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Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 5:30:38 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 5:16:49 PM

Last look at March Crude Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 4:24:31 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

CLOSED out the CHK-OW at $2.65.

UNH-NT expired.

1/8 LONG on PBR up by the PBR-PK.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 4:18:34 PM

UNH official close $27.98, so should get whopping $0.05 returned to account. I will not be exercising.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 4:04:49 PM

Swing trade put raist target alert! ... for the UNH-NT to $0.10

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 4:03:48 PM

UNH $28

UNH-NT 0.00 x $0.10

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 3:58:27 PM

Swing trade put raise target alert! ... for the UNH-NT to $0.15.

UNH $27.96

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 3:55:03 PM

Swing trade put raise target alert! ... for the UNH-NT to $0.20.

UNH $27.91

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 3:47:16 PM

HMO 1,052

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 3:47:03 PM

VIX.X 49.78

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 3:46:51 PM

Swing trade put raise target alert! ... for the UNH-NT to $0.25.

UNH $27.96 -2.40% ...

Keene Little : 2/20/2009 3:36:12 PM

The bounce off this morning's low for NDX has the potential to be a completed A-B-C bounce (expanded flat correction with this afternoon's low being slightly lower than this morning's), as labeled on its 10-min chart: Link . That's why there is the potential to see the market get slammed to the downside (probably starting with a big gap down) if the market drops back down to today's lows. The 60-min chart shows a very bearish count, labeled in dark red, that calls for an "unwinding" of the 3rd waves to the downside: Link

The pink wave count is looking for a stronger rally (albeit choppy) into mid March. A rally next week would likely be choppy and weak whereas a decline would be strong. If you want to hold an open position over the weekend you need to know where the greater risk resides--being long the market.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 3:33:39 PM

About 42- for the options.

Things can still ge real "funky"

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 3:32:01 PM

32-minutes. 32-minutes to the close.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 3:31:45 PM

HMO.X 1,049

UNH $27.84

Keene Little : 2/20/2009 3:21:00 PM

We've got about 45 minutes to go so who knows how this will end but so far we've got the bullish hammers at support and that sets us up for a rally next week. Whether it will be just a little bounce (or sideways consolidation) or something bigger we can't know yet. The pink wave count on the SPX daily chart shows the potential for a one to two-week choppy rally up to the downtrend line from January 6th, somewhere up around 825-830. The more immediately bearish potential is for only a small bounce this afternoon to be followed by a market that gets slammed back down next week. Considering where we are I think it's a bit risky either side over the weekend. SPX daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 3:16:29 PM

47-minutes to the close!

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 3:15:56 PM

Swing trade put raise target alert! ... for the UNH-NT to $0.35.

UNH $28.08 -1.95% ... $0.05 x $0.15.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 2:57:46 PM

HUI.X 321.70 +3.74% ...

Keene Little : 2/20/2009 2:55:19 PM

We've now got a 5-wave move up off today's low so it shouldn't make it too much further before we start a pullback to correct this afternoon's bounce but the low is in for now.

Keene Little : 2/20/2009 2:45:07 PM

I agree with Jeff. I think if the PPT was involved here they'd be holding bonds up as well (keep rates low). It looks more like some long bond holders taking some profits this afternoon as those short the stock market also take some profits off the table. Could be a little rotation going on as well. Metals are pulling back so profit taking all around.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 2:31:21 PM

I think bears simply got "too profitable" and here they come.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 2:30:36 PM

IMPERATIVE to use position size

Keene Little : 2/20/2009 2:29:45 PM

Yep, I'd say the PPT pulled the plug on the shorts. Now watch the downtrend line from last Friday, currently near SPX 777.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 2:27:48 PM

So many "optiions" and strategies for traders and investors.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 2:25:37 PM

Swing trade long alert! ... for 1/8 position in shares of Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) at the offer of $26.31.

Use the PUT as some protection!

Keene Little : 2/20/2009 2:22:57 PM

Getting a strong little push back up now. Question is whether this is a 2:15 PM head fake before continuing lower or have the rescuers arrived? I'm watching to see if we get a small 5-wave move up before declaring a bottom is in.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 2:22:44 PM

Cabela's (CAB) $7.97 +33.72% ... not what I would have feared. Tried logging on to site last night to shop for spring turkey products and site was down.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 2:18:52 PM

Volume at the big board just over 5.08 billion. Still not overly "climactic" ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 2:09:38 PM

One reason for the WFC-GS is "best of breed" providing some POTENTIAL hedge for the account.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 2:06:41 PM

WFC-GS ... No stop for now, target a bounce to $18.00.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 2:05:48 PM

VIX.X 51.42 +9.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 2:04:13 PM

Swing trade call option alert! ... for one (1) of the Wells Fargo WFC July $12.50 Calls (WFC-GS) at the offer of $2.35.

WFC $9.44 -21.31% ...

Jane Fox : 2/20/2009 2:00:25 PM

Gold breaks through 1000. Now trading at 1004.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2009 1:55:49 PM

The DOW could very easily close today at the lowest point since April 1997. Yikes!! Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:52:19 PM

dj- Peru's Central Bank intervenes in Forex Market

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:51:29 PM

dj- Venezuela's Chavez: Social spending to go on despite crisis
Oil prices remain too low.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:48:26 PM

HUI.X 326.70 +5.35% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:47:54 PM

VIX.X 51.624 +9.68% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:47:37 PM

Swing trade put exit alert! ... for the CHK-OW at the bid of $2.65.

CHK $15.52 -7.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:43:30 PM

dj- S&P: Issuers Vulnerable To Potential Default Climbs To 265

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said the number of issuers vulnerable to potential default jumped in the latest month to 265, more than three-fourths of which are in the U.S., as volatility in the credit markets and recessionary conditions around the world continue to erode credit quality. The ratings firm said the number of issuers deemed as weakest links - those rated B- or lower with a negative outlook or on watch for potential downgrade - has increased for 12 consecutive months. The number jumped by 19 from last month. The sectors of media and entertainment, forest products and building materials, and retail and restaurants are considered most vulnerable. But the oil-and-gas exploration-and-production sector had the biggest increase in weakest links month-over-month at 7. Of the 265 weakest links, which have combined debt worth of $485.74 billion, 205 are in the U.S., followed by Europe with 19. Latin America had the fewest with six. S&P said corporate defaults year-to-date have more than tripled from a year earlier and already equal a quarter of all defaults last year as rates continue to surge and refinancings remain difficult to attain. Through this week, 32 defaults affecting debt worth more than $49 billion have been recorded, versus 125 defaults in all of 2008. In comparison, only 22 defaults were recorded in 2007, down from 30 the previous year. Of the 2009 defaults, 23 are from the U.S., five are from emerging markets, two are from Canada and one is from France. The ratings firm expects the U.S. corporate speculative-grade default rate to jump to 13.9% by January 2010, which would set a record high in the 28-year history of the series. For the rate to reach that level, 206 issuers would have to default during the period. Last month, the default rate hit 4.66%, up from 4.09% in December. Some of the recent defaults include Smurfit-Stone Container Corp. (SSCCQ), Foamex LP, Spectrum Brands Inc. (SPCB) and Station Casinos Inc.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2009 1:40:42 PM

There is only one market still trading in its ON range, NQ (NDX futures). Link

Keene Little : 2/20/2009 1:40:46 PM

SPX tagged the bottom of its parallel down-channel shown on the 60-min chart earlier and is trying to bounce. We'll see if it can hold. The price pattern suggests we could see another new low this afternoon. I'm wondering if the PPT will step into the market in the last hour today and help drive it back up (for a recovery into the weekned, lest Mom and Pop get too panicky).

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:40:10 PM

dj- CNN rejects ad celebrating Obama's life

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:38:36 PM

BIX.X 51.78 -14.17% ... edges closer to QRTRLY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:27:03 PM

VIX.X 51.93 +10.30% ....

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:26:50 PM

CHK $15.56 -6.93% ...

CHK-OW $2.60 x $2.65

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:24:01 PM

VIX.X alert! 52.03

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:23:41 PM

13-week Treasury Yield ($IRX.X) down 4.5 bp at 0.255%

Keene Little : 2/20/2009 1:22:05 PM

The bottom of a parallel down-channel for price action since the February 9th high is currently near 753. A drop below the trend line along the lows from last week, currently near 760, is already starting to look a little bearish (unless it turns right back up and leaves a bullish little throw-under) but a break below the bottom of a parallel down-channel would show the selling is accelerating. That would support the more bearish dark red wave count that calls for a strong selloff into next week. SPX 60-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:22:00 PM

Some day in the futures we'll hear "I told you so!"

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:21:23 PM

$HUI.X 324.94 +4.78% ... holding tough.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:20:57 PM

SMH $16.11 -0.12% ... edges red.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:19:21 PM

Libor Rates Link

Jane Fox : 2/20/2009 1:09:50 PM

Bery bery bearish. Link

Jane Fox : 2/20/2009 1:09:08 PM

By the way the VIX is now making new daiy highs so this decline has the power to continue on down.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:08:27 PM

HMO.X 1,032.41 -4.98% ... sits on its WKLY S2.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2009 1:07:51 PM

That would have been a very nice fade if you sold ES's 12:15 high at 768. ES is now 758.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:07:39 PM

UNH $27.78 -3.03% ... has once again tested Red#1 and WKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:05:53 PM

XNG 331.87 -5.05% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:05:35 PM

SMH $16.17 +0.24%

HUI.X 324.33 +4.58% ...

Keene Little : 2/20/2009 1:01:55 PM

If the market works its way lower into the close the DOW could make it down to its October 2002 low at 7197, a little less than 100 points lower.

Keene Little : 2/20/2009 12:50:14 PM

The market could just settle lower as the day progresses but with the building bullish divergences at the new lows it's looking like we're putting in a low rather than preparing to break down. SPX so far is sliding down the downtrend line along the lows from last week (the one that will be near 758 by the end of the day).

Keene Little : 2/20/2009 12:23:58 PM

It's way too early to know but if today were to rally back up near yesterday's close we'd be left we a bullish hammer candlestick at support (DOW 7400 is near the March 2003 low and SPX 768 is the October 2002 low).

Jane Fox : 2/20/2009 12:17:56 PM

AD line has now "improved" to -2200.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2009 12:16:55 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The trustee liquidating Bernard Madoff's investment firm says his investigation has found no evidence that any securities were purchased on behalf of customers in at least 13 years.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 12:13:16 PM

I have to step away for about an hour.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 12:12:41 PM

Swing trade put raise target alert! ... for the United Health UNH Feb $28 Put (UNH-NT) to $1.30 from $1.75.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 12:09:46 PM

dj- Sri Lanka Shuts Intl. Airport After Air Raid

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 12:06:49 PM

UNH ... Feb expiration trader's chart with a lower 5-MRT and past observations after entry. Also a Level II Link

Might be helpful if you've got some Feb puts at/near the money in other trades.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2009 11:55:35 AM

ES has just made a new daily low but the VIX did not make a new daily high so ES's decline from the 772.50 high (made at around 10:45) should end soon. WE are still in a "sell the rallies" environment so this just may give you a chance to get into a short. Fading is a hard way to trade because your timing needs to be really good and is why I much prefer momentum trading.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 11:47:53 AM

dj- SEC ALLOWS EXTENSION OF CREDIT THROUGH TALF

The Securities and Exchange Commission has granted exemptions to primary dealers such as Goldman Sachs so they can extend credit to purchasers of asset-backed securities through the New York Federal Reserve's Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 11:41:07 AM

Wells Fargo (WFC) $9.84 -18.06% ... plunging still. New 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 11:39:14 AM

Freeport-McMoran (FCX) $27.62 -2.26% ... still holding its 21-day SMA ($26.99), 50-day SMA at $25.46.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 11:37:51 AM

Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (RIO) $13.63 -7.40% ... probes its rising 50-day SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 11:34:44 AM

dj- GM'S OPEL INDICATES NEED FOR MORE STATE AID

General Motors' German Opel unit says that market conditions have deteriorated dramatically since it asked for state aid in November, suggesting it may need significantly higher guarantees than anticipated at the time.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 11:32:33 AM

dj- OBAMA, BIDEN TO ADDRESS LAWMAKERS

President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden will host around 100 lawmakers, budget experts and administration officials at its "fiscal responsibility summit" on Monday.

Keene Little : 2/20/2009 11:26:16 AM

SPX dropped down to the trend line along the lows again and is trying to bounce. The wave pattern for the decline from yesterday can now be considered complete so protect profits if you're short and don't want a big bounce to go against you.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 11:22:53 AM

Don't tell that to the NYSE and NASD (Level II) on CDE Jane! They're line up like rats.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2009 11:17:30 AM

AD line is a very bearish -2316

Jane Fox : 2/20/2009 11:16:37 AM

Internals are still very bearish so don't think about any long positions. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 11:03:48 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Note: UNH-NT expires at today's close. Will monitor and contemplate possible exercise.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 10:59:02 AM

dj- Obama to Mayors: "American People Are Watching" How Money Is Spent

Keene Little : 2/20/2009 10:56:56 AM

The last 30 minutes look like a small bear flag so antoher leg down looks to be next (dropping as I type).

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 10:50:06 AM

dj- Citigroup: Making progress to reduce assets on balance sheet

C $2.05 -18.32% ... new 52-weeker.

Linda Piazza : 2/20/2009 10:49:48 AM

Earlier in the month, Jeff asked if I'd still been watching the TED spread. I had been and had, in fact, been watching it with particular attention. It had reached a support zone from which it had bounced in the past, sometimes only after a retest a week or two later, with disastrous consequences for equities when it did bounce. I say "consequences," but that's too strong a word. It may be that one action isn't a consequence of another but just a coincident happening. Still, if the TED spread is bouncing from that support level, especially after a retest a week or two later, or else crashing through it, I wanted to know.

It's bouncing. It's bouncing after a retest a week later, a retest that resulted in a lower low with a higher RSI high: bullish divergence for the TED spread. In fact, if the TED spread ends the day above 0.96257 and especially above 0.96935, it will have done something it hasn't done in about a month: confirmed a move above a previous peak high. Here's the chart, and you can click on the one-month designation to look at the previous peak high: Link As I type, the delayed quote for the TED spread is 97.08, but that Bloomberg chart is a line chart drawn off the day's closes each day, so all we can say right now is that the TED spread is currently testing a previous peak high. If it manages a higher high, I see potentially strong resistance in the 1.45-1.55 zone, too. This resistance is from an ascending trendline off the last two years' lows that the TED spread broke through in late January on its way down to test other support and from another area of peak highs. I think, until the TED spread breaks above that 1.45-ish resistance, we have to consider the possibility that the TED spread is just rising into a "kiss goodbye" kind of test. So, while it's uncomfortable for us to watch and extremely worrisome if it does break above that 1.45 zone, we also have to consider the possibility that this could well be the last hurrah of the severely inflated TED spread values.

Conclusion? The TED spread did bounce from the support levels that it has frequently bounced from with that being a bad omen for the equity markets. It was a bad omen this time, too. Equity bulls need to be aware that there could still be a sharp and painful rise in the TED spread up to test 1.45 and should have their just-in-case plans in effect, if that should happen. Bears need a just-in-case plan, too, though, because this so far has the earmarks of a possible kiss-goodbye test, and kiss-goodbye tests aren't always completed. Today's ongoing test of a previous peak high is by no means a guarantee that the TED spread will manage to maintain values above that previous peak high. It could fail right here as equities begin a bounce.

I don't use the TED spread to market time trades, but I do watch with great interest so that I have a background upon which to make judgments.

Keene Little : 2/20/2009 10:42:29 AM

The initial bounce off this morning's low looks impulsive and has so far been followed by a corrective looking pullback. This suggests we should see another leg up. But that's on a very small time frame. The slightly larger pattern of the decline from yesterday still calls for at least one more minor new low before potentially setting up a stronger bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 10:21:11 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/20/2009 10:15:53 AM

My daughter-in-law in Canada just got her Certified Financial Advisor designation and has been asking for an update on the SPX's jtHMA chart. I told her don't worry about it because this thing will not be turning around for quite a while yet. May not even this year.

In any case I thought I would show you the chart as well. Link

Jane Fox : 2/20/2009 10:10:37 AM

Of course you still have to keep an eye on the AD line/volume/ratio as well.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2009 10:10:10 AM

Here are the charts of the VIX and the S&P futures (ES) with both previous day ranges marked. I don't see the VIX's previous day ranges come into play too much when I monitor the VIX for market direction but today you could use it as a marker if the VIX should start to fall. If the VIX breaks is PDL and ES breaks its PDH then you know the bulls are getting stronger. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 10:05:43 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Keene Little : 2/20/2009 9:54:24 AM

SPX dropped down to the trend line along the lows since February 10th, near 764 at the open. It will be near 758 by the close. The pattern of the decline from yesterday morning would look best at this point with a bounce/consolidation followed by a new low. The 760 area continues to be important for the bulls to hold.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 9:54:19 AM

SMH $16.42 +1.79% ... juuuuust above WKLY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 9:53:15 AM

HUI.X +2.93% and SMH +1.98%

Jane Fox : 2/20/2009 9:48:32 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Ken Lewis, chairman and chief executive of Bank of America Corp. has been subpoenaed by New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, according to a report published Friday.

Cuomo is looking into whether Bank of America (BAC) withheld information from investors in relation to its purchase of Merrill Lynch & Co., said The Wall Street Journal.

Cuomo is investigating whether investors were misled about the depth of Merrill's losses in late 2008, said the Journal.

Bank of America agreed to buy Merrill in mid-September, as doubts swirled about Merrill's viability.

Investigators also took testimony from John Thain, the former Merrill CEO, on Thursday. The Journal said Thain was in particular quizzed on why the September agreement contained a nonpublic attachment that detailed the maximum Merrill could pay in bonuses.

The paper cites a person close to the matter, who claims that regulators are eyeing Lewis' congressional testimony earlier this month when he said he had no authority over the bonuses.

Cuomo's team is looking into how Merrill could have set the bonuses, and told staff about them, before the end of the quarter. They are also probing whether trading losses were adequately disclosed to shareholders and boards of Bank of America and Merrill, and what top executives who approved the bonuses knew about the losses.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2009 9:46:26 AM

So far the ON lows have held. That doesn't mean you should go long it just means the bears are taking a little respite

Jane Fox : 2/20/2009 9:39:09 AM

AD line opens very bearish at -1984

Keene Little : 2/20/2009 9:28:50 AM

Equity futures sold off steadily during the overnight session and bonds rallied. We've got another big gap down for the stock market to start the day and we could see SPX down to potential support near 760 sooner rather than later.

I'll be in and out of the office this morning for about the first 90 minutes or so. I'll check in and provide updates as I'm able.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2009 9:23:59 AM

A series of lower lows and highs tells you the bears have once again taken control of these markets. Unfortunately this kind of move ON usually means a very quiet intraday session. Day traders may need to change their sleep patterns and sleep during the day in order to stay up at night and trade the ON volatility. Link

Jane Fox : 2/20/2009 9:19:18 AM

Gold has made a very bullish move overnight. Once it broke the bearish ascending wedge (Feb 17th) you knew the bulls were pulling ahead and this has now proven it.

MACD helped to see the bullishness. Link

Jane Fox : 2/20/2009 9:16:14 AM

Even though crude had a relatively bullish day yesterday it has still not peeked above its bullish descending wedge. Even if it did, I would need this market to break a swing high (make a higher high) then confirm it with a higher low before I would step back into this market. Link

Jane Fox : 2/20/2009 9:08:03 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - With energy prices tumbling 20%, U.S. consumer prices were unchanged over the past 12 months, the lowest inflation rate since 1955, the Labor Department reported Friday.

In January, the consumer price index rose 0.3% seasonally adjusted as expected, the government said, as energy prices rose 1.7%, the first increase since July.

The core CPI - which strips out food and energy prices to get a better handle on underlying inflation trends - rose 0.2% seasonally adjusted in January compared with the 0.1% gain expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

Over the past 12 months, the core CPI is up 1.7%, the lowest inflation since mid-2004. Most economists believe the annual CPI rate will go negative in February even if energy prices continue to inch higher. The global recession is forcing producers to slash prices in the face of falling demand for many commodities.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:39:24 AM

DIA's established at $69.00.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:38:50 AM

SPY's PnF chart bearish vertical count is currently to $70. SPX established at 740.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:30:56 AM

Dow Componets with a similar 11/20/09 benchmark Link

Note: YM trade is live so not comparable to INDU unless you add back in -66 and Fair Value.

Fundamental analysts will want to verify QCharts' various data against earnings reports.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:20:50 AM

Asian Markets Link ... mostly lower. $NIKK off 145, or -1.92% at 7,413. $HSI down 321, or -2.47% at 12,702. $SSEC up 20, or +0.90% at 2,247.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:18:40 AM

ES off 8.25 at 771.25

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:18:17 AM

YM current off 66 at 7,396.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 1:03:46 AM

SPX and VIX.X 60-minute interval montage Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 12:51:12 AM

OCT, NOV, DEC 2009 Monthly Pivot Levels. Link

Note: VIX.X went MONTHLY R1, then reversed quickly to close back below the Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2009 12:22:25 AM

Dorsey classifies ...

PBR Link as "OIL"
UNH Link as HEAL
SNDK Link as COMPuters
CHK Link as OIL
FCX Link as METAls non ferrous (I see some PRECious too though)
CDE Link as PRECious Metals
AAPL Link as COMPuters

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2009 11:38:23 PM

Equity Sector Bell Curve 02/09/09 to 02/19/09 Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2009 11:30:38 PM

Dorsey/Wright's BPALL at this Link

Keene Little : 2/19/2009 11:28:41 PM

Friday's pivot table: Link

While the market appears to be breaking down it's not doing it strongly and that keeps me thinking we could be putting in some kind of ending pattern (maybe ending Friday and then start rallying next week once opex pressure is over). The SPX 60-min chart shows the possibility to drop down to the trend line along recent lows and then bounce next week (pink). But a break below the lower trend line would be bearish. Link

If SPX 760 does hold then there is the possibility a larger descending wedge could be playing out, as shown on the daily chart (again, in pink). A strong drop below 760 would support the more bearish wave count (dark red) that's looking for a drop below 700 in the next week or so. Daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2009 11:10:28 PM

Dorsey's Major Market Bullish % table Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2009 11:10:22 PM

BPOTC does fall to relative low 27.49 (28.00% chart) and lower than 02/02/09 inflection low of 28.46%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2009 10:47:51 PM

Dorsey's BPNDX edged down to 48.00% at conclusion of today's trade.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2009 10:36:02 PM

Beetle's Balanced Benchmark since 12/31/08 close. Link

Moved some cash into longer-dated treasuries today using TLT as a guide (check your mutual fund family offerings), and intermediate-term bond funds. Looking for a "climax" type move again for "junk bond/high yield" and equity.

Per intro of Keene's wrap, if you're money manager has no idea what to do or is afraid to stick his/her neck out, you must take control yourself.

OI Technical Staff : 2/19/2009 9:59:59 PM

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Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

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