Market Monitor Update, Thursday, 04/16/2009 04:05:47 PM EDT
by Keene H. Little
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
We can draw a rising wedge for price action off the March low with the top of the wedge starting from the March 23rd high. But we can also view price action since the March 17th low as being contained inside a parallel up-channel and a smaller rising wedge within that channel. The price pattern is very choppy and full of overlapping highs and lows, which leaves the EW count subject to lots of interpretation. Therefore I'm watching the trend lines, including the ones on the oscillators, for evidence of a change in trend (bullish until it's not).
Yesterday's low is important for the bulls to hold and while I see the potential for a rally up to the SPX 880-885 area to trendline and Fib resistance, the fact that it stopped at 870 (equalling the November-January rally) is the first heads up that the rally might have topped out today. Keep an eye on the uptrend line from April 1st in the meantime, currently near 847.
SPX 120-min chart: