Option Investor
Update
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Because the decline from last week's high looks so corrective (choppy mess is more like it) I'm playing around with a couple of different ideas for what the larger pattern might be. One thought is that it's extremely bullish because the pattern from the March low may be developing another 2nd wave pullback which would mean once it's finished we'll be set up for a 3rd of a 3rd wave higher (which would make the March rally look small by comparison). I have my doubts for a number of reasons about that scenario but from a purely EW perspective it remains possible.

There are two other more likely possibilities, in my opinion. One is for the pullback to be followed by one more choppy rise higher into opex, topping out around 870 (shown last night on the daily chart with the pink move higher inside the rising wedge pattern off the March low). The other possibility is that this choppy decline will be just the first of several choppy moves up and down as the market works its way lower within the larger descending wedge pattern shown on the daily chart. Here's a slightly closer view of the daily chart:

SPX daily chart:
[Image 1]

Each of the scenarios calls for the same short-term pattern shown on the 30-min chart. The choppy pullback pattern should get another leg down to complete what I think will be a double zigzag wave count (a-b-c-x-a-b-c). This says the current bounce this morning should fail at or below this morning's first high and then a drop down towards 805, possibly finishing early tomorrow morning.

SPX 30-min chart:
[Image 2]

I've changed the key level to the downside based on this pattern and how I think it fits into the larger pattern. I don't think 810 is a critical level anymore but a break below 800 would be more immediately bearish. As for the upside, a break above 838 remains the critical level for the bulls to break. That should usher in a move up to at least 870.

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