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New Plays
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MSFT

New Long Plays

General Electric - GE - close: 37.07 chg: -0.11 stop: 34.95

Company Description:
GE is Imagination at Work - a diversified technology, media and financial services company focused on solving some of the world's toughest problems. With products and services ranging from aircraft engines, power generation, water processing and security technology to medical imaging, business and consumer financing, media content and advanced materials, GE serves customers in more than 100 countries and employs more than 300,000 people worldwide. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
We believe the market is in a new intermediate up trend following the bullish breakout last week. However, the major averages are now short-term overbought and due for a small consolidation. We want to use the coming pull back to our advantage. GE broke out over significant resistance in the $36.50 region last week but any pull back could drag shares back toward the $36 level or lower. We all know how the markets tend to overreact. While the $36.50 level "should" now be new support we're going to bet on a steeper consolidation. Our suggestion is for traders to buy a dip (or a bounce if that's your style) into the $35.50-36.00 range. GE's point & figure chart is very bullish with a $52 target. We want to target a move into the $38.50-39.00 range before GE's July earnings report. That gives us about eight weeks. We'll place our stop loss below the simple 200-dma. If for some reason GE doesn't dip lower enough we'll adjust the entry point in future updates.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/16/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 18.7 million 

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Microsoft - MSFT - close: 25.75 chg: -0.10 stop: 24.60

Company Description:
Founded in 1975, Microsoft is the worldwide leader in software, services and solutions that help people and businesses realize their full potential. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Our strategy with MSFT is an exact duplicate of the new bullish GE play. The markets appear to be in a new intermediate up trend. The major averages are short-term overbought as are shares of MSFT. We want to buy the dip. Our strategy is to buy a dip into the $25.00-25.25 range. Normally, we'd expect broken resistance at $25.50 to act as new support but the market likes to overdo it whenever it corrects. MSFT's point & figure chart is pretty bullish with a $39.00 target. We're not so aggressive. We will target a move into the $27.00-27.50 range before MSFT's late July earnings report. We'll put our stop loss at $24.60 under the two-month trend of higher lows. If for some reason MSFT doesn't dip lower enough we'll adjust the entry point in future updates.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 70.8 million 

New Short Plays

None today.

In Play Updates and Reviews

Long Play Updates

Archstone-Smith - ASN - close: 36.65 chg: -0.21 stop: 35.35 

As expected ASN pulled back and came very close to filling the gap from last week. Given the late day bounce we'd be tempted to consider new bullish positions here but traders should consider the overbought status in the major indices. If the DJIA and the NASDAQ pull back, and they will sooner rather than later, then ASN is likely to pull back with them. 

Picked on May 06 at $36.26
Change since picked: + 0.39
Earnings Date 04/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 811 thousand

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Brookfield Homes - BHS - close: 47.55 chg: -0.20 stop: 42.95 

It was another battle between the bulls and bears today as BHS traded in a narrow range under resistance near $48.00. We're not suggesting new bullish positions. If the markets pull back we expect BHS to pull back with them. We'll watch for a bounce from the $46 region. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 range.

Picked on May 05 at $45.05
Change since picked: + 2.50
Earnings Date 05/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 100 thousand

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Caremark - CMX - close: 44.06 chg: +0.59 stop: 40.95

CMX is showing some relative strength today but we're still expecting the stock to pull back when the markets correct from being overbought. No change from our previous update on 05/22/05.

Picked on May 09 at $43.30
Change since picked: + 0.76
Earnings Date 05/03/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million 

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First Bancorp - FBP - close: 40.90 chg: +0.44 stop: 38.49 

Hmmm... that's not very encouraging. FPB declares a cash dividend and a stock split this afternoon and the stock doesn't respond very much. The press release did come out late in the day so maybe FBP will see a stronger reaction tomorrow. FBP's Board of Directors announced a 14-cent cash dividend payable on June 28th, 2005 to shareholders on record as of June 15th. In addition the Board also declared a 2-for-1 stock split to be distributed on June 30th for shareholders on record as of June 15th. Maybe once this news is digested by investors we'll see FBP breakout over the $42.00 level. Our target is still the $45.00 region.

Picked on May 05 at $40.37
Change since picked: + 0.53
Earnings Date 04/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 280 thousand

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Greenhill & Co - GHL - close: 35.89 chg: -0.17 stop: 34.49 

While we are encouraged by the intraday rebound from traders buying the dip toward the $35.00 level we are starting to grow concerned by the bearish tilt in GHL's momentum oscillators. More conservative traders may want to consider taking some profits here, especially with the major stock indices this short-term overbought. Our target remains the $37-38 range.

Picked on May 09 at $34.11
Change since picked: + 1.78
Earnings Date 04/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 70 thousand

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Humana - HUM - close: 36.26 chg: -0.07 stop: 32.95

No change from our previous update on 05/22/05. We're still expecting HUM to pull back when the market indices pull back from overbought status. 

Picked on May 09 at $36.33
Change since picked: - 0.07
Earnings Date 05/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million 

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Sirius Satellite Radio - SIRI - cls: 5.66 chg: -0.01 stop: 5.19

No change from our previous updates. We still expect shares to dip toward the $5.50-5.40 range even though traders bought the dip to $5.60 this morning. In the news SIRI announces that it will hold its annual shareholder meeting on Wednesday, May 25th. 

Picked on May 22 at $ 5.65
Change since picked: + 0.01
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 40.0 million 

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Yahoo! Inc. - YHOO - close: 36.63 change: -0.17 stop: 33.95

Another upgrade for Google (GOOG) helped fuel an early rally in the Internet sector but both GOOG and the Internet group experienced some profit taking before the day was out. Shares of YHOO traded in a relatively narrow range despite positive analyst comments and new coverage with a "buy" rating. The NASDAQ Composite is now up eight days in a row. This is an unsustainable pace and traders should expect a multi-day consolidation before the NASDAQ can continue higher. We'll watch for YHOO to trade toward the $35.00 level. 

Picked on May 18 at $36.05
Change since picked: + 0.58
Earnings Date 04/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 20.9 million 

Short Play Updates

A.S.V.Inc. - ASVI - close: 35.04 change: -0.09 stop: 35.31

Since we remain unopened and on the sidelines in ASVI we're not quite ready to give up just yet. Our strategy is to short the stock if shares hit our entry point of $33.99, under short-term support at the $34.00 level. 

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 122 thousand

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Ball Corp - BLL - close: 37.95 chg: +0.10 stop: 39.05 

No change from our previous update on 05/23/05.

Picked on May 05 at $38.98
Change since picked: - 1.03
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 611 thousand

Closed Long Plays

None

Closed Short Plays

Biomet - BMET - close: 38.81 chg: -0.13 stop: 39.01 

We've been expecting it for a couple of days now. BMET finally traded intraday over the $39.00 level and hit our stop loss at $39.01 closing our play. 

Picked on May 10 at $37.45
Change since picked: + 1.36
Earnings Date 03/22/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million 

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Mylan Labs - MYL - close: 16.41 change: +0.28 stop: 16.51

After trading under resistance at $16.50 for most of the session MYL finally broke through this afternoon and hit our stop loss at $16.51. The stock is now up five days in a row and starting to look short-term overbought.

Picked on May 16 at $15.85
Change since picked: + 0.56
Earnings Date 05/12/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

Premier Investor New Play Archives