Market Monitor Update, Tuesday, 04/07/2009 01:08:33 PM EDT
by Keene H. Little
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
The key level to the downside is 810 because a drop below that level, which is the high on March 31st, would negate the bullish wave count calling for a 5th wave up in the rally off the March 30th low (the 4th wave pullback can't overlap the top of wave 1). In the meantime, because the price pattern for the pullback from last Thursday's high looks potentially corrective (overlapping highs and lows on the way down), it remains possible that all we're getting is a bull flag correction that will resolve to the upside. A break above yesterday afternoon's high (837.37) would tell us the pullback is finished.
We could break down directly from here or we might get another leg up in today's bounce before breaking down (for the bearish case). Both scenarios are shown on the SPX 15-min chart:
SPX 15-min chart: