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New Short Plays

Triad Hosp. - TRI - close: 49.20 chg: -1.20 stop: 52.31

Company Description:
Triad, through its affiliates, owns and manages hospitals and ambulatory surgery centers in small cities and selected larger urban markets. The Company currently operates 52 hospitals and 9 ambulatory surgery centers in 15 states with approximately 8,640 licensed beds. In addition, through its QHR subsidiary, the Company provides hospital management, consulting and advisory services to more than 180 independent community hospitals and health systems throughout the United States. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
After a multi-month climb from the $30s to its high near $56 shares of TRI are finally seeing some profit taking. The company report earnings today. TRI beat analysts' estimates and issued positive guidance going forward and investors still "sold the news". The reaction was a massive bearish engulfing candlestick pattern and a technical breakdown below round-number support at the $50.00 mark and its 100-dma all on big volume. We are going to suggest shorts here at current levels with a target in the $45.50-45.00 range. Our stop loss will be $52.31 above the simple 50-dma.

Picked on July 25 at $49.20
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/25/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 967 thousand


Viacom - VIA.B - close: 32.45 chg: -0.43 stop: 33.51

Company Description:
Viacom is a leading global media company, with preeminent positions in broadcast and cable television, radio, outdoor advertising, and online. With programming that appeals to audiences in every demographic category across virtually all media, the company is a leader in the creation, promotion, and distribution of entertainment, news, sports, music, and comedy. Viacom's well-known brands include CBS, MTV, Nickelodeon, Nick at Nite, VH1, BET, Paramount Pictures, Infinity Broadcasting, Viacom Outdoor, UPN, TV Land, Comedy Central, CMT: Country Music Television, King World, Spike TV, Showtime, Paramount Parks, and Simon & Schuster. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
VIA has been drifting lower under a steady stream of lower highs. The most recent failed rally (today) looks like another entry point for traders to short the stock. The Point & Figure chart for Viacom shows a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $25 price target. Looking at the charts we see some support near $32.00 and the next level of support beyond that is the $30.00 level. We are going to suggest shorts with a target in the $30.25-30.00 range. This is a higher-risk play because our time frame is brief. Viacom is due to report earnings on August 4th and we do not want to hold over the report. We may not reach our target in time but it could still be a profitable play for traders, especially if the broader market averages turn lower.

Picked on July 25 at $32.45
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/04/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.9 million

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