New Plays, Saturday, 04/30/2005
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
We believe that the current (trading) trend in the markets is down. Yet many
stocks have reached oversold conditions. Friday's rally looks like the beginning
of a short-term oversold bounce. This is not a place where we want to add many
new bullish or bearish plays. We will wait a day or two to see where the bounce
begins to falter before listing new bearish plays.
New Long Plays
Archstone-Smith - ASN - close: 35.97 chg: +0.66 stop: 34.85
Archstone-Smith is a recognized leader in apartment investment and operations.
With a current total market capitalization of $11.7 billion, Archstone-Smith
owns and operates an irreplaceable portfolio of high-rise and garden apartment
communities concentrated in many of the most desirable neighborhoods in the
Washington, D.C. metropolitan
area, Southern California, the San Francisco Bay
area, Chicago, Boston, the New York City metropolitan area, Southeast Florida
and Seattle. The company continually upgrades the quality of its portfolio
through the selective sale of assets, using proceeds to fund investments with
even better growth prospects. Through its two brands, Archstone and Charles E.
Smith, Archstone-Smith strives to provide great apartments and great service to
its customers -- backed by unconditional
service guarantees. As of January 31,
2005, Archstone-Smith owned or had an ownership position in 235 communities,
representing 81,018 units, including units under construction. (source: company
Why We Like It:
We believe that the markets are in an intermediate bearish trend but ASN still
looks tempting as a bullish candidate due to its relative strength and recent
bullish breakout. ASN has been outperforming the broader indices and has been
resilient to the market's recent volatility. Shares of ASN appear to
have spent the last four months consolidating its late 2004 gains and building a
base between $33 and $36. Now the stock is flirting with a breakout that could
lead shares toward the December highs. ASN's bullish P&F chart currently points
to a $49 target. Our target is the $38.50-39.00 range. Our strategy is to use a
trigger over the recent highs. Our entry point will be $36.26. Until ASN trades
at this level
or above we'll sit on the sidelines. Once triggered we'll use a
stop loss at $34.85. Our time frame is four to six weeks.
Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 811 thousand
New Short Plays
today, see note.