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Phazar Corp - ANTP - close: 15.60 chg: -1.07 stop: 17.01

Company Description:
PHAZAR CORP is a publicly owned company that operates as a holding company with Antenna Products Corporation and Phazar Antenna Corp. as wholly owned subsidiaries. Antenna Products Corporation is an operating subsidiary that designs, manufactures, and markets antenna systems, towers, and communication accessories worldwide. The United States government, military and civil agencies, and prime contractors represent Antenna Products Corporation's principal customers. Phazar Antenna Corp. is a separate legal entity that currently operates as a small division of Antenna Products Corporation. The Company's operations are performed in Texas for customers throughout the country. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
ANTP is an aggressive, speculative technical breakdown play. We've been watching the stock meander sideways above support at the $16.00 level for weeks now. The rally in mid-September quickly failed at its descending 50-dma. Today's market sell-off has helped push shares of ANTP below support at the $16.00 mark. We label this an aggressive/speculative play because ANTP does not trade a lot of volume, it can be very volatile, it has a high degree of short interest at 20% of its 2.2 million shares outstanding, and it still has additional support near the $15.00 level. Please read that again. There are plenty of reasons to not take this entry point but the breakdown below support and bearish signals on its MACD, RSI and stochastics all point lower. Its Point & Figure chart has a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal that points to a $10.50 target. We are going to use a wide stop loss to give ANTP room to maneuver even though the $16.00 level should now act as overhead resistance. Our target is going to be the $12.50-12.00 range. More aggressive traders can target the $10.00 level, which is the next level of significant support.

Picked on October 04 at $15.60
Change since picked: - 0.00
Earnings Date 08/11/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 150 thousand


Toll Brothers - TOL - close: 41.40 chg: -2.25 stop: 44.55

Company Description:
Toll Brothers, Inc. is the nation's leading builder of luxury homes. The Company began business in 1967 and became a public company in 1986. The Company serves move-up, empty-nester, active-adult and second-home home buyers and operates in 20 states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
The homebuilding sector was one of the day's worst performers. The DJUSHB home construction index lost more than four percent. Weighing on the homebuilders were comments from the fed governors today concerning the Federal Reverse's worry over inflation. If the FOMC is worried about inflation then we can expect more rate hikes. Normally rate hikes push mortgage rates higher and that slows down the sale of houses. The August new home sales report showed a significant decline in sales and investors are worried that this time the homebuilders really are going to see a slow down. It didn't help that there was renewed focus today on the high level of insider selling for many executives in the publicly traded homebuilders. We like TOL as a bearish momentum and technical play. The stock is already in a trend of lower highs and has already broken down below its simple 200-dma. The Point & Figure chart is bearish and points to a $35 target. Plus, the daily chart appears to be painting a bear-flag pattern. We want to see some follow through on today's sell-off. We're going to suggest a trigger under the September low at $40.95. If TOL trades at or below $40.95 we'd suggest shorts. Normally we'd expect the $40 level to act as round-number, psychological support but the overall bearish trend will probably prevail. Our target is the April 2005 lows near $36.00. We'll target a move into the $36.50-36.00 range.

Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/25/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.6 million

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