Market Monitor Update, Monday, 04/20/2009 02:32:50 PM EDT
by Keene H. Little
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
The BIX is trading at 91, or -11.5% at the moment and is down more than 14 points from its high above 105 on Firday. It is clearly one of the leaders to the downside today but its daily chart doesn't look like much has been damaged from a technical perspective. Its uptrend line from March 6th is down near 83 and in the meantime the top of its parallel down-channel that it broke above last week could offer support, currently near 88. But its wave count is potentially bearish like the broader market. It has an a-b-c bounce off the March low but could be a more bullish 1-2-3 with today's pullback as just part of what will become a 4th wave correction before pressing higher again.
BIX daily chart:
I don't like the bullish count idea (3rd wave looks too short) but it would not be negated until price drops below the March 19th high at 87.10 as that would confirm the bounce as just a 3-wave correction. Whether that correction would be part of a larger upward correction (shown in dark green) or if instead it will lead to a new low is something we can't know for sure yet. The larger wave count has me thinking we'll see a new low for a final low for the year (perhaps in June). As with the broader market we'll simply have to watch how the decline unfolds and update key levels to identify which pattern could be playing out from here.