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Keene Little : 3/16/2009 3:57:27 PM

I stand corrected on my last post about today's doji candlestick (thanks John). I said it is a dragonfly doji and that would be true for our trader friends who live in the southern hemisphere since they're upside down (wink). Today's daily candlestick is looking like a bearish gravestone doji, not a dragonfly doji.

Jim Brown : 3/16/2009 3:52:31 PM

A reader asked if the DXO was subject to the same expiration pressures as the USO. He also asked if the DXO was based on Brent or WTI. Here was the result of my research.

As of 3/13 the DXO is 100% leveraged to the July Light Crude (CL) contract expiring on June-22nd. The specs do not specifically say Brent but only light crude.

DB says the tracking index symbol for the DXO is DBLCO-CL-T where CL means Crude Light and T = Treasury.




The USO held 22% of the open interest in the March crude light futures and we saw significant pressure in oil prices as a result. The USO rolls forward, on a fixed schedule, a portion of its holdings every month. As such the USO may be a better pure play on expiration pressures.

Keene Little : 3/16/2009 3:37:19 PM

SPX 755.90 would be gap close from Friday's close. We might get a decent bounce off that level (assuming it will get tagged before the close today). At this point it's looking like we should stair-step lower but I wouldn't be surprised to see price consolidate into the close as it runs down the clock and keeps the blue chips in positive territory. The daily candle at this point looks like a dragonfly doji (more bearish version of the shooting star) at resistance and is a reversal pattern if tomorrow's candle is red, which I believe it will be.

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 3:21:55 PM

The SPX retraces 50% of the decline from the January 28th highs to its March lows Link

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 3:18:09 PM

The NDX is very weak today and a huge drag on the other markets. Link

Jim Brown : 3/16/2009 3:14:58 PM

I think I would be a seller of oil here at $47.25 or short the DXO at its current $2.50. Options on crude futures expire on Tuesday and the futures themselves expire on Friday. I could be wrong but I think the risk is to the downside rather than the upside. We are seeing significant resistance in the $44-$50 range.

Keene Little : 3/16/2009 3:03:32 PM

This morning's pullback low for SPX was near 760.50 and that's one reason why I said before that a drop below 760 would confirm we've seen the end of the rally leg from last week.

Keene Little : 3/16/2009 3:00:32 PM

After popping higher this morning and getting just above $100 GS is now making new daily lows and just dropped through 95 and has broken Friday's low. That's a bearish sign.

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 2:34:01 PM

We are getting chop - a very good example of "You need all the internals in sync to get a decent follow through move."

And all the internals are not in sync, AD volume is very bullish but the VIX is meandering along just smelling the flowers, it is not going anywhere. So the market has an upward pull but cannot make any move stick.

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 2:24:43 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Hearst Corp. said Monday that one of its most prominent newspaper publications, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, will soon be published solely on the Internet as the souring economy continues to accelerate the decline of print advertising.

Closely-held Hearst said in a statement that the 146-year-old publication will print its last edition Tuesday and become the largest daily U.S. newspaper to shift entirely online.

In January, Hearst announced that the Post-Intelligencer was for sale and said that it would stop printing within 60 days if no buyer was found.

Media analyst John Morton said that while the Post-Intelligencer will remain on the Web, it will likely only be able to support a small portion of its existing newsroom. "The online newspaper model doesn't support a good deal of journalism," Morton said.

Keene Little : 3/16/2009 2:11:47 PM

SPX is now testing its uptrend line from Monday, here at 768.50, the first test since Friday afternoon. It's starting to break as I type.

Keene Little : 3/16/2009 1:57:46 PM

The SPX 60-min chart shows how it has made it into the middle of the 770-780 resistance zone and could press a little higher to the Fib projection at 779 before finishing. A break below 766 would be a bearish heads up and below 760 would confirm the high is in. Link

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 1:41:51 PM

AD volume will most certainly keep you out of any short positions but the VIX is not yet supporting the long side. I hate to waste a day like this because you don't see that kind of AD volume trajectory too often. Link

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 1:39:45 PM

I suspected the volume for the Crude May contract would overtake the April contract early this week. So far May's volume is 44,725 and April is 43,652. If you trade Crude as of today you will have to trade May.

James Brown : 3/16/2009 1:39:59 PM

Bear-Market Bounce Continues!
(Intraday Update)

The week is off to a strong start with the U.S. markets stair-stepping higher. The appearance of U.S. Treasury Secretary Geitner and President Obama on T.V. to talk about the administration's improvements for small businesses did not stop the rise in stocks. It seems that normally when the Treasury Secretary or President or Fed Chairman come on T.V. markets start to slide. Currently the S&P 500 is up 2% to 772 and nearing potential short-term resistance at 778. The NASDAQ composite is lagging the S&P with a 0.4% gain. The NASDAQ index is nearing potential resistance at 1450. The Dow Industrials are up 130 points to 7,354.

The Asian markets were up today. The Japanese NIKKEI continues to bounce from 26-year lows and added another 1.7% today. The Chinese Shanghai composite rose 1.1%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng surged 3.6%. The Hang Seng, like the U.S. markets, is starting to look short-term overbought given the extent of its oversold bounce but it's worth noting that the rally has broken through some significant trendlines of lower highs.

European markets were also in positive territory today. The German DAX rose 2%. The French CAC 40 rose 3.1%. The English FTSE rallied 2.6%. I don't want to spread any false hopes but these three major European markets all look like they may have produced a bullish double-bottom over the last few weeks. Financial stocks helped lead the rally overseas. International banking giant HSBC Holdings (NYSE: HBC) said that the bank would not need any additional help from the British government even if business conditions continue to slide. This news sent the company's U.S. listed shares to a 5.5% gain.

A lot of talk on the street today was reaction to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's appearance on CBS' "60 Minutes" television show over the weekend. What made this unusual is that Bernanke was the first sitting Fed Chairman to do a T.V. interview in about twenty years. Bernanke expressed his belief that the government's actions over the last several months has helped avert a full-blown depression like the one we experience in the 1930s.

Mr. Bernanke seemed hopeful that the current economic downturn would end this year but that the recovery would be a slow one beginning 2010. The chairman does believe that U.S. unemployment will continue to rise and he doubted that lawmakers had the "political will" to continue the country's overhaul of the financial system. On a positive note Bernanke did say that the major U.S. banks were solvent and would not fail. This last comment certainly gave a boost to the banking sector. The BIX banking index is up 7% and the BKX is up 5.8%. Shares of Citigroup (C) are up 38.7% to $2.47. Shares of Bank of America (BAC) are up 17.5% to $6.75.

Meanwhile in economic news the latest industrial production numbers continue to show the economy in decline. February's report showed a 1.4% drop, which was worse than expected. Industrial production numbers have now fallen four months in a row and declined 10 out of the last 12 months.

Oil also made headlines today. OPEC just held a meeting in Vienna on Sunday. Several members were calling for increased cutbacks to raise the price of oil. The Saudis managed to keep the fringe OPEC members in line and the meeting adjourned with the group deciding to keep production where it's at now. Last December OPEC announced sharp cuts and over the weekend their spokesman said the group had 80% compliance, which I assume is impressive for a cartel notorious for cheating. The news that there would not be another cut in oil production sent oil prices plunging -5% overnight but crude had bounced back to +1% midday at $46.85 a barrel. OPEC's next meeting is May 28th.

I did get a chance to watch U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geitner speak at the small business press conference this morning. The audience cheered when he announced that new rules would allow small businesses to increase the carryback provision from two years to five years. Here's an excerpt:

Establish Five-Year Carryback Provision to Increase Tax Refunds for Small Businesses:Today, the IRS will issue guidance for a provision in the Recovery Act that allows businesses with gross receipts of up to $15 million to "carry back" their losses for up to five years, effectively allowing them a rebate on taxes paid in previous years. The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that this measure will increase liquidity for small businesses by $4.7 billion by September 30, 2009.

You can see the official release with more details here: Link

A quick look at the major market averages:

Chart of the S&P 500:

Chart of the NASDAQ:

Chart of the Dow Industrials:

Now for a quick check of the OptionInvestor.com play list. Boeing (BA) is up another 4% today to $34.75. If you have not taken profits yet readers may want to do so soon. Our second target for BA is actually $35.75 but the stock is up sharply from its lows under $30.00. BIDU hit some profit taking and is down 4.9% at $164. Keep an eye on the $160 level and $155 mark as possible short-term support. I think the bounce in NEM is starting to stall. Readers might want to reconsider new bearish positions here. Goldman Sachs (GS) our new strangle play is still hovering around the $100 level. Remember, that today is our only chance to open positions ahead of the Tuesday morning earnings report.

Trading note on PremierInvestor's play list: Our bearish bet on GRS has been started. The stock hit our trigger for bearish positions at $6.90 this morning.

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 1:37:59 PM

I have been hearing rumors the Seattle Post-Intelligencer was in real trouble and I guess those rumors were true. The Seattle Post Intelligencer will print its last edition on Tuesday.

Jim Brown : 3/16/2009 1:36:51 PM

I wish somebody would explain the price of oil today. OPEC did not cut production and said it was still overproducing by 800,000 bpd due to cheaters. Why is that bullish? The analysts are saying the rebound came on Iranian security concerns citing a shoot down of an unmanned Iranian surveillance aircraft over Iraq last month. Why is that suddenly bullish for oil? Another analyst said oil was up today because of the rally in equities. I don't see that connection other than maybe equities are up on expectations for an end to the recession and that would be bullish for oil but that is still six months away. I suspect today's oil rally is due to bets placed ahead of OPEC, probably shorts covering now. Futures expire on Friday so there is still the potential for a decline this week.

Keene Little : 3/16/2009 1:35:26 PM

It's me! I can stop fooling around, pretending to be people I'm not.

NDX has still not been able to get out of the red as the DOW and SPX rally +2%. SOX is down -1.7%. We've seen this picture before and we know the ending is not good (for bulls).

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 1:34:21 PM

Heh Keene at least you have the gender right this time. Remember when Jeff got Linda and me mixed up about 3 years ago? When he realized his mistake he said he had Linda on his brain but me on his finger tips. That is one I will remember forever.

Jim Brown : 3/16/2009 1:27:11 PM

You have to watch Keene. I think he is experiencing a personality disorder. First he assumes Linda's identity then mine. I think he must be delirious from all those Elliott Waves.

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 1:22:52 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. home builders remained extremely discouraged about their business in early March, according to a monthly survey released Monday by an industry trade group. The housing market index stayed at 9 on a scale of 1 to 100 in March, the National Association of Home Builders said, just above the all-time low of 8 reached in January. The index has been either 8 or 9 in the five months since November. At the current level, the index shows that about one in 12 builders says business is good.

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 1:16:04 PM

Crude is rallying and heading towards resistance. Link

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 1:07:27 PM

AD line is a very bullish +2000 and that may be enough to pull the VIX downward and give the market some help.

Jim Brown : 3/16/2009 1:06:13 PM

This is Keene--Jim got tired of looking at me as a cross dresser and said I could masquerade as him for a while. Upside resistance for SPX is now lining up between 776 and 779 so watch for a shorting opportunity if price stalls in that area. The uptrend line from Monday is now near 766 so the area between resistance and support is narrowing.

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 12:55:07 PM

I see ES is making new daily highs but I would not be buying it.

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 12:54:29 PM

Here are the charts of the VIX and ES and as you can see the VIX is not bullish so any new daily highs will probably not have follow-through. It was a buyer's market earlier but is not now - it now time to step aside. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2009 12:54:03 PM

from Keene: the banks have had a very bullish run over the past week and it was preceded by some strong bullish divergences. So it's quite possible we've seen the low and even if the broader market drops to a new low this month the banks might not follow (and give us only a pullback correction instead). That remains to be seen. In the meantime, XLF, the financial SPDR, has reached the top of the down-channel that it's been in since last year, which was tested in October, November and January. XLF daily chart: Link

Being overbought as it challenges the top of its channel, and not much above it is its 50-dma, my guess is that it's at least due a pullback. This coincides with what I see as an approaching end to the rally in the broader market. If you're long some banks I'd use this opportunity to at least hedge your position, perhaps sell some covered calls and/or buy a few puts.

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 12:41:27 PM

However right blocking the bonuses of companies that were blatantly greedy and had to take government bailout money may feel, if you block one companies' then you have to block bonuses for all. And how do you determine which companies' bonuses you block and which you do not. It is a slippery slope I don?t think the government should slip down.

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 12:32:32 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- President Obama said Monday he'll try to block bonuses being paid to traders at American International Group (AIG) , which has received $175 billion in federal bailout money. "This is a corporation that finds itself in financial distress due to recklessness and greed," Obama said. "How do they justify this outrage to the taxpayers who are keeping the company afloat?" Obama said he'd asked Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner to explore "every legal avenue to block these bonuses and make the American taxpayers whole." On Sunday, White House adviser Larry Summers said the bonuses are being paid out under contracts already in place before the insurance giant became a ward of the state, and that abrogating the contracts might be impossible.

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 12:31:38 PM

Ad line and ratio are bullish but the VIX is not so expect chop. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2009 11:58:38 AM

from Keene: the SPX uptrend line from last Monday is now just above 762--just keep pulling your short stop (for either an exit from a long or entry into a short) up underneath that uptrend line.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2009 11:01:49 AM

With the push higher this morning it adds credibility to the bearish wave count I showed last night on the SPX 30-min chart which I've cleaned up here: Link . The bearish divergences are supporting the idea that the rally is coming to a conclusion and my interpretation of the wave pattern for the rally leg fits well with the larger wave count calling for one more decline to a new low. The top end of the 770-780 resistance zone is looking like a reasonable expectation to finish the leg up but understand the minimum requirement has now been met. The uptrend line from last Monday is now just above 759.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2009 10:47:44 AM

from Keene: either these bearish setups that I'm showing are going to get blown out of the water, which would be a very strong bullish statement, or else we're getting ready for the next strong decline to new lows for the year. Until we get the bullish confirmation I'm in the bears' camp. There are too many that have turned too bullish too quickly so if you're long the market and prefer that side you should at least move into profit protection mode.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2009 10:44:32 AM

from Keene: the Transports are rallying strong today, up +4.4%, and the TRAN is nearing an area that could be an important test of the rally leg. Between Fib projections for its rally off Monday's low and the top of a down-channel from January I have potential resistance in the 2525-2560 area (currently trading 2525) for what should be the top of its 4th wave correction before heading to a new low into the end of the month, as shown on its daily chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2009 10:30:45 AM

from Keene: the SOX is an interesting study in trend lines. The daily chart shows how it reguarly breaks and then retests up and down trend lines and most recently (Friday and this morning) has tested its broken uptrend line from November-January lows. There's been no follow through in any direction for the past few months and who knows how long that will continue. But for the short term I'm getting a bearish feeling about the semis. SOX daily chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2009 10:22:27 AM

from Keene: Techs are not doing well today and on Friday NDX broke its uptrend line from last Monday. It ran up quickly this morning and almost tagged it for a bearish kiss goodbye. If it's all part of a larger corrective pattern it should find support around 1143-1144. Below 1140 would spell trouble for the bulls (currently trading 1152).

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 10:20:34 AM

NQ is now breaking its ON lows putting downward pressure on the market, however, both ES and YM are holding up admirably.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2009 10:13:53 AM

from Keene: ideally we'll get a little consolidation this morning followed by another poke higher to finish the rally. The top of the parallel down-channel from January is near SPX 772 and its uptrend line from last Monday is now near 756.50. It'll be the battle of the trend lines which intersect before the end of the day.

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 10:04:31 AM

Here are your ON charts and it looks like NQ is heading in the opposite direction of the other markets. This is quite odd. Link

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 9:50:41 AM

With a falling VIX and AD line at +1550 I would not be shorting this market.

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 9:58:57 AM

VIX spiked from a Friday close at 42.40 to open at 43.45 but is now falling so the pressure is upwards.

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 9:38:54 AM

AD line is a strong +1271.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2009 9:38:06 AM

from Keene: At this point the uptrend line from last Monday is an important one, currently near SPX 755. A break of it would mean last week's rally has finished.

Linda Piazza : 3/16/2009 9:31:43 AM

This is Keene as I'll still be Linda today until my login gets fixed. Equity futures shot higher after the European markets opened (they were in the red before that) and at this point it's looking like we're going to get the push higher as part of what could be the final wave of a bearish wave count. SPX 770-780 remains the target/resistance zone.

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 9:26:57 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities plunged 1.4% in February, the Federal Reserve said Monday. Output has fallen in four straight months and five out of the last six months. The February decline was worse than expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Analysts had been expecting a 0.9% drop. Output in January was also slightly weaker than previously estimated. Output fell a revised 1.9% in January, compared with the initial estimate of a 1.8% drop. Capacity utilization - a gauge of slack in the econony -- fell to 70.9%. This matches a record low for the series which dates back to the late 1960s. For factories alone, capacity in use fell to a new record post-war low of 67.4.0%.

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 9:27:11 AM

The head and shoulders pattern on the Gold chart is starting to look a little lopsided and when that happens the outcome becomes less probable. Unless, of course. the right shoulder is the March 13th swing high and not the Mar 6th high. This would make more sense because they is 15 days between the left shoulder and the head so you would want 15 days between the head and the right shoulder which would be March 13th. I may have been snookered into thinking the March 6th high was the right should because it was so prominent. I'll just sit and watch and have nothing on the line so I don't really care which way it goes although I do have a bullish bias. Link

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 9:17:21 AM

All markets broke their previous day highs overnight and all but NQ (NDX futures) are still above those highs. The bullish spike at around 12:00ET could have been the decision from OPEC but not sure. Link

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 9:08:58 AM

Crude did fall overnight due to the OPEC countries' decision to keep production quotas unchanged but reports that crude was crushed were a little overstated, IMHO. I think this market has a very good chance of regaining what it lost ON and make another run at $48-50 resistance, which will probably be successful. Link

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 9:03:29 AM

TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' decision over the weekend to keep production quotas unchanged was an important call disguised as a non-event and its potential effect on the global markets was starting to show in Monday's Asian trading.

The oil cartel, which controls about a third of the world's oil production, said Sunday at a meeting Vienna that it will leave oil-output levels unchanged and will fully comply with production targets the group agreed to late last year. See full story.

OPEC may have been more "concerned about the effects a cut might have on the already teetering world economy," said Darin Newsom, DTN senior analyst.

Oil prices and oil-related shares in Asia headed lower in the wake of the decision.

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 9:01:19 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The chairman of the Federal Reserve said in a rare interview televised Sunday that the U.S. recession will come to an end "probably this year," but he also warned that the nation's 8.1% unemployment rate will continue to rise.

Appearing on the CBS network's "60 Minutes," Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told correspondent Scott Pelley that concerted efforts by the government likely averted a depression similar to the 1930s. He also said the nation's largest banks are solvent and that he doesn't expect any of them to fail.

At the same time, Bernanke expressed concern the U.S. might lack the political will to take further measures to shore up the financial system. Although he said he believes the largest banks are solvent and that "they are not going to fail," Bernanke said a full recovery won't take place until the system is stabilized.

Jane Fox : 3/16/2009 9:00:26 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The Empire State manufacturing survey fell 4 points in March to -38.2, a fresh record low, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported on Monday. Just 10% of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 48% reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index plunged 14 points to -44.8, eclipsing the record low set last month, it added.

Linda Piazza : 3/15/2009 11:26:09 PM

This is from Keene, not Linda, as I'm still having trouble with my login to the MM input site. I understand the MM is back up and running so hopefully they'll get my login fixed.

I had mentioned just before the close on Friday that the bulls may not be doing themselves a favor by continuing to press the market higher without a decent pullback first. We'll know quickly on Monday whether the bearish setup is upon us or if we'll get a larger pullback first which could then set up a decent rally into opex Friday.

Starting with a look at just the rally from last Friday, March 9th, the wave count shown in dark red on the 30-min chart below is looking for a little higher on Monday to finish a double zigzag (two a-b-c's separated by an x-wave) to complete the 4th wave within the decline from January (this will be easier to see in the daily chart later). That count calls for the resumption of the decline to new lows into the end of the month. As I'll show on the 120-min chart, the resistance zone for the top of this a-b-c-x-a-b-c count is in the SPX 770-780 area. SPX 30-min chart: Link

The pink wave count says we got a 5-wave move to Friday morning's high and the afternoon rally was simply part of a larger pullback correction. This interpretation requires an immediate down day on Monday and would keep alive the possibility that once the pullback finishes (perhaps down to about 700-715) we'll see another rally leg into the end of the week. A move above 763 would confirm the dark red count and below 742 would confirm the pink count (which could morph into something else but we can worry about that once it gets started).

Stepping out for a larger look, the SPX 120-min chart below puts the move into perspective when looking at the decline from February. I've noted the resistance zone between 770-780 which is based on the October 2002 low, the top of a parallel down-channel (parallel to the trend line along the wave-1 and wave-3 lows in January and March), a previous 4th wave and the projection for equality in this week's rally leg (between each a-b-c of the double zigzag, labeled wave w and y). If SPX rallies up into this area on Monday it would be a very good shorting opportunity (with a stop above 780). SPX 120-min chart: Link

And then stepping further away to see how this fits on the daily chart, the wave count for the move down from January is in need of a 5th wave down to complete the pattern. Ironically, if the market were to rally strongly from here (above 800) it would be a bearish sign that we haven't put in the low for the year as it would suggest we'll only get a couple of months' rally before the market drops back down to new yearly lows. But if the market instead drops down to a new low this month we would be set up for a much more bullish year. So longer-term bulls really want a new low this month. Mr. Bull, are you listening? SPX daily chart: Link

There are some other signs that last week's rally may have been just another quick bear-market rally. The daily chart of the Wilshire 5000 index shows the higher volume during the decline and lower volume during the rally. We want to see volume supporting the rally and that's not happening. I've also made notes on the chart to show we didn't have any bullish divergences with the oscillators at the March low. While that's not a necessary technical signal it gives a better confirmation of a bottom when you have it. And with MACD still below zero the bulls can't claim any victories yet. DWC daily chart: Link

OI Technical Staff : 3/15/2009 9:59:59 PM

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