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Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 9:10:37 PM

$NIKK currently up 122 points, or +1.68% at 7,391.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 9:09:17 PM

Informative .... very informative. Get's my "must read"

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 9:09:13 PM

BOJ's 01/21 and 01/22/09 Minutes (.pdf format) Link

CP= Corporate Paper

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 9:09:07 PM

USD / Yen 60-minute interval chart Link ... $ did bid against the yen just after 06:50 PM Monday. Consolidated from 94.50-95, then moved higher this morning from 03:00 AM Et.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 5:05:17 PM

Monday's Global Econ Calendar Link

Today's Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 4:29:14 PM

YM day trader's 5-minute recap Link

Not sure if there was any news at 01:20-25, but once it got above the D Pivot, that was it.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 4:08:14 PM

HUI.X 290.48 -8.13% ... only equity sector/index in U.S. Market Watch to finish red.

Might need to take note of this. Could simply be some profit taking by bulls (see today's MM), or may be tied in with Yen's break.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 4:05:53 PM

Yen Currency Shares (FXY) $102.80 -2.43% ... closes firmly below its 01/06/09 relative low ($105.15).

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 4:03:30 PM

Except for BIX.X 58.08 +14.59% ... all equity-based indexes I track in WKLY Pivot matrix still below their WKLY Pivots.

Keene Little : 2/24/2009 4:01:31 PM

They held it up into the close. I hope Obama's speech tonight doesn't disappoint. I can see the possibility for a quick stab higher first thing in the morning but it's not required as the wave pattern can now be considered complete for today's rally. It's a setup for an immediate decline into the end of the day Thursday with 711 being the downside target for now. If the market instead does a relatively small consolidation/pullback tomorrow morning and then heads higher again it will turn the wave pattern more bullish (pink on the 60-min chart). Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 3:56:39 PM

Home Depot (HD) $20.58 +9.99% ... getting a decent pop from yesterday's test of 11/20/08 low ($18.31).

Today's earnings press release Link

Keene Little : 2/24/2009 3:41:40 PM

While I'm using GDX (gold miners) for the LEAPs Put play in the LEAPS Trader (better options), XAU has been around longer and therefore is good for charting. I showed the monthly chart of XAU a couple of weeks ago to show how it had broken its October 2000-May 2005 uptrend line last year and then rallied back up to it in January and February. As shown on the weekly chart, it also rallied back up to the apex of a previous sideways triangle pattern (from 2006-2007). It's always a good idea to keep these horizontal lines coming out of triangle apexes on your chart--they will often act as support and resistance. XAU weekly chart: Link

The daily chart shows it also rallied up to its 200-dma and today dropped out of its rising wedge pattern and below its 50-dma. These rising wedge patterns are typically retraced faster than they're built and that means XAU back below 70 in less than 3 months, probably much faster. This setup on XAU is one of the reasons I've been so bearish on the gold stocks. XAU daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 3:34:01 PM

In these troubled economic times, I still would rather be quick on the trigger and generate positive cash flows.

When you trade for a living, that's the primary objective (in my opinion).

"Buy and hold" (puts or calls) doesn't pay the bills.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 3:32:35 PM

And Wells Fargo (WFC) $12.83 +16.31% ....

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 3:31:44 PM

Then there's the BIX.X Link

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 3:20:24 PM

DOW is now up 241 points.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 3:17:35 PM

DIA $73.56 +3.37% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 3:17:01 PM

For you DIJ-CT traders, we would want to monitor the SPX closely.

Remember! DIA is "weakest" of the majors within the Pivots. We want to see the buyers get as aggressive as possible with the SPX to then simply lift our DIA to its target.

And the strongest .... we wouldn't mind seeing it either continue to lead, or perhaps some rotation into the stodgy "blue chips"

Keene Little : 2/24/2009 3:13:54 PM

SPX is about to tag its downtrend line from the February high--at 773.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 3:13:25 PM

SPX chart from last Wednesday's wrap Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 3:12:44 PM

And Keene's tie in nicely with the MONTHLY S1 that's been here nearly a month. Probably a RISK level that some very profitable bears had to assess against last night.

SEE today's FCX short trade management.

Keene Little : 2/24/2009 3:09:33 PM

Jeff's levels tie in nicely with the same resistance area I've identified. They're holding the market up but each new high now is showing bearish divergence. It doesn't mean it can't continue to press higher right into the close but it would make me nervous to hold a long position overnight. Overnight has not been kind to those who hold a position based on the direction into the close.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 3:06:29 PM

SPX 770.30 +3.62% ... best levels here. MONTHLY S1 at 772.17 with 19.1% at 771.77.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 3:03:55 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,999/792

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 3:03:43 PM

NYSE a/d 2,537/558

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 2:59:56 PM


The House Ways and Means Committee will host Treasury Secretary Geithner in a March 3 hearing on the White House's fiscal year 2010 budget proposals. President Obama will unveil his 2010 budget plan Thursday.

Keene Little : 2/24/2009 2:50:49 PM

SPX is still struggling with that 768 level. A drop below 763 would be a sell signal with a stop at a new daily high.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 2:28:16 PM

USO $24.38 +4.54% ... takes a look at the 02/20/09 termination benchmark ($24.35)

Keene Little : 2/24/2009 2:20:56 PM

Pushing back up again. That keeps SPX 771-773 upside target as a good one for now.

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 2:20:42 PM

All markets are now trading above their respective ON highs. Link

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 2:18:28 PM

AD line is a bullish +1744 so the internals are all on the side of the bulls. Link

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 2:17:16 PM

THe VIX is working today and doing its job. ES is now following the VIX's lead and making new daily highs.

Keene Little : 2/24/2009 2:16:37 PM

Hints here that we might not get any more to the upside. SPX is fighting resistance at 768, the October 2002 low.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 2:07:18 PM

Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (RIO) $12.68 +5.66% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 2:06:20 PM

FCX $27.74 +5.31% ... more "non ferrous" than "precious"

Keene Little : 2/24/2009 2:05:33 PM

Remember to keep stops on any short plays relatively tight. If SPX makes it above 775 it will be potentiall bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 2:05:15 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 2:02:43 PM

BIX.X 66.55 +12.01% .... still some room to WKLY R1, then 72.00.

Keene Little : 2/24/2009 2:01:09 PM

I've got some Fibs and trend lines lining up around SPX 771-773 for a high for this bounce. Watch to see if it stalls in that area for a short play setup. The downside target is 700-710.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 1:54:45 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 1:50:32 PM

RSD = Regular Session Derived

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 1:40:39 PM

Please note that DIA's MONTHLY Pivot ($83.34) served resistance earlier this month. EXPECT resistance and institutional selling should MONTHLY S1 be tested after traded at MONTHLY S2.

Keene Little : 2/24/2009 1:40:21 PM

SPX should not drop below 757 (the high near 1:05 PM) until it does a small pullback and then new high. If it drops back below 757 from here it will be an indication that the high for the bounce is already in.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 1:39:02 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $72.60 +2.03% ... daily interval bars with RSD MONTHLY and QUARTERLY Pivot retracement Link

At Friday's close pivot traders will derive NEW monthly Pivot retracement.

Keene Little : 2/24/2009 1:36:46 PM

The leg up from the mid-day low needs to be a 5-wave move. That means it will need a small pullback/consolidation and then another push higher. So it's too early to be thinking failure. Watching and waiting for the short entry...

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 1:24:10 PM

On November 21st the SPX made an intraday low of 741.43. Yesterday, February 23rd it made a low of 742.37. That is what you would call a retest of lows and a very good place to stage a rally from. How long that rally will last is anyone's guess but I do believe the rest of this week will be bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 1:19:12 PM

Long DIJ-CT trade ... STOP can be used on this at-the-money at $70.50. Target $75.00.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 1:15:16 PM

At last night's close, Dorsey/Wright's BPDJIA was 3.33%. VERY WEAK INTERNALS, but VERY "oversold".

Having seen YM test M S2, decent place for an OPTION.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 1:12:08 PM

YM 30-minute interval chart Link

With RSD MONTHLY and WKLY Pivot retracement.

Play the DIA call.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 1:08:29 PM

$VXO.X 49.54 -7.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 1:08:04 PM

Swing trade call alert! ... for one (1) of the Dow Diamonds DIA March $72 Calls (DIJ-CT) at the offer of $3.10.

DIA $72.11 +1.34% ...

Keene Little : 2/24/2009 1:07:14 PM

Two equal legs up for SPX off yesterday's low would be at 763.73. That's the level, if reached and price stalls, I'll be looking to short this bounce. But the next upside Fib projection (2nd leg up = 162% of the 1st leg up) is at 773.63 The downtrend line from February 9th is near 773 and will be near 771 by the close. The wave pattern ideally needs one more leg down into the end of the week, with a downside projection to about 700-710, before setting up a tradeable bottom (for a week or two).

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 12:58:13 PM

The VIX continues to make new daily telling me ES "should" be making new daily highs but the anemic AD line is holding it back. You should not be short and careful if long. Link

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 12:50:11 PM

Bernanke: Nationalization will just destroy franchise

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 12:49:38 PM

Bernanke: Stress test will answer how much capital they need

Bernanke: We can get banks to do whatever needed now

Bernanke: Not necessary to nationalize banks

Bernanke: Buying Treasurys goal to help private credit mkts

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 12:49:03 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, seems to be at odds with his colleagues about how strong the economic recovery may be next year.

The official FOMC forecast calls for healthy growth next year and robust growth in 2011, but the chairman of the Federal Reserve has his doubts that a depression can be averted.

In his semiannual testimony on Wednesday to the Senate Banking Committee, Bernanke stressed the depth of the economic crisis and the fragile nature of consumer and business confidence, despite the desperate measures that the president, the Congress, the Fed and the Treasury have taken

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 12:44:28 PM

Without even looking at the charts of the indexes I would say they were choppy based on the choppy looking internals. Take note of the very bullish TRIN again today. Makes one wonder just how good an internal this indicator can be. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 12:39:52 PM

FCX OptionMontage at this Link

This probably not overly accurate from QCharts5.01, but only version where they still have the Up/DnTickVolume study. While only measureing volume of 141, would be directional with bulk of those BUY induces (UpTickVol).

Keene Little : 2/24/2009 12:33:31 PM

The price pattern for the pullback and rally last year and into this year for gold calls for another leg down and the only thing that has surprised me is how high the rally from October/November got to. It might not be over but it's certainly stretched to the upside (especially when you consider gold sentiment is currently running 96% bulls, only 1% less than last year's peaks). The wave pattern and Fib projections call for a decline to about $63 for GLD, as shown on the weekly chart: Link

I'm using a log price scale because of the large run-up in price and it shows the broken uptrend line from July 2005 (where GLD bottomed at 41.02) was tested in September and again now in February. The retest of last year's highs is showing bearish divergence on RSI. The daily chart shows GLD achieved the Fib projections at 96.97 and 98.62 for the bounce off the November low: Link

I like a longer-term short play on gold and gold stocks.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 12:22:26 PM

Maybe try and get a read on the FCX March $30s (Up vs. DnTick volume)

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 12:17:49 PM

CBOE Most Active Calls/Puts Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 12:11:58 PM

That's a headline from Dow Jones that I will certainly want to look into as I have long believed the CRA is/was a LARGE part of why "we're" in this mess.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 12:10:40 PM

dj- Fed Gov Duke: Community Reinvestment Act Flexibility Is Key

Keene Little : 2/24/2009 12:09:52 PM

Silver is getting a smackdown today--SLV is down -5.5% and looks like it will head even lower today. Gold is also getting hit hard to the downside. The GDX LEAP put play is looking pretty good with GDX down -7.5% here and threatening to break its uptrend line from November. GDX daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 11:28:19 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Have CLOSED out the FCX at $26.45.

Have CLOSED out 1/2 of the CDE at $0.847.

Keene Little : 2/24/2009 11:09:48 AM

The updated SPX 60-min chart depicts the need for a 3-wave bounce (or something similar) from yesterday's low up to the 770 area by today/tomorrow before turning back down to a new low by the end of the week for a tradeable bottom (for perhaps a week or two). A rally above 775 would be a heads up that something more bullish is going on and above 790 would confirm it. SPX 60-min chart: Link

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 10:59:19 AM

AD line is now +908 not overly bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 10:45:14 AM

Swing trade long sell 1/2 of position alert! ... for the Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) at the bid of $0.847.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 10:39:48 AM

10:34 AM Market Watch Link

Keene Little : 2/24/2009 10:32:25 AM

Looks like the bulls might try it again. The first charge up the hill was repelled by the bears and the bulls had to retreat and regroup at the bottom. But bonds have done a little reversal from this morning's rally and metals are selling off so maybe some freed up cash will rotate into stocks.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 10:31:37 AM

Swing trade short stop alert! for the Freeport McMoran (FCX) $26.45.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 10:30:30 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 10:13:58 AM

Swing trade short lower stop alert! ... for the Freeport McMoran (FCX) $26.40 +0.22% ... to $26.65.

Keene Little : 2/24/2009 10:07:26 AM

Bulls gave up in a hurry on that bounce. It could all be part of a choppy consolidation/bounce that we'll see today, even if we first get a minor new low below yesterday's. Trade cautiously since we're not done putting in a low for a tradeable bottom but we should get some short-term relief from the selling.

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 10:06:24 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer confidence plunged in February to a record low as concerns about jobs, income and the economy considerably worsened, according to the monthly Conference Board index reported Tuesday. The February consumer confidence index fell to 25 from a downwardly revised 37.4 in January. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected a February reading of 35. "Looking ahead, increasing concerns about business conditions, employment and earnings have further sapped confidence," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center. "All in all, not only do consumers feel overall economic conditions have grown more dire, but just as disconcerting, they anticipate no improvement in conditions over the next six months."

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 10:06:00 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke said that restoring financial stability is the top job facing policy makers. If actions taken by the Obama administration and the Fed are successful in restoring some measure of bank stability, "there is a reasonable prospect that the current recession will end in 2009 and that 2010 will be a year of recovery," Bernanke said in testimony to the Senate Banking panel on monetary policy. If financial conditions improve, the stimulus package and ultra-low interest rates will support growth and low gasoline prices will support consumer spending. Bernanke said the new outline of a program to assist banks announced by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner should work "over time" to restore the flow of credit needed to promote growth.

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 10:05:42 AM

February consumer expectations at record low

February consumer confidence at record low

February consumer confidence below 35 expected

February consumer confidence 25 vs 37.4 in January

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 9:54:01 AM

NQ is testing its ON highs but cannot seem to break through.

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 9:53:23 AM

VIX opened the day at 52.60 and has fallen to 50.49. That is a big move in less than 30 minutes.

Keene Little : 2/24/2009 9:44:55 AM

We've got a strong spike up in NQ after a quick spike lower at the open (mini bear trap). NDX has now exceeded the high of the bounce yesterday afternoon (1149.26) before dropping into the close. This confirms the leg down from Friday should be finished and suggests we're into at least a larger bounce that should last the day and into tomorrow. How choppy it will be is the bigger question.

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 9:39:52 AM

AD line opens at +886 but it opened over +1000 yesterday and was immediately pushed to below -1000 within the first hour.

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 9:29:24 AM

Looks like Gold is taking another run at $1000 although I think it needs more of a pullback before it has enough powder to make it through this huge resistance. Link

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 9:27:44 AM

Crude (West Texas) is up a whole $0.46. Link

Keene Little : 2/24/2009 9:26:02 AM

Overnight equity futures had a nice rally up to a high near 3:30 AM and then pulled back near the flatline about 30 minutes ago. A move back up as we approach the open will give us a start to the expected bounce. Looking at all-hours trading for ES, two equal legs up from yesterday afternoon's low would be at 761 (trading near 750 as we approach the open).

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 9:25:43 AM

Today we have the CB Consumer Confidence report out at 10:00ET.

Fed Chairman Bernanke begins his testimony at the same time.

There is also the Richmond Manufacturing Index report released at 10:00

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 9:23:13 AM

The overnight session was a sideways consolidation from the previous day's close. This should mean we could have a very good day for trading.

Yesterday was a very good day for trading even though we had a false start. The internals started out bullish but price which got me to thinking we were going to see a turnaround. Well we did get the turnabout but in the internals not in price and it was downhill for the rest of the day. After the kind of selloff we saw yesterday I am surprised the markets were not more bullish during the overnight session. Link

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 9:16:28 AM

Here is the chart posted on the S&P website for the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Link

Jane Fox : 2/24/2009 9:11:56 AM

New York, February 24, 2009 ? Data through December 2008, released today by Standard & Poor?s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the prices of existing single family homes across the United States continue to set record declines, a trend that prevailed throughout all of 2007 and 2008. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 1:07:49 AM

Dorsey/Wright's BPSPX fell 2.20% to 25.60% on Monday. Measure of 32.00% now needed for 3-box reversal back up to "bear correction" status.

Jeff Bailey : 2/24/2009 12:40:40 AM

SPX 60-minute interval chart with RSD WEEKLY/MONTHLY/QUARTERLY Pivot retracement Link

Decided best to capture nice gain in the WFC-GS this morning as SPX faltered quickly at WKLY Pivot/MONTHLY S1.

Closed out the QAA-OQ for gain as SPX traded "in the zone" and neared its PnF bearish vertical count.

SPY's bearish vertical count still suggests there may be some downside risk yet to be removed to $62.00.

Good trades!

Keene Little : 2/23/2009 11:49:38 PM

Tuesday's pivot table: Link

Monday's low for SPX came within a point of tagging the November low and it made it down to the bottom of its parallel down-channel from February 9th. Slightly lower, near 738 is a Fib projection for the 2nd leg down in the decline from February 9th and the bottom of a larger parallel down-channel from the January high. I expect a bounce from either Monday's low or slightly lower first thing Tuesday morning. Anything lower than 735 would turn the wave pattern more bearish and I would expect hard selling to follow. SPX 60-min chart: Link

Assuming we see a bounce get started the first place to watch for resistance is the downtrend line from February 9th, currently near 775. Anything above 790 would be bullish for at least a run up to the downtrend line from January (perhaps 825 by the time it gets there) and potentially on up to the 940 area shown with the dashed line on the daily chart: Link

Because of the possibility for the stronger rally into March (before heading back down to new lows again), be very careful now if you're short the market. A strong short-covering rally could take off to the upside at any time now.

OI Technical Staff : 2/23/2009 9:59:59 PM

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