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New Plays
Long Plays
Short Plays
GBX None
MVL  
NCX  

New Long Plays

Greenbrier Co - GBX - close: 28.67 change: +0.95 stop: 25.49

Company Description:
The Greenbrier Companies headquartered in Lake Oswego, OR is a leading supplier of transportation equipment and services to the railroad industry. Greenbrier builds new railroad freight cars in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico and repairs and refurbishes freight cars or wheels at 15 locations across North America, with growing supply chain relationships in Asia. Greenbrier builds new railroad freight cars and refurbishes freight cars for the European market through both its operations in Poland and various subcontractor facilities throughout Europe. Greenbrier owns approximately 10,000 railcars, and performs management services for approximately 125,000 railcars in its leasing and services unit. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
After several days of consolidating sideways it looks like the Dow Transportation index is poised to breakout to new relative highs. That makes GBX's recent bounce from support look pretty attractive. Actually looking more closely at the daily chart of GBX one can see that the stock is rebounding from the bottom of a very wide sideways channel with support near $25.50 and resistance near $37.00. The recent technical breakout over its simple and exponential 200-dma's is another reason bulls could be drawn to shares of GBX. While we are willing to go long the stock at current levels, we much rather buy a dip back into the 27.50-26.50 region. If you're a patient trader then consider waiting for a dip. There is bound to be some round-number resistance near the $30.00 mark but we're targeting a move into the $32.50-33.00 region.

Picked on June 01 at $28.67
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 06/29/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 227 thousand

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Marvel Enterprises - MVL - close: 21.86 change: +0.59 stop: 20.45

Company Description:
With a library of over 5,000 characters, Marvel Enterprises, Inc. is one of the world's most prominent character-based entertainment companies. Marvel's operations are focused in three areas: licensing and entertainment (Marvel Studios), comic book publishing and toys. Marvel facilitates the creation of entertainment projects, including feature films, DVD/home video, video games and television programming based on its characters and also licenses its characters for use in a wide range of consumer products and services including apparel, collectibles, snack foods and promotions. Marvel's characters and plot lines are created by its publishing segment that continues to expand its leadership position in the U.S. and worldwide while also serving as an invaluable source of intellectual property. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
MVL has been showing some pretty good relative strength lately. The stock broke out to new one-year highs several days ago and has spent the last few days consolidating sideways between $21 and $22. Now shares look poised to breakout again and make a run for its all-time highs near $24.00. We think this is a tempting time to consider going long the stock with MVL's Fantastic Four movie set to open on July 8th. While Fantastic Four isn't expected to be the money-making titan that Spiderman and Spiderman 2 were it's still a summer-time blockbuster that could spark a pre-movie opening rally in shares of MVL. Technically we also like the Point & Figure chart, which shows a triple-top breakout buy signal with a $32.50 target. We're only targeting a five-week run into the $24.00-25.00 range. We'll use a stop loss under the May 25th low but more aggressive traders may want to put their stop under the $20.00 mark, which should be round-number support. Our stop loss is $20.45. More conservative traders may also want to consider waiting for MVL to breakout over the $22.00 level.

Picked on June 01 at $21.86
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 911 thousand

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Nova Chemicals - NCX - close: 33.03 change: +1.12 stop: 29.99

Company Description:
NOVA Chemicals produces commodity plastics and chemicals that are essential to everyday life. Our employees develop and manufacture materials for customers worldwide who produce consumer, industrial and packaging products. We work with a commitment to Responsible Care to ensure effective health, safety, security and environmental stewardship. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
We like shares of this Canadian chemical maker because the stock looks very oversold and way overdue for a rebound. The action in the last couple of weeks looks like NCX has produced a bottom and NCX has broken its three-month trend of lower highs. We are willing to go long the stock at current levels but readers can choose to buy a move past $33.50 to confirm the new up trend or consider buying a dip back toward the $32.00 level. Our target is the exponential 200-dma near the $38.00 level. We are going to start the play with a wide stop loss but once NCX starts to climb we'll quickly adjust the stop loss higher.

Picked on June 01 at $33.03
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/20/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 660 thousand
 

New Short Plays

None today.
 

In Play Updates and Reviews

Long Play Updates

Archstone-Smith - ASN - close: 37.10 chg: +0.28 stop: 35.35

The situation with ASN definitely seems to be improving. Technical oscillators look positive again and this might prove to be another bullish entry point. Our target remains the $38.50-39.00 range.

Picked on May 06 at $36.26
Change since picked: + 0.83
Earnings Date 04/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 811 thousand

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Canon - CAJ - close: 54.82 change: +0.57 stop: 52.85

Today's rebound in shares of CAJ was encouraged as traders stepped in to buy the dip toward the $54 region. We would use today's bounce as a new bullish entry point. Our target is the $58.00-59.00 range.

Picked on May 29 at $55.24
Change since picked: - 0.42
Earnings Date 04/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 157 thousand

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Caremark - CMX - close: 44.13 chg: -0.53 stop: 40.95

No change from our previous update on 05/29/05.

Picked on May 09 at $43.30
Change since picked: + 0.83
Earnings Date 05/03/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million

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General Electric - GE - close: 36.93 chg: +0.45 stop: 34.95

Uh-oh! Today's rebound in GE could be a problem for our play. Yesterday's decline and today's rebound almost looks like a tweezer type bottom, which is normally seen as a bullish reversal signal. The market's show of strength today is a definite monkey wrench in our plan to buy the big dip. We're not going to change our strategy just yet. Currently our plan is to go long shares of GE on a dip into the $36.00-35.50 range but more aggressive traders may want to consider bullish positions here.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/16/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 18.7 million

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Greenhill & Co - GHL - close: 35.87 chg: +0.19 stop: 34.99

There is no change in our strategy. GHL bounced from the $35.00 level again. Hopefully this time the rebound can push into our target range of $37.00-38.00.

Picked on May 09 at $34.11
Change since picked: + 1.76
Earnings Date 04/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 70 thousand

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Humana - HUM - close: 37.22 chg: +0.86 stop: 32.95

We may have to consider the possibility that HUM will not dip toward support near the $35.00 level. Traders may want to consider bullish positions with today's breakout over the $37 level.

Picked on May 09 at $36.33
Change since picked: + 0.89
Earnings Date 05/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Microsoft - MSFT - close: 25.81 chg: +0.01 stop: 24.60

No change from our previous update on 05/29/05. Our entry point to go long the stock is for MSFT to pull back into the $25.25-25.00 range.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 70.8 million

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Ship Fincl Intl - SFL - close: 19.65 change: +0.31 stop: 18.19

SFL experienced some volatility today. The stock gapped lower after the Wall Street Journal published comments about short traders expecting the oil tanker stocks to continue trading lower this spring/summer. Fortunately, the weakness reversed after crude oil prices surged to $54 a barrel and breaking out over its simple 50-dma. The next challenge for SLF is the May 6th highs near $19.80.

Picked on May 31 at $19.34
Change since picked: + 0.31
Earnings Date 05/31/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 344 thousand

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Sirius Satellite Radio - SIRI - cls: 5.93 chg: -0.08 stop: 5.45*new*

SIRI's lack of participation in today's market rally may be suggesting it's time to start looking for a dip. We would watch for a dip toward the simple 10-dma near $5.70. A bounce from $5.70 could be used as a new bullish entry point. We are going to raise our stop loss to $5.45. Our target is the $6.50-6.75 range.

Picked on May 22 at $ 5.65
Change since picked: + 0.28
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 40.0 million

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Yahoo! Inc. - YHOO - close: 38.42 change: +1.22 stop: 35.99*new*

It was another strong day for Internet stocks and this time YHOO helped lead the way. Shares of YHOO surged 3.27 percent on above average volume to come within 10 cents of our target at the $39.00 level. This close to our target we're certainly not suggesting new bullish positions. However, we are raising our stop loss to $35.99.

Picked on May 18 at $36.05
Change since picked: + 2.37
Earnings Date 04/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 20.9 million
 

Short Play Updates

Ball Corp - BLL - close: 37.58 chg: +0.03 stop: 38.15*new*

Yesterday's failed rally appears to have been short-circuited by today's market rally. We remain bearish but are wary about initiating new short positions with the market showing strength. We are going to tighten our stop loss to $38.15, above BLL's 21-dma and the recent highs for the past two weeks.

Picked on May 05 at $38.98
Change since picked: - 1.34
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 611 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Brookfield Homes - BHS - close: 45.35 chg: -0.51 stop: 43.49

Wow! It was a very volatile day for shares of BHS. It looks like last night's HOV earnings warning for the third quarter impacted investors in BHS. Shares of BHS gapped a bit lower and then quickly dipped to $43.25 before rebounding. Volume was very heavy at about seven times the norm. We were stopped out at $43.49. It is interesting to see that shares of HOV were not as volatile as BHS and the home sector as a group remains strong. We'll be sure to keep our eyes on the industry for future bullish candidates.

Picked on May 05 at $45.05
Change since picked: + 0.30
Earnings Date 05/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 100 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

Premier Investor New Play Archives