Option Investor
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As the choppy pattern continues I want to run through a couple of charts to show where I think the most likely scenarios could go. For each, remember the key levels since they'll identify which scenario is likely playing out. For example, on the updated 30-min chart below, a rally above the previous high just over 837 would be bullish, hence the key level at 838 for the upside scenario (green). To the downside I moved the key level slightly lower to 795 to match an uptrend line drawn along the lows since March 20th (seen better on the 60-min chart).

SPX 30-min chart:
[Image 1]

It's possible we're getting some kind of an expanded triangle pattern playing out, which is a bearish pattern but could easily tolerate another push higher into opex. Werner sent me a chart showing a rounding top formation since the March 25th highs and the declining volume (including on the down days) supports that idea. All of the choppiness also supports a topping pattern. But for now we need to consider several possibilities and the choppy price action leaves too many choices to make any confident prediction for the next week's price action. The 60-min chart shows those scenarios on the 30-min chart and where they might lead into next week. I moved the key level up on the 60-min chart to 840 to tie in with a couple of trend lines. Notice the current struggle around the uptrend lines from the March low.

SPX 60-min chart:
[Image 2]

The daily chart shows even further out how each of the scenarios could play out. This is obviously speculation at this time but they would be typical wave patterns, depending on which short-term pattern shows itself over the next week or so. From a daily chart perspective the key level to the upside is 870 where a price projection to 870 (for two equal legs up from the November low) crosses the top of a rising wedge pattern for the rally from March on April 14th (next Tuesday). To the downside the key level is at 790 which is the 50-dma (and would be a clear break below the uptrend line from March 23rd, shown on the 30 and 60-min charts).

SPX daily chart:
[Image 3]

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