Option Investor
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The market is showing us some symmetry in time and price and it's always a good idea to pay attention to market turns around these setups. I've talked about the fact that several indices and sectors and showing setups for reversals based on the fact that the March-April rally is equal to the November-January rally. I've been using the semiconductor index (SOX) as a good example of a setup to play the short side. Two equal legs for its bounce off the November low was at 256.78 and last week's high was at 256.86. Setups just don't get any sweeter than that one. That was my pound-the-table short play. Today's drop has clearly broken its uptrend line from March and is looking like good confirmation that the top is in. If you shorted that index (SMH) the proper place for a stop for now is just above last week's high--for this play to work there's no way that stop should be tagged and if it is then you don't want to be short the market, period.

SOX daily chart:
[Image 1]

Looking at the RUT's daily chart it too is showing symmetry in both time and form. The November-January rally was an a-b-c bounce with the c-wave forming an ending diagonal (rising wedge). The rally took 29 trading days. The March-Arpil rally is so far an a-b-c bounce with the c-wave forming an ending diagonal. The rally took 28 trading days and ended just shy of equality in price. The January-March decline was an a-b-c decline that took 42 trading days. If we get another leg down to a new low, as depicted on the daily chart, and it lasts 42 trading days I get a June 16 target date. If it is just shy of equality in price with the January-March decline I get 314 for a price target. Those time and price projections intersect at the trend line along the November and March lows.

RUT daily chart:
[Image 2]

That gives you some sense of what we could be looking at if we haven't seen the low for the year yet. If the March low is a more significant low then we'll get a correction of the rally (could go deeper or shallower than the dashed line depiction) and then another rally leg into June instead. I'll obviously be updating this chart along the way to help determine which longer-term path it might be on. The SOX, and a few others, is what has me thinking we'll get the new low but price will have to show us the setup as the decline gets underway (assuming of course it has now started).

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