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The bearish trading pattern in this semiconductor stock is forecasting a breakdown soon. We're going to use a trigger to catch the move.

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New Bearish Plays
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Intel Corp - INTC - close: 22.42 change: -0.16 stop: 23.01

Company Description:
Intel, the world's largest chip maker, is also a leading manufacturer of computer, networking and communications products.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
We like INTC as a bearish candidate due to its technical weakness pure and simple. The stock has been stuck in a bearish triangle with support near $22.30 and a consistent trend of lower highs since it peaked in November. The company reported earnings that were above estimates and guided higher going forward but even this good news couldn't spark a breakout. Now with the NASDAQ hitting new lows for the year and the NDX-100 bullish-percent rolling over into a bear-alert condition we suspect that the tech sector has more weakness ahead. We are going to use a TRIGGER to catch the breakdown in shares of INTC. The pattern "should" produce a downside breakdown pretty soon because the stock price is coiling into a tighter and tighter range. We want to use an entry point at $22.24, which would be a new three-month low and a breakdown through support. More conservative traders may want to wait for a drop under its 100-dma and the $22.00 level before considering positions. The P&F chart doesn't show any support until the $19.50 region so we're going to target a decline into the $20.50-20.00 range.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked: - 0.00
Earnings Date 01/11/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 240 thousand

Active Trader (AT) NEW LONG PLAY

Dividends and Oil

This oil trust has a huge dividend yield and a bullish chart pattern that is sure to grab the bulls' interest.

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New Bullish Plays
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BP Prudhoe Bay - BPT - close: 50.21 chg: +0.75 stop: 46.39

Company Description:
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust holds royalty interest for The Standard Oil Company, BP Exploration Inc, The Bank of New York and F. James Hutchinson. The Trust distributes royalties on approximately 16 percent of the first 90,000 barrels of the average daily net production of oil and condensate per quarter from the company's working interest in the Prudhoe Bay Field. (source: Reuters Business Summary)

Why We Like It:
BPT has two things going for it. First and foremost is the rising demand for oil and crude oil prices. Second is the growing interest in dividend paying stocks. When asked where they planned to put their money to work in 2005 many fund managers said they were looking toward dividend paying equities. BPT should have a growing crowd of supporters with its 12.3 percent annual yield. The high-yield dividend and its bullish chart pattern make BPT look like a great relative strength play in the current market. We want to use a TRIGGER at $50.51 to go long and target a run towards the $55.00 region. Investors may actually want to consider this a longer-term holding considering the dividend payout and the strong possibility that rising oil prices are here to stay. FYI: The P&F chart has an ascending triple-top breakout buy signal with an $82 long-term target.

Annotated chart:

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 240 thousand

High Risk/Reward (HR) NEW SHORT PLAY

Too Extended

This investment services company looks way overbought and suddenly teetering on the edge of a big breakdown.

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New Bearish Plays
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Nuveen Investments - JNC - cls: 37.35 chg: -1.07 stop: 39.01

Company Description:
Nuveen Investments provides high-quality investment services designed to secure long-term client goals. The Company serves institutional clients, financial advisors and high-net-worth investors. The firm's asset management capabilities are marketed through four distinct brands, each with an independent investment team and area of expertise: Nuveen, focused on fixed-income investments; NWQ, specializing in value-style equities; Rittenhouse, dedicated to conservative growth-style equities; and Symphony, with expertise in alternative investment portfolios. In total, the Company manages over $115 billion in assets. Nuveen Investments, Inc. is an affiliate of The St. Paul Travelers Companies, Inc. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Before we begin let us remind our readers that this is a high-risk/reward play. Normally we strongly suggest picking a top in stocks because it can be hazardous to your financial health. We're willing to speculate on some short-term weakness in spite of JNC's current up trend based on the following observations. First the XBD broker-dealer index began to roll over a few weeks ago and the recent bounce failed with what looks like a tweezer top. The XBD's weekly chart also shows its MACD indicator rolling over towards a new sell signal from overbought levels. If the sector index looks poised for more declines then JNC could easily see some profit taking. The company just recently reported its Q4 earnings that were very strong but the reaction in the stock price was an intraday spike. It seems the strong performance has already been baked into the stock after a huge run from $25 in August to almost $40 in December. The recent high-volume drop has also produced a breakdown below the 21-dma, where shares had found support during the last couple of months. In spite of these bearish developments we're still going to use a TRIGGER to try and confirm the breakdown. There is minor support near $37.00 and we want to open shorts only if JNC trades at $36.90 or below. Our initial target is a 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement to the $34.00 level, which happens to be underpinned by the 100-dma. Our stop is a little wide to begin with but we'll adjust it after the play is triggered.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 65 thousand

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