Option Investor
Update
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Crude is taking a breather today and will probably not let us know its intentions until next week.

If this market continues upward and breaks the March 26th swing high then the trend remains up but if it makes a lower high and then subsequently breaks the April 1 swing low the trend changes to downward and the bears are back in control. I suspect the bulls will win based on the bullish MACD.

I had a discussion with another trader yesterday about the MACD, a very good trader who uses the MACD almost exclusively like I do. He said the MACD was overdone and showed how overbought Crude was but I had to respectively disagree because there is no mechanism in the MACD to determine if it is overdone or not. I think you need other indicators for overbought or oversold, the MACD is used to compare swing highs to one another and to see if the bears or the bulls are in control of the trend.

In any case, until either one of the above scenarios plays out I will be sitting on the sidelines

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