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Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 9:03:56 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 4:30:14 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Keene Little : 2/23/2009 4:16:47 PM

The wave count for the move down from last week requires SPX stay above 735 in order to get at least a larger bounce. A drop below that level would suggest a very bearish wave count to the downside, one in which you'll want to get short and just hang on. So SPX 735 is a key level to the downside.

Keene Little : 2/23/2009 4:14:23 PM

Trying again on the SPX 60-min chart I tried posting at 3:55 PM: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 4:11:00 PM

dj- EIA: US retail gasoline -5.5c in week to $1.909/gallon
Decline most since 12/08/08.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 4:10:14 PM

WE have a very orderly decline that shows no sign of letting up.

Keene Little : 2/23/2009 3:55:43 PM

It's looking like the market is going to just settle lower into the close. I continue to like the setup for at least a larger bounce tomorrow. Whether it makes it back up to this morning's high is the bigger question. Link

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 3:43:13 PM

DOW is now down over 200 points.

Keene Little : 2/23/2009 3:33:18 PM

Bullish divergences on the 30 and 60-min charts continue to hold. NDX has made it down to the bottom of its parallel down-channel from February 9th. I would be in profit protection mode now if short and not wanting a bigger bounce to go against you.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 3:31:23 PM

VIX.X 52.89 +7.28% ... sticks its head above WKLY R1 (52.62). Pivot traders will note this week's triple overlap at ~56.00.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 3:29:45 PM

Freeport McMoran (FCX) $26.56 -7.70% ... WKLY S2 at $25.22.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 3:28:40 PM

Compania Vale Do Rio Doce (RIO) $11.91 -12.42% ... set to test its WKLY S2 ($11.85).

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 3:26:07 PM

XNG.X 321.61 -4.91% ...

HUI.X 318.95 -0.77% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 3:25:01 PM

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $14.95 -4.84% ... Alert!

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 3:22:49 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - As part of the latest efforts by regulators to stem the financial crisis, U.S. regulators are preparing another round of capital injections to financial institutions that fail to pass a new government stress test or obtain private financing.

As the Treasury and other bank regulators consider how many funds to provide to troubled financial institutions, regulatory observers argue that failure to pass the stress test could lead to a wide variety of infusions, with some extremely troubled institutions being nationalized by government bank agencies. Details of the plan, which could also include forced mergers, are expected to be released Wednesday.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 2:52:39 PM

dj- White House: Reiterates that privately-owned banking system is best.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 2:51:37 PM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $0.50 -7.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 2:50:46 PM

dj- AIG in talks with government about securing more money

Keene Little : 2/23/2009 2:52:41 PM

The bounce off the low has been left as a corrective 3-wave bounce which could easily develop into a larger choppy bounce but the odds of seeing a new low today have now increased. The bottom of the parallel down-channel from February 9th crosses the November low (741) at the end of the day and I think would be a good setup for a stronger bounce tomorrow.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 2:35:43 PM

The S&P has 42 Penny Stocks.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 2:33:43 PM

Wikipedia definition of a penny stock is "The official SEC definition of a penny stock is a low-priced (below $5.00/share), speculative security of a very small company, regardless of market capitalization or whether it trades on a securitized exchange (like NYSE or NASDAQ) or an "over the counter" listing service, such as the OTCBB or Pink Sheets. The terms penny stock, microcap stock, small caps, and nano caps are sometimes all used interchangeably, however per the SEC definition, penny stock status is determined by share price, not market capitalization or listing service."

With this definition the DOW now has 3 penny stocks. C trading at 2.39, GM trading at 1.85 and BAC trading at 4.36.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 2:28:35 PM

VIX.X 51.09 +3.63% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 2:28:24 PM

VXN.X 49.51 +4.93% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 2:28:11 PM

Swing trade put exit alert! ... for the Apple Computer AAPL Mar $85 Put (QAA-OQ) at the bid of $3.55.

AAPL $88.17 -3.32% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 2:25:28 PM

BIX.X 60.94 +4.68% ... reclaims WKLY Pivot.

Keene Little : 2/23/2009 2:22:37 PM

The bounce off today's low could still be just a small correction before continuing lower (for a test of the November low for SPX). Above SPX 760 would indicate a bottom is probably in for at least today.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 2:19:34 PM

This morning the VIX briefly moved opposite to ES and I made the incorrect conclusion ES was not going to fall anymore. The VIX correctly itself and has now mirrored ES tick for tick.

All the internals were strange this morning but they have all now gotten in sync, well all except the TRIN. Link

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 2:16:44 PM

It is looking like I will have to redraw my upper trendline on this crude chart because today's action has pierced it with a new inflection point. This is what I mean about sloping trendlines - they are hard to draw correctly. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 2:05:54 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 1:40:22 PM

UUP $26.18 +0.65% ...

GLD $97.87 +0.07%

SLV $14.32 +0.48%

10-year Yield ($TNX.X) up 0.2 bp at 2.79%

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 1:38:50 PM

Answer to CNBC guest's question regarding how will Obama administration reconcile deficit while providing stimulus ... Raise Taxes

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 1:33:44 PM

dj- Obama: US will reinstate pay-as-you-go budget rules

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 1:31:03 PM

dj- Obama: Pledges to cut deficit in half by end of 1st term

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 1:30:34 PM

dj- Obama: US will not sustain budget deficits without end

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 1:25:44 PM

BIX.X 58.21 (unch) ... slips back under MONTHLY S1.

Keene Little : 2/23/2009 1:20:02 PM

There are hints of bullish divergence at the new lows over the past few days and assuming the market is finding a bottom here or slightly lower (above SPX 741) we could get a bounce back up to the downtrend line from February 9th (top of its parallel down-channel), currently near 784, before heading lower again. Or we could get a larger bounce over the next week or two up to the downtrend line from January, up near 820 by the first week of March, before heading lower again. SPX 60-min chart: Link

Keene Little : 2/23/2009 12:59:32 PM

Using a 127% projection of the Friday afternoon bounce gives us potential support near SPX 747-748 which ties in with the bottom of its parallel down-channel.

Keene Little : 2/23/2009 12:56:10 PM

SPX 755 did not hold and now Friday's low just broke. Not a good sign for the bulls here. The bottom of a parallel down-channel from February 9th is currently near 747. Even with a slight undercut of Friday's low it remains possible today's pullback is only a part of a larger A-B-C bounce pattern and could be part of the whipsaw type of price action I've been expecting. But clearly a drop out the bottom of the parallel down-channel would be bearish and I don't think the November low at 741 would even act as a speed bump if that happens.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 12:55:29 PM

Internals are now in sync - well all except the TRIN but when that one is out of sync it usually means the FED is infusing money into the system and its not valid as an indicator. We saw this a lot during October and November of last year. Link

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 12:46:03 PM

If you are a buy and hold kind of investor then all the gains since 1996 you had in the S&P have evaporated. Link

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 12:37:19 PM

All the gains the DOW has made since 1997 have now evaporated. Link

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 12:04:50 PM

NQ has broken its previous day lows.
Both ES and YM are heading towards a retest of their respective PDLs
TF looks to be doing a retest as well. Link

Keene Little : 2/23/2009 11:35:55 AM

Keep an eye on SPX 755-756 for potential support for this morning's pullback. If we're to get another leg up as part of a larger A-B-C bounce off Friday's low, that level should be support.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 11:16:07 AM

PHILADELPHIA NEWSPAPERS LLC FILES FOR BANKRUPTCY

The owner of Philadelphia's two major daily newspapers, the Philadelphia Inquirer and Philadelphia Daily News, file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Keene Little : 2/23/2009 11:15:12 AM

Even though GOOG looks bearish I am still leaning towards at least another rally leg to match Friday afternoon's. For SPX that would mean a push up to at least 784 if it were to start back up from here.

Keene Little : 2/23/2009 11:13:36 AM

Another bearish sign this morning is GOOG. On Friday it broke its uptrend line from January (albeit an untested uptrend line through last Wednesday's low) and then rallied back up to it at the close. This morning it pushed marginally higher but still found the broken trend line to be resistance, giving the impression of a bearish kiss goodbye here. GOOG daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 11:10:46 AM

United Health (UNH) $24.35 -12.93% ... probably "should have" exercised the put on Friday, but under 10K account, just didn't want to go full margin on account.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 11:09:45 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

HMO's getting hit hard after Humana (HUM) $31.45 -22.39% said it is "closely analyzing" all aspects of the planned fiscal 2010 payment rates under Medicare Advantage, announced Friday by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 11:06:54 AM

dj- No takers in BOC's C$1B 14-day term PRA for private-sector money-market instruments

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 10:58:11 AM

Both Russell 2000 and NDX are both under their respective ON lows. Link

Keene Little : 2/23/2009 10:43:04 AM

I see the DOW made it up to the November low this morning and found it to be resistance. That's obviously bearish.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 10:41:34 AM

TRIN is falling but AD volume and line are as well. Since the VIX is climbing and AD volume is falling though the direction will remain down.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 10:35:45 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 10:25:08 AM

AD line is now a bearish -634. OK internals are drving me a little crazy this morning.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 10:24:19 AM

HMMM the TRIN is a very bullish 0.60.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 10:23:50 AM

The VIX is now making new daily highs so looks like this is going to be one of those days when the VIX follows ES instead of the other way around. It happens.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 10:10:09 AM

VIX.X 49.48 +0.36% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2009 10:09:52 AM

Swing trade call exit alert! ... for the Wells Fargo WFC July $12.50 Call (WFC-GS) at the bid of $3.70.

WFC $12.38 +13.47% ...

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 10:07:26 AM

ES is falling but so is the VIX which tells me this decline is not one you should be shorting. AD line is a very neutral +36 not supporting either the bulls or the bears. This is a market day traders should be quite wary of.

Keene Little : 2/23/2009 9:59:34 AM

Because I'm expecting a choppy rally at best be sure you take care not to get whipsawed by this market. For now the only key level is Friday's low--if that's violated it could be followed by some very strong selling.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 9:53:10 AM

NDX has fallen to its overnight lows.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 9:36:08 AM

VIX opens right where it closed on Friday.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 9:35:22 AM

AD opens a bullish +1122.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 9:22:50 AM

YM (DOW futures) is up +64
ES (SPX futures) is up +8.25
NQ (NDX futures) is up +7.25

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 9:21:39 AM

Although the overnight markets were able to break their respective previous day highs, they are all now trading within their previous day ranges. Link

Keene Little : 2/23/2009 9:19:22 AM

Looks like we'll get a little relief rally this morning as a continuation of the bounce off Friday's low (a post-opex relief bounce). Since it will likely be a choppy bounce I'll be watching for a bit to help identify what form the bounce takes in order to help figure out where it might lead us. I'm feeling under the weather this morning with a nasty cold so I'll be in and out today to keep an eye on things but not active.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 9:17:10 AM

Brent Crude is now trading at 41.89, only a $2.00 difference now. Eventually we should see West Texas (the first chart I posted) overtake the Brent Crude.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2009 9:15:30 AM

Crude is breaking the downward trend line, at least it is on my chart. This is the problem with drawing sloping trendlines, you can never be sure you have drawn your line correctly so it is hard to make trading decisions based on them. A horizontal trend line is quite different because you have a very clear swing high or low to use for your placement but the sloping trendlines rely a great deal on the charting platform you use, the kind of chart you use (linear or semi log), bar or candle, etc. Link

Keene Little : 2/22/2009 11:45:41 PM

Monday's pivot table: Link

SPX left a bullish hammer candlestick at support on Friday so it's a good setup for a bounce on Monday. Now all the bulls need to do is bounce. If the market is unable to bounce first thing Monday morning but instead drops below Friday's low, it would likely lead to a very strong leg down (dark red). But assuming the market gets a little rally going I think it could be a choppy one and it might not make it far before turning back down. SPX daily chart: Link

The dashed line calls for a bounce up to about 815 this coming week before heading sharply lower. Both the dark red and dashed-line wave counts call for a move below 700 into March. The pink wave count calls for a choppy sideways/up move to the downtrend line from January 6th, perhaps up to the 825 area by the first week of March. From there it calls for one more leg down for only a minor break of the November low to put in low for the year. These scenarios are shown in a little more detail on the 120-min chart: Link

OI Technical Staff : 2/22/2009 9:59:59 PM

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