene Little : 2/6/2009 2:41:33 PM

It could be my bearish bias about the shape of the bounce pattern off the January low, and what looks like a potential completion of it this afternoon, but I have this feeling the market is setting itself up for disappointment with the bank rescue plan idea that will be announced this weekend. Buy the rumor, sell the news?

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 2:40:11 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Keene Little : 2/6/2009 2:38:38 PM

The first chink in the bull's armor is the fact that SPX has broken its uptrend line from yesterday afternoon and is now attempting to rally back up to it, currently near today's high. A failure with a retest of it would be bearish for at least a larger pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 2:26:56 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) $45.11 +0.73% ... WKLY Pivot holding sellers at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 2:26:03 PM

USO $28.66

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 2:04:01 PM

IWM $47.02 +3.63% ... sellers seem to have vanished. IWM-CU $2.79 x $2.82

RVX.X 48.01

Keene Little : 2/6/2009 2:01:15 PM

SPX has pushed up to the top of its rising wedge and the move up from yesterday morning now is a 5-wave move. From a very small timeframe perspective, the move up from the pullback low near 12:20 PM could use one more push higher and then we'd have the setup for a stronger reversal. There's an important Gann Square of Nine number is 874 (so potentially strong resistance there).

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 2:00:47 PM

Oooooooeeeee ...

Keene Little : 2/6/2009 1:54:44 PM

As an indication of the willingness to take on risk, GOOG remains a good stock to keep an eye on and it has turned bullish with the broader market. It finally pushed above resistance at 353 and today climbed above 364.95 which is where the bounce off the November low had two equal legs up. GOOG daily chart: Link

The next Fib projection that could cause trouble is at 375 which is the first Fib projection for the a-b-c move up from January 20th (where wave c = 62% of wave a). The next Fib projection is at 401.58 for equality in the two legs up from January. But from an EW perspective, the previous 4th wave is oftentimes resistance so I've identified that on the chart as the zone between 372 and 395. Once GOOG finishes it's bounce, wherever that may be, it will fully retrace the move up from November.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 1:52:24 PM

UNG $19.69 +2.39% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 1:52:12 PM

USO $29.54 +2.74% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 1:51:40 PM

VIX.X 41.87

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 1:51:11 PM

Swing trade put exit partial alert! ... dump one (1) of the CHK Mar $17.50 Puts (CHK-OW) at the bid of $1.45.

CHK $18.28 +2.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 1:33:44 PM

SPX and VIX.X 60-minute intervals Link

Jane Fox : 2/6/2009 1:32:57 PM

DOW is up 221 points.

Jane Fox : 2/6/2009 1:23:44 PM

Here is what McMillan says about the VIX and SPX (of course he is talking about the daily charts). " Volatility indices are in a neutral range as well. Usually, the $VIX chart and the $SPX chart would be "upside down" versions of each other, but that's not the case at the current time. Both are showing a flat support line underneath and a declining trend line above. If $VIX were to close below 38, that would be bullish for the market. And, if $VIX were to break out above 50, then that would have bearish implications."

So I have put on a fib retracement from its all time high to January's lows and then tried to connect some swing highs and lows Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 1:10:45 PM

ES/SPX/SPY traders ... you've got a verly clear test now. Check out your 60-minute intervals.

Keene Little : 2/6/2009 1:08:51 PM

We can never know how the market will react to news but what's interesting about the SPX 15-min chart I posted, which is calling for a top to the bounce off Monday's low, is that it's foretelling a negative reaction to the news about the Senate vote this afternoon on the fiscal stimulus package and/or the new and improved bank rescue plan coming out this weekend from the Treasury (wonder if Geithner will approve a measure to allow the banks to avoid paying their taxes).

Jane Fox : 2/6/2009 1:04:27 PM

Here is another classic example of the MACD falling while price is moving sideways, which breaks with how we usually read MACD divergences and is considered (at least by me) to be bullish. I just wish the VIX would get on board and this market would be so clear today. Link

Jane Fox : 2/6/2009 1:01:32 PM

I don't like charts with all this "stuff" on them but bear with me for a while. First of all I have left the retracement on from the all time highs to last year's lows, I think the 23.80% fib level is significant because the market found resistance there (January 6th swing high). Then we have some trendlines that need to be heeded, the first being the magenta line that connects a swing high from last September to the January 6th swing high (this line also was resistance on January 28th). It is significant that this trendline was breached today.

Next is the blue trendline that connects the November 4th swing high to the January 6th and could certainly be resistance if/when SPX reaches it.

However, the first level of resistance the SPX will find is at the black trendline that does not connect highs but is the January 28th swing high.

If the SPX wants to get through all this resistance it needs to find some serious buyers. Link

Keene Little : 2/6/2009 12:58:45 PM

So far I'm looking at the rally off Monday's low as an A-B-C bounce, as shown on this SPX 15-min chart: Link . The leg up from yesterday's low would be the c-wave and needs to be a 5-wave move. The current consolidation near the high fits well as a 4th wave and we still need to see the 5th wave to complete wave C. Wave C is forming a rising wedge so a high just short of the January 28th high at 877.86 could form a double top. If there are negative divergences associated with that top it will add confidence for a short play entry.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 12:43:09 PM

Could be some STRANGLE traders on the VIX.X too, taking proft this morning at MONTHLY 38.2.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 12:37:34 PM

Interesting note Jane ...

IWM just $0.43 away from entry point of 01/28/09, yet IWM-CU about $1.40 less.

Analysis : May be call selling bias.

Keene Little : 2/6/2009 12:35:42 PM

After reaching its Fib target for the 5th wave of the move up from yesterday afternoon (actually, pennies shy of the 864.44 target) I've been watching the pullback for some clues as to what's next. It's been relatively quiet trading so far and I can't say yet I'm seeing any indication that we may have seen the high for the bounce. If we continue to consolidate near the high and the uptrend line from yesterday morning holds, currently near 856 and climbing, then expect another push higher.

A break below 855 would be a heads up that the rally could be in trouble. Below 850 (near yesterday's high) would start to warn that the bounce off yesterday's low has finished and below 840 would confirm it.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 12:34:43 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 12:28:52 PM

Hartford down on renewed capital woes ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 12:27:31 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 12:23:04 PM

Did this recently on 01/23/09 then bounced to 01/28/09 high of $18.17.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 12:21:47 PM

HIG $11.07 ... sits on 61.8% of 11/20/08 to 01/06/09 range.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 12:20:14 PM

Hartford Financial (HIG) $11.09 -26.57% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 12:18:35 PM

IUX.X 116.01 -0.74% ... probes morning low. Undercuts DAILY Pivot (RSD) 116.32

Jane Fox : 2/6/2009 12:17:14 PM

We are seeing a huge divergence between the VIX and the S&P futures (ES); these two should be moving in opposite directions. Link This would be quite bearish if it were not for the very very strong AD volume (trajectory moving up a 45 degree angle) and AD line at +1725. What this is telling us though we will not have a runaway bull market today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 11:57:32 AM

NYSE Daily Ratio at 10:00 benchmark was 13.00%

NASDAQ's was 14.7%

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 11:56:45 AM

01/28/09 Closing Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 11:43:13 AM

CHK $17.64 -1.39% ... CHK-OW $1.75 x $1.80

SEC correction to CHK price quote at MM 11:33:28

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 11:34:42 AM

UNG $19.25 +0.10% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 11:34:07 AM

Disclosure: I currently hold bearish position in CHK.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 11:33:41 AM

VIX.X 42.85

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 11:33:28 AM

Swing trade put alert! ... for two (2) of the Chesapeake Energy CHK March $17.50 Puts (CHK-OW) at the offer of $1.80.

CHK $17.21 -0.89% ...

Jane Fox : 2/6/2009 11:04:27 AM

AD Line is a +1639.

Jane Fox : 2/6/2009 11:03:25 AM

Here are your overnight charts. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 11:03:23 AM

VXN.X 41.92

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 11:00:02 AM

Swing trade call alert! ... for two (2) of the SanDisk SNDK April $10 Calls (SWQ-DB) at the offer of $1.99.

SNDK $10.87 +8.59% ...

Keene Little : 2/6/2009 10:55:20 AM

The NDX 120-min chart shows it bounced right up to the trend line running along the lows in December (where the rally stopped on January 28th) but slightly higher is the 1275-1276 Fib target so another push higher could do it. NDX 120-min chart: Link

The daily chart chart shows that internal trend line a little better: Link

Keene Little : 2/6/2009 10:50:13 AM

The move up from yesterday afternoon ideally needs another minor new high to complete a 5-wave move up (I'm looking at an SPX 5-min chart). Equality between the 1st and 5th waves would be at 864.44.

Jane Fox : 2/6/2009 10:41:26 AM

This is one of those days when you have to respect the the AD volume's trajectory. Internals are very bullish and telling you to buy the dips. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 10:26:52 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/6/2009 10:25:21 AM

BIX has bounced sharply off yesterday morning's low but so far it fits as just a correction since it's only into the 3rd wave up (which could be the c-wave of an a-b-c bounce). Two equal legs up for the bounce would be at 88.37 and a 62% retracement of last week's decline is at 88.12. That will be an important level for BIX to get above otherwise a failure from the 88 area will confirm the bounce is just a correction to the decline. Back below 82 would be a heads up the bounce is failing and below yesterday afternoon's low at 78.48 would confirm it. BIX 60-min chart: Link

Keene Little : 2/6/2009 10:08:16 AM

Two equal legs up from February 2nd for SPX is at 859.89. This morning's high so far is 860.92 so stay aware that we might not get anymore. But a push higher opens up the possibility to push up to 870 and above that to 886.

The upside target I've been mentioning for NDX, at 1275-1276, is still about 8 points higher.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 10:02:28 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Stopped on 1/8 position short in MU.

Jane Fox : 2/6/2009 9:56:17 AM

The SPX is heading back to the very important swing high made January 28th at 877. If it breaks this high then the higher low at 812 is confirmed and the trend reverses to up and the probability that this market will test its January 6th high at 943 increases substantially. Link

Jane Fox : 2/6/2009 9:52:32 AM

AD ratio is a very bullish 7.61

Jane Fox : 2/6/2009 9:51:59 AM

Internals are very bullish this morning. Look at the TRIN! 0.56 WOW Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 9:51:53 AM

Swing trade short stop alert! ... for the 1/8 positions in shares of Micron Tech (MU) at $4.20

Keene Little : 2/6/2009 9:43:23 AM

The next upside price target for SPX is just shy of 870 where the move up from yesterday morning would have two equal legs up. The key level to the downside is now yesterday afternoon's low (839.83).

Keene Little : 2/6/2009 9:40:55 AM

And they're off. The first upside target for SPX at 859 is only a stone's throw away now.

Jane Fox : 2/6/2009 9:40:03 AM

AD line is a bullish +1295.

Keene Little : 2/6/2009 9:22:56 AM

It looks like the reaction from the stock market to the dismal jobs numbers is that they're just glad it wasn't worse. Either that or it's because the numbers are so bad that it can't get any worse and therefore this MUST be the bottom of the recession. Hope is a wonderful thing.

Jane Fox : 2/6/2009 9:15:51 AM

Crude is consolidating at yearly lows suggesting it will break to new yearly lows before it rallies. However, MACD suggests otherwise so this is a market you should be watching and not trading - yet. Link

Jane Fox : 2/6/2009 9:04:48 AM

At first glance you would have to say the overnight session was rather uneventful, bullish but uneventful but once you overlay the news out at 8:30, the news the unemployment rate jumped to 7.6% and the non farm payrolls fell to a 34 year low and you see the market rally you realize this is very bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 2/6/2009 8:56:28 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The fury of the recession intensified in January, as the unemployment rate jumped to 7.6% while nonfarm payrolls fell by the largest amount in 34 years, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls fell by a seasonally adjusted 598,000 in January after a revised loss of 577,000 in December, the government said. It's the largest payroll loss since December 1974, according to a survey of workplaces. Payrolls fell by 597,000 in November.

"Job losses were large and widespread across the major industry sectors," said Keith Hall, head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Manufacturing saw its largest decline in 26 years.

About 3.6 million jobs have been lost since the recession began just over a year ago; about half of them have been lost in the past three months following the collapse of Lehman Bros.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 2:41:33 AM

Oh! Grandma. Happy 91st Birthday! Good news too! Treasury Yields are inching back up and if things stay around here, you'll have a little more interest income coming your way. I'll shop for some CD rates before I visit you in a couple of weeks.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 2:24:47 AM

My 10/22/07 Market Wrap Link (which I am going to review)

10-year Yield was under that trend (see 01:16:57 AM)

Jim's 11/03/07 ... Now Jim, where's that 10-year yield? It was 11/02/07 that on a DAILY interval bar, the 10-year yield juuust undercut the 09/10/07 low yield and some horizontal YIELD support (PRICE breaking some horizontal resistance) Link

Then my 11/05/07 Link "Big Banks" ... Go figures eh? Good grrravy ... Citigroup $35.90 -4.85% "Selling them (CDOs) at distressed values wouldn't make sense at all."

Fascinating, fascinating indeed.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 2:03:44 AM

Dorsey's BPALL rose a tad to 35.73% from 35.61%. That's on roughly 6000 stocks, so ... about 7 reversing higher PnF buy signals. Still "bull correction" and needs 40% to reverse back up to "bull confirmed".

Hey, when you look at the Bullish % charts, see how many columns of alternating X's and O's there have been in 2007 and 2008 compared to past year?

Volatility like we haven't seen in a loooooooong time.

Small positions, and take it when you can get it!

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 1:55:48 AM

What I'm trying to do with my commentary and trade profiles is try and teach by example of how to trade a rather DIFFICULT market right now. Bring in a LOT of observations that I have used over the years, try and sort through them, to then try and MAKE MONEY.

I've only made money by selling high first and then buying back lower. Or buying low first and then selling higher.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 1:51:17 AM

Dorsey/Wright's BPSPX edged up 0.20%, so a net gain of 1 stock to a reversing higher PnF buy signal. No change on chart since 1/28/08 (was 53.60% actual that day) Link

Hey ... on 11/20/08 Dorsey's BPSPX was 10.46% actual, 11/21/08 was 8.45%. It could have gone back to 2% and can always go to 0.00%, but think "who had the RISK" ... RISK/REWARD, RISK/REWARD.


Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 1:35:44 AM

I'm tired ... you know what the "fun" and sometimes humbling part is?

Yep ... I was at some other OI letter at the time (Index Skybox? PremierInvestor? Gosh its been so long) ... Check this one out! Jimmy B! Link

And this! BPNYSE Link

Or this BPCOMPQ Link

Or this (which may be flawed due to dividend adjusting) $BPSPX Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 1:16:57 AM

10-year YIELD and SPX (reflection of an economy) ... WEEKLY Intervals with what I believe, based on years of observation Link

No? Don't believe me? FOMC Meetings Calendars, statements, and minutes Link

12/09/03 Link

06/30/04 Link Raises 25 bp to 1.25% ... TNX= ~4.458% , SPX= ~1,125

08/10/07 Link Alllll_rt! BOND MARKET just seemed to KNOW

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2009 12:22:49 AM

CRB Index Link ... a pretty good place to begin any analysis regarding "deflation" or "inflation" ... Remember ... BOTH can be good.

The 10-year YIELD Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 11:53:20 PM

SPX 10-minute intervals ... Link

Look at this chart, look at the trends.

Now, I "winked" at Keene this afternoon as YM traders had a pretty good bull day trade going until about 02:35 PM. You've been there, I've been there and Keene's been there. You trade long enough ... we've all been there.

Is the SPX "solid as rock" at upward trend? NO! ... Was SPX "solid at trend" around 02:30-40 PM ET? No! But even the YM and likely the ES looked as if they were going higher.

YM bulls might have gotten a decent trade to the from that 03:00-10 area.

Right now I would NOT trade ES off my YM signals. YM trade signals are YM specific. I try and know where everything is relative to their regular session derived pivot levels and what's going on "inside" (key sectors, stocks).

Keene Little : 2/5/2009 11:31:10 PM

Friday's pivot table: Link

With SPX parked under its downtrend line from September and NDX parked just above its downtrend line from November the market is poised to make a move. We could see a quick head-fake move first thing in the morning (including a gap) that then gets reversed quickly so it won't be easy to get an entry. But once the initial move identifies itself (as an impulse) then I'll look to get in after a correction so we'll just let price lead the way.
SPX 120-min chart: Link
NDX 120-min chart: Link
NDX daily chart: Link

I think the NDX pattern is the clearest at the moment since its pattern is actually a good setup for an immediate move down Friday morning or it will rally up to the 1275-1276 area to set up a a good short play. Be careful of an initial move down to correct Thursday's rally that then gets reversed for another leg up (which is why I want to see an impulsive move before trying to figure out which direction should stick).

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 11:25:41 PM

VIX.X 5-minute interval recap with QCharts' Daily Pivot Levels turned on Link

EXAMPLE: When you play a STRANGLE, you may have to be ready to execute at any second. It just turned out that maybe CSCO was a "key earnings" to trade such a strateg around (not just the VIX.X, but CSCO, or NDX/QQQQ, VXN.X). PROPERLY calculated pivot levels can give traders the NEEDED EDGE over your competition, MAINLY the institutional computers.

I (Jeff Bailey) like to TAKE IT WHEN I GET IT, and the sooner the better (see Tues in/Wed out on the FDO-NY) in regard to PREMIUM "jack" on the quick move, tie with VIX.X a bit).

For VIX.X Feb. STRANGLE, I'd probably have been GONE on the CALL side after the VIX.X couldn't muster above the MONTHLY Pivot and "zone".

Put side? Maybe its gone too back at the WKLY Pivot for break-even.

Jimmy C "ba, ba, ba boo-yah!" would have been a WKLY R1, or WKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 10:57:06 PM

Here's how the VIX.X Montage did today for a $42.50 Put/$45 Call strangle.

Do the VIX.X highs/lows look at all familiar to you PIVOT traders?

Remember ... VIX.X only runs REGULAR session. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 10:38:42 PM

Oh real equick ... EDUCATIONAL update on "VIX.X strangle" idea from yesterday.

Here's how the VIX.X option montage looked at TUESDAY's close. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 10:35:32 PM

OK, what if the FXE "elevates" to $135.00 into expiration. What does that do to the UUP in part?

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 10:33:59 PM

Quick UUP, FXE, FXY and FXB "Max Pain" theory tabulations, even though there is VERY LITTLE option open interest (capital at risk) ...

UUP = $25.00
FXE= $135
FXY= $110
FXB= $142

Jeff Bailey : 2/5/2009 10:25:37 PM

UUP, FXE, FXY, FXB (see 09:25 and 09:34 PM first) ... with same type of DATE range retracement Link

Now, your eye's "pop" and you say "what a mess" as the FXE, FXY and FXB each alone look NOTHING like the UUP, and THEIR RETRACEMENT look NOTHING like the U.S. EQUITY INDEXES from 11/20/08 to 01/06/09.

Ah, but do you see something that MIGHT be set to happen?

What about ... FXY= 01/06/09 high, where at LEAST that inflection low would equal SOMETHING we saw in the major averages. On 01/28/09 in the Market Monitor I thought the yen looked like one of the best shorts on the board.

Now! That night in extended session, I did try a YM long, but I/we got stopped for -11 (8,266-8,255).

And how about the FXB to its 11/20/06 low (see the similarity of 11/20/06 and 11/21/06 bar with you INDU/SPX/NDX?)

Main point right now is that "the dollar strength/weakness probably isn't equivalent to EQUITY MARKET weakness/strength.

It the BOND MARKET that needs closer analysis. That was THE SIGNAL for one of the greatest bull markets from 2003-2007.

OI Technical Staff : 2/5/2009 9:59:59 PM

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