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Keene Little : 2/27/2009 4:04:11 PM

The short-term risk is a quick drop down to the SPX 720 area Monday morning before we start a bounce next week.

Keene Little : 2/27/2009 4:01:58 PM

We're getting the new low into the close so I would take profits on shorts off the table and consider taking a couple of call options home with you.

Keene Little : 2/27/2009 3:50:12 PM

Well it's not a pretty decline but if we get one more new low for this afternoon's leg down, for essentially a test of this morning's low, the decline from Wednesday and therefore February 9th can be considered complete. A long play into Monday could be a good play after all. Just do it in a small way and only if we get a drop into the close.

Keene Little : 2/27/2009 3:30:29 PM

It looks like someone is fighting hard to hold this market up today. Today's price pattern does NOT have me interested in being long the market into Monday. While it could get another leg up in its bounce it sure looks like a consolidation waiting for the next leg down.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 3:08:43 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

I Place the SELL NAKED PBR-OE up by the PBR-PK.

I've got to get to a meeting. Will update things later this weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 2:55:46 PM

Dow penny stocks likely with change at quarter's end.

C probably out and may be replaced with GS is my thinking.

Probaly have to leave GM in there. Taxpayer'd don't own BAC yet so leave it in. Have to leave AA in, or ... hmmm ... replace with FCX?

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 2:44:14 PM

April-May, April-June, May-June heading is for 2/23/09 to current intra-day.

If I can backcount my months right ... 12/31-01/20/09 was Feb-March, Feb-April, March-April

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 2:41:25 PM

Contango table Link ... Per Trader William and Keene a few days ago.

Keene Little : 2/27/2009 2:38:26 PM

Talk about a fall from grace. GE's monthly chart shows a round trip about to finish if it drops to its 1990 low at 4.16. Two equal legs down from 2000 is at 3.05. GE should survive, especially if it gets rid of its capital lending business so I'd say I could be enticed to buy the stock down there. Might have to add this one to the LEAPs Trader. Of course LEAPs aren't nearly as helpful when you're looking at a bunch of penny stocks, of which the DOW now includes a few. GE monthly chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 2:26:36 PM

Contango test is +/-0.16% at the close for USO Price change.

See 12/31/08to 01/05/09, then 01/06/09. THEN 01/07/09

Keene Little : 2/27/2009 2:23:51 PM

I'm just not interested in trying to trade this chop. If there's no new low this afternoon I don't see a good trade setup and I'm spending my time on some other things this afternoon rather than staying glued to the little wiggles.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 2:23:42 PM

USO $27.23 (unch) ...

Keene Little : 2/27/2009 2:22:17 PM

I agree with Jane that a hammer, or an even more bullish dragonfly doji would be a potentially bullish candlestick pattern. But the following day is needed to confirm it (look how well the one last Friday worked). Today's bounce pattern remains very corrective looking (like a bear flag) and while it could certainly chop its way higher it would be choppy and difficult to trade. It would also likely lead to another shot lower. I was hoping to see a bottom put in this afternoon with a new low to set up a long play into Monday. So far that doesn't appear to be setting up.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 2:18:39 PM

Thought YM worth a long BELOW the WKLY S1, in hopes that computers would turn on and ramp. They didn't and YM "eases" 7,144. Watch at DAILY S1/MONTHLY S2 overlap 7,100/7,099

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 2:16:08 PM

BIX.X 71.00 ... still a problem ... (day trader comment)

Jane Fox : 2/27/2009 2:14:56 PM

If the bulls can just keep the current levels until the close then it will close the day with a bullish candle called at Hammer or a Dragonfly Doji. This pattern is defined by a a sharp sell off after the market opens during a downtrend. However, by the end of the trading day, the market closes at or near its high for the day. This signifies a weakening of the previous bearish sentiment, especially if the real body is white (the close is higher than the open price). Since the certainty for a Hammer indicator is low, the trend reversal can be confirmed by a higher open and an even higher close on the next trading day. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 2:14:18 PM

7,205 was best.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 2:13:54 PM

YM long stop alert! 7,145

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 2:10:29 PM

GE not a heavy in YM, but BIG gun still for ES/SPX/SPY

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 2:10:07 PM

GE $9.20 +0.65% ...

Jane Fox : 2/27/2009 2:10:04 PM

ES is now peeking above its daily high. It took a while but is finally making a break although not with much force.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 2:08:45 PM

YM 7,181 ... sticks its head back above WKLY S1 (RSD) 7,168

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 2:07:45 PM

YM long ... stop goes real tight at 7,145. Let's target the D Pivot and 7,245

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 2:07:04 PM

YM Long alert! 7,162

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 1:43:25 PM

dj- GE to Cut Dividend to $0.10/share from $0.31/share

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 1:42:22 PM

Investors ... One thing we might want to start planning for regarding new administration is HIGHER taxes. Even at the corporate level.

What I think this policy could do is have some of the dividend payers start cutting dividends in order to make up for it.

What that may then do is have investors finding CORPORATE BONDS at these more depressed levels becoming MORE ATTRACTIVE.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 1:38:02 PM

CNBC ... GE cuts dividend

Jane Fox : 2/27/2009 1:36:26 PM

ES is now tagging it daily highs and I think it will break through.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 1:36:25 PM

General Electric (GE) $8.75 -3.84% ... gets some action.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 1:35:08 PM

dj (earlier)- METLIFE'S NEGATIVE OUTLOOK DUE TO ASSET STRESS TEST

Standard and Poor's says that results of its asset stress tests are the main factor behind why it put a negative outlook on MetLife's financial strength rating, while several of its competitors received a stable outlook.

MET $18.86 -21.42% ..

Keene Little : 2/27/2009 1:34:06 PM

Not much happening today--the bounce back up to the flat line has resulted in both sides sitting here staring at each other.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 1:26:33 PM

dj- Argentina: Jan. Construction -1.1% on Yr, +6.7% on Month

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 1:10:50 PM

Petroleo Brasiliero (PBR) $28.18 +1.36% ... come to very, very, very short-term trend (02/09/09 high to 02/13/09 lower high)

Jane Fox : 2/27/2009 1:10:04 PM

Here are your overnight ranges. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 1:09:30 PM

Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (RIO) $12.95 +0.01% ... inches green.

Jane Fox : 2/27/2009 1:08:42 PM

Internals are improving but the markets are still stuck in a very narrow trading range. They may not break out today at all but if they do I think it will be an upward break.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 1:05:33 PM

Will want to monitor that short interest Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 1:03:27 PM

Coeur D' Alene Mines increasing gold, silver production ... Reuters Story Link

Keene Little : 2/27/2009 1:02:24 PM

So that I'm clear on what I'm expecting next week, I'm looking for a bounce and not the start of the multi-month rally. But I'm very much aware of the possibility that we could be hammering in a bottom for the decline from October 2007 here and now. Or we could get a big rally into the end of March (SPX 950 kind of rally) before turning back down. It's why I'm sounding a strong warning for shorts now--don't get caught short in this market as we're too close to THE bottom.

Ideally we'll see a 1 to 2-week choppy rally into March followed by one more leg down to finish a 5-wave decline from January (the decline from February should be the 3rd wave). That final leg down is where I'm thinking we could see SPX 625-635 for THE bottom. But it's one leg at a time now to determine where this market may be heading next. The risk has clearly shifted to the bears' camp and I would be reluctant to hold a large short position overnight, or any short position over this weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 12:56:18 PM

Yesterday, I alllllmost pulled the trigger on a March $2.50 put for $0.97 per contract, but didn't. Wish I had on a 10-lot.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 12:54:50 PM

C $1.58 -35.77% ... hovers at morning low.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 12:54:25 PM

That was a "bad tick" in Citigroup (C) to $1.80

Keene Little : 2/27/2009 12:48:45 PM

So far today's bounce is a mini-me version of the bounce from Monday to Wednesday. The Monday-Wednesday bounce was a 4th wave correction within the decline from February 9th and today's bounce should be a 4th wave correction within the 5th wave down from Wednesday. Today's correction, a smaller degree 4th wave, looks like a fractal of the larger 4th which is common. Until proven otherwise I continue to think we'll see a lower low this afternoon to finish the 5th of the 5th wave down (setting up the rally next week).

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 12:37:32 PM

Various Energy Futures from 12:01:00 benchmark Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 12:31:34 PM

iShares Aerospace/Defense (ITA) $33.01 -1.43% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 12:26:07 PM

As it may relate to investing ... If you listened to President Obama's speech to Congress Tuesday evening Link you may have heard him say, "In this budget, we will end education programs that don't work and end direct payments to large agribusinesses that don't need them. We'll eliminate the no-bid contracts that have wasted billions in Iraq, and reform our defense budget so that we're not paying for Cold War-era weapons systems we don't use. We will root out the waste, fraud, and abuse in our Medicare program that doesn't make our seniors any healthier, and we will restore a sense of fairness and balance to our tax code by finally ending the tax breaks for corporations that ship our jobs overseas.

Keene Little : 2/27/2009 12:16:34 PM

Two equal legs up for NDX's bounce off this morning's low would be at 1140.88 so I'll raise the key level to the upside for NDX to 1141 instead of 1140.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 12:13:15 PM

dj- Obama: Transitional force of 35,000-50,000 will remain in 2011

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 12:12:16 PM

SPX 748.08 -0.63% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 12:12:02 PM

USO $26.71 -1.79% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 12:11:00 PM

dj- Obama: US combat mission in Iraq will end by Aug. 31, 2010

Jane Fox : 2/27/2009 12:08:47 PM

Even though the VIX is quite bullish price action is rather muted and more sideways than bullish. This is not surprising with a bearish AD LINE. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 12:07:10 PM

12:01 Market Watch at this Link

Keene Little : 2/27/2009 12:05:55 PM

Note too that SPX 752.92 is where this morning's gap would be closed.

Keene Little : 2/27/2009 12:03:40 PM

The first test for the bulls in SPX will be to get the index above 752.44 which is where the bounce off this morning's low would have two equal legs up. If this is to be just a bounce that will lead to another leg down that will be a level to try a day-trade short.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 11:59:52 AM

VIX.X 44.93

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 11:55:23 AM

Disclosure: I currently hold bullish and bearish positions in PBR.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 11:54:47 AM

Swing trade sell NAKED put alert! with Petroleo Brasileiro $27.37 -1.54% ... sell one (1) of the PBR Mar $25 Puts (PBR-OE) at the bid of $0.95.

Some protection from the April $22.50 LONG put.

Keene Little : 2/27/2009 11:24:49 AM

Looking at a short-term parallel down-channel for NDX since Wednesday's high and using price projections for the 5th waves in the move down from February 9th and Wednesday, I'm getting good correlation for a low in the 1103-1105 area (assuming of course we get one more leg down). If it plays out this way to a low by the end of the lunch hour you'll want to cover short positions and try the long side for a rally into next week. NDX 15-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 10:52:59 AM

BPALL a very good bullish % to tie with the Wilshire 5000, which did almost trade the 11/20/08 low this morning.

Jane Fox : 2/27/2009 10:52:34 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Inflation is now below desirable levels and any drop in inflation expectations would be unwelcome, said Janet Yellen, the president of the San Francisco Fed Bank on Friday. "My hope is that inflationary expectations will remain similarly well-anchored now, serving to stabilize core inflation," Yellen said at a conference sponsored by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and Brandeis International Business School. Earlier this month, the Fed released for the first time is projection for longer-run inflation of around 2%. Many analysts think this could be viewed as an inflation target. Yellen said the projections should be useful in pinning down inflation expectations. Of course, the economy is no longer threatened with sky-high oil prices. Any boost in consumer spending due to low gasoline prices would be welcome "in the current circumstances," Yellen said.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 10:46:50 AM

BIX.X 30-minute intervals montage (Pivots left/simple right) from recent Wednesday market wraps. Link

Some SIMILARITY at this point to February 9th (violates trend) ... now monitor for further SIMILARITY, or more importantly ... DIVERGENCE.

Jane Fox : 2/27/2009 10:41:51 AM

Reading an article about the Wilshire 5000 which represents the combined market capitalizations of virtually all publicly traded stocks in the United States, an index I have not looked at too much of late since it usually trades very closely to the SPX. However it is diverging from the SPX lately and this divergence is note worthy.

Earlier this week the SPX broke it Nov lows and today it broke to even lower lows. This is quite bearish folks. But if you look at the Wilshire you will see the Nov lows are still intact. Reason being is that the Wilshire has small cap stocks in it and they are outperforming their larger cap brethren. Link

Here is the weekly chart of the Russell 2000 - a small cap index. It is very obvious small caps are doing a lot better than the large cap. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 10:37:03 AM

IUX.X 91.20 -6.94% ... new 52-weeker. I think it was on Wednesday that Goldman Sachs was concerned about insurance group. The blurb was "don't know where insurers could put off/offset RISK."

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 10:35:20 AM

10:30 Market Watch at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/27/2009 10:30:33 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Amid persistent economic turmoil, a consumer sentiment index fell in late February to 56.3 from 61.2 in January, according to a media report of a survey released Friday by the University of Michigan and Reuters. Analysts polled by MarketWatch were looking for a final February reading of 56.2. A reading earlier in the month estimated sentiment at 56.2. As job losses pile up, widespread economic weakness is weighing down consumers.

Jane Fox : 2/27/2009 10:27:13 AM

VIX is falling to new daily lows confirming ES's new daily highs but keep in mind the AD line, which is still bearish, although it is improving as well. Link

Keene Little : 2/27/2009 10:22:59 AM

Bonds have done a hard reversal off this morning's rally and are spiking lower. The 30-year is down nearly 2 handles from this morning's high and dropping below yesterday's low. I showed a chart of TLT in yesterday's Market Wrap with the expectation that we'll see another leg down to the $96 area. TLT daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 10:22:07 AM

Now, I wouldn't expect a "super bull" type of trade out of FCX today, but a "super bull" type of action would be for FCX to stick on WKLY R1 and Green #3 pullback, then a ramp back higher and take out yesterday's high.

Very tough with SPX -1.70%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 10:19:14 AM

SPX 740.70 -1.52% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 10:18:58 AM

FCX $30.35 +0/86% ... Green #4. So far, the DAILY Pivot has held sellers on 5-minute bar close.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 10:17:26 AM

I haven't run any "fundamental" analysis/comparison on RIO vs. FCX and there may be a valuation parity. Still, I'm more technical than fundamental. Still, I like to play the piano with both hands whenever possible.

Jane Fox : 2/27/2009 10:15:56 AM

Gold is heading back towards $1000 resistance after it almost tagged a 38.20% retracement. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 10:15:07 AM

Thoughts per "light bulb analysis" ... Perhaps "infrastructure-like" bull plays on stimulus/budget do have market participants "buy American?"

Jane Fox : 2/27/2009 10:14:27 AM

Crude is up against some minor resistance and seems to be succumbing to it. This is one very weak market. MACD has still not gotten above 0. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 10:13:58 AM

RIO $12.52 -3.24% ... still red.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 10:13:19 AM

FCX $30.47 ... back below D Pivot

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 10:12:37 AM

FCX $30.75 +2.19% ... sticks its head above DAILY Pivot (QCharts' $30.58).

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 10:11:37 AM

FCX (educational) ... 5-minute bar chart with an UPPER 5-Mrt on it Link

GREEN #1 $29.00, #2 $29.62, #3 $29.99, #4 $30.37, #5 $30.98, #6 $31.59.

Keene Little : 2/27/2009 10:04:46 AM

Keep an eye on NDX as it is once again showing relative strength and the first back into the green. A move above 1140 would signal an end to its leg down from Wednesday's high and that in turn would signal an end to the leg down from February 9th (and set us up for the rally into next week).

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 10:04:15 AM

BIX.X 73.00 -3.33% ...

Jane Fox : 2/27/2009 10:02:02 AM

VIX is now making new daily lows as ES makes new daily highs. Remember though the AD line is still -1296 so don't expect much of an upside move.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 10:01:52 AM

FCX Green #4

Jane Fox : 2/27/2009 10:00:37 AM

The SPX is once again testing its support and each test of support will stress that support level and weakens it as buyers who in the past viewed it profitable to buy this level now for the first time view it as unprofitable and walk away. Link

Keene Little : 2/27/2009 9:57:22 AM

The price pattern calls for some stair-stepping lower today--relatively small consolidation, like this morning's, followed by new lows. Ideally, from a trading perspective, we'll see SPX work its way down to the 720 area as a good place to take profits off the table from short plays and nibble on some long plays. For now SPX has no business back above 750 if there's more downside to come.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 9:54:36 AM

FCX $29.73 -1.19% ... backfills this morning's gap lower.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 9:48:13 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

1/2 position short in FCX should be closed.

Jane Fox : 2/27/2009 9:35:48 AM

VIX closed last night at 44.86 and opens at 46.89.

Jane Fox : 2/27/2009 9:35:18 AM

AD line opens bearishly at -1266

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 9:34:39 AM

FCX short exit/close out alert! $28.50!

Jane Fox : 2/27/2009 9:28:09 AM

Needless to say the overnight markets were quite bearish and all previous day lows have now been broken. I suspect the AD line will open quite bearish but the intraday session will be not give us a lot of day trading opportunities. This kind of move overnight usually results in very poor trading conditions intraday. Link

Keene Little : 2/27/2009 9:22:11 AM

We've got an ugly start to the day with another big gap down. As I've been showing on the SPX charts I've been eyeing SPX 722 for a downside target before another bounce next week. The pre-market low for ES is 729.50. We're getting close. Will it hold is the next question. But don't push your luck to the downside if short the market. We've reached a time where it's prudent to take quick profits rather than hold for more.

Jane Fox : 2/27/2009 9:07:56 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy was hitting on virtually no cylinders in the fourth quarter, as gross domestic product fell at the fastest pace since 1982 on sharp declines in consumer spending, investment and exports, the government said Friday.

GDP fell at a 6.2% seasonally adjusted annualized pace in the final three months of 2008, revised from the initial estimate of a 3.8% drop, the Commerce Department reported. It was the worst decline in GDP since a 6.4% decrease in the first quarter of 1982.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected a revision to a 5.5% decline, based on updated monthly data on inventories, exports and other key measures.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 8:55:01 AM

FCX with pre-market level II Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 8:54:15 AM

FCX $28.50 offer

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 8:46:29 AM

$28.72 x $28.75

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 8:45:24 AM

Swing trade short cover alert! ... the 1/2 position short in shares of Freeport McMoran (FCX) at the offer of $28.80.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 2:33:23 AM

I tried looking at a QCharts chart of the FCX-CF here this morning, but QCharts is HORRIBLE sometimes for option chart (data feed) and don't even get a bar or any volume. Would have been informative perhaps to see if "he/she who knows" did anything today. Sometimes you can pick up the volume. Quite often it is at a RSD pivot level.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 2:27:50 AM

Ah, and if you're also thinking what I'm thinking and this Link (see 02/24/09 MM) and then attempt to analyze with QCharts Link then may, just maybe you get the feeling that SOMEBODY out there KNOWS where this thing is going and MIGHT have a little more info that we do.

As Gordon Gecco taught us (1987 film: Wall Street) ... "information" is important.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 2:19:49 AM

FCX 5-minute interval chart Link

WKLY R2 up at $31.48 and I think "thank goodness for market reaction to Obama's budget," and the bid pull to the close. Does get FCX back below WKLY R1, but what is it doing up here when major BELOW their WKLY Pivots?

Trader tip ... where has the ES been this evening's extended?

Even though it is all retail (institutions run during the day as they hedge CASH session with futures).

The "tip" is that tomorrow's REGULAR SESSION DERIVED DAILY PIVOT LEVELS will have FCX and ES/SPX/SPY then in unison and we can LOOK for the SIMILARITY or the DIVERGENCE.

Now, SEE YOUR SHORT COVER Tuesday morning at $26.45? That was JUST UNDER the then RED #1 of the 5-mrt technique I've taught you. See FCX when it reclaimed the DAILY Pivot $27.32 from there? Then on Wednesday, the early "either side" of the WKLY Pivot?.

Friday's DAILY Pivot Levels (RSD) will be $28.50, $39.30, Piv=$30.60, $31.40, $32.70.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 2:00:19 AM

OK, Friday morning I'm going to use the 5-MRT tool, and I'll turn on the QCharts' daily pivot levels on FCX. (this is what I was doing morning of 02/24/09). I've also got my 11/20/08 to 01/06/09 retracement on the chart. It will be BLUE.

I KNOW what 1/2 position short looked like at $31.91 Thursday. Now I'm trying to manage from there. Sometime the MARKET gives a trader a second chance. Sometimes its best to take it.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 1:50:21 AM

Copper Continuous $0.04 box chart Link

Freeport McMoran (FCX) Link

(See earlier MM posts this evening/morning). BEARS may need some EQUITY MARKET weakness to provide the drag on FCX to keep things in check near-term.

RIO call "some protection" but certainly not enough when FCX was $30.91.

See how copper is starting to show some buyers firming above $1.36? Use the BULLISH and BEARISH vertical counts to assess RISK. These counts (bull/bear) may not be achieved, they may also be exceeded. USE THEM TO ASSESS RISK/REWARD in the trade (BULL= RISK to sell signal / REWARD to BULL VERTICAL COUNT); (BEAR= RISK to buy signal / REWARD to BEAR VERTICAL COUNT).

Copper is currently showing a "buy signal" intact from late January at $1.60 (me thinks FCX ~$28/~29-ish), and that colum is BULLISH VERT. COUNT. Why is support forming, why a bullish vertical count with global economy in the dumps?

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 1:25:24 AM

I will be in and out of the MM Friday. I've got one client meeting and two phone conference meetings.

Freeport McMoran (FCX) $30.09 +2.26% ... "should not" have some as close to my $32.00 stop as it did today, and the SIZE of that position looking a bit too large for the $10K account, so I'm going to suggest those currently short 1/2 position we monitor it close. When we covered for +2.61% gain on 02/24/09, then entered at higher entry of $27.16 on 02/17/09 I was looking at technicals and thinking scenario of long-time until copper gets going. Some market participant reactions to various parts of stimulus and budget today may become some longer-term trend.

The question now is ... "is the stimulus baked in, and is it big enough (telecom and power grid) to have more impact and push market participants into the stock and drive price higher?

We've seen the "safe haven" mentality of market participants, and it would have to be my opinion that the BULK of the buy-side is going to gravitate to any place the GOVERNMENT is going to spend.

Housing construction is BIG consumer of copper and it is in the dumps still, but this telecom and power grid (power grid is needed for next expansion cycle, remember the power shut downs a couple of summers ago) and you know how important COMMUNICATIONS are. The internet is probably one of the greatest productivity tools during my life and faster is better.

So, when a light bulb goes on (no matter how early, or how late) I become a more on the al_rt.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 12:47:47 AM

We'll buy some more time this time on CI Link and put buyers will want to see a break of trend after today's triple bottom sell signal.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 12:47:42 AM

Doesn't that just eat at you a bit? 1-day, just 1-day of expiration ... UNH Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 12:47:25 AM

Recovery.gov ... and where taxpayer money is going Link

Today's morning action in FCX (copper) and recent week's action in Silver (precious; more industrial than gold), and Gold (precious; some telecom/chipsets) may be part of the telecom infrastructure. Was/is gold/silver rising to hedge currency? Or responsive to stimulus? Didn't hit me today until about FCX $30.91 when I asked myself ... "What the heck is going on?"

Protecting the "vulnerable." You should read that. I'm all for helping those that can't help themselves, let me be clear, but there's a lot of stuff that is crazy!

Have you seen the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan (.pdf) Link .... It is creative and some good things in it.

But! Incentives to help borrowers stay current= You don't just need to make your mortgage payment to keep a roof over your head! TAXPAYER will foot the bill and give you a $1,000 incentive payment each year (up to five years) if you do!

See? The government is on to us. As we look around and see all these "other" guys getting bail money for POOR RISK MANAGEMENT, the government now wants to provide INCENTIVE to do what's right in the first place.

I'm not "Obama bashing" ... YOU KNOW I HAD A BIG PROBLEM when President Bush gave his "entrepreneurial spirit" speech after Katrina/Rita, then took FEDERAL money and offered INCENTIVES to business that would come back to New Orleans. Isn't an "entrepreneur" one that takes on RISK, but looks for REWARD from their own effort?

I'm currently in the process trying to see if I can't get some of that "incentive to borrow" action. I'm current on the house payment, but why not get an extra $1,000.00/year. Problem might be definition of "at risk?" How does one that is current on mortgage be "at risk?" Do I have to miss a payment to get some attention? (I'm serious here).

I figure my federal taxes are going to be going through the roof as it is.

You know the price of goose decoys these days? One can NEVER have enough decoys. (wink)

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 12:08:43 AM

S&P Market Carpet (2-days) after Stimulus Bill Link

Remember that MM post on 02/17/09 at 2:14:21 NY AG Says Cigna Will Pay $10M For Database

That in my opinion was the "first step" of intrusion. It isn't/wasn't the $10 million. It's what the GOVERNMENT will mandate as it tries to start setting prices in my opinion and make judgement on "you're making/charging way too much."

The question I still do have with the HMO's is will they be able to CHARGE HIGHER PREMIUMS and keep up with costs. Remember the HMO's decline from September to November (Obama= RIGHT of every American to have healthcare; McCain= Not a RIGHT, but different ways to try and help affordability), then the "recovery" until earlier this month. During the "recovery" there seemed to be a re-think to my earlier analysis (government intervention will implode) the health insurers as they try and shift medicare/medicaid. $HMO.X Link

If you've read the stimulus package and the budget, you'll see government workings. For the stimulus, they WANT something in return.

You see some state governors questioning if they think their state should accept stimulus dollars because of the Federal strings attached. It's a tough decision for sure, because even if they DO NOT accept the funds, their citizens are still being stuck with the eventual Federal deficit and tax burden.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2009 12:01:05 AM

S&P Market Carpet (2-days) 02/24-02/26/09 Link

Remember, or at least it is my opinion, that President Obama is more "American" (protectionist) ... thinking FCX vs. RIO perhaps.

Now will discuss some of this later, but I've been able to list 100 reason to NOT like President Obama's theory on economy for every 10 reasons to. So, I'm trying to look for the 10 reasons to grasp his ideas from bull side.

See SLM today? President Obama's "priority" is to fix college educations.

He's going to try and fix healthcare to. Aflac may be "short covering bounce" as stock has been "crushed like grape" of late. Me thinks there's a lot more of that coming as we move to socialized healthcare.

Keene Little : 2/26/2009 11:22:42 PM

Friday's pivot table: Link

The 60-min charts for SPX and DOW show how they're each reacting around the tops of their parallel down-channels. SPX broke above Wednesday and then back below it on Thursday. It bounced back up to it and failed at the close. Bearish. The DOW dropped back down to it and essentially held into the close. Bullish (maybe).
SPX: Link
DOW: Link

The bounce off Monday's low is very choppy and therefore a correction to the decline. What's not clear is whether the corrective bounce will get larger (pink) or drop a little lower (dark red) before it's ready for another bounce on its way to lower lows next month.

Jeff Bailey : 2/26/2009 10:56:57 PM

AMT $28.80 +7.38% ...
AMAT $9.84 +4.12% ... I've mentioned their "solar chip" group.

Jeff Bailey : 2/26/2009 10:51:21 PM

Market Cap Gainers/Loser and Driving Stocks Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/26/2009 10:46:15 PM

Today's ETF Heatmap Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/26/2009 10:40:35 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/26/2009 10:37:25 PM

From some of what I've posted the last couple of weeks, what you've seen, and the very good questions you've asked. What are the SURPRISES? What has NOT made sense?

Think ... think real hard.

How about US$ up and GOLD/SILVER up.

No, no, no ... think OUTSIDE the box. Not what we're used to thinking about regarding this relationship.

Yes ... now think COPPER.

Now think STIMULUS and 10-year BUDGET.

Jeff Bailey : 2/26/2009 10:34:34 PM

That's it! Or some of it!

OI Technical Staff : 2/26/2009 9:59:59 PM

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