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New Long Plays

ATP Oil & Gas - ATPG - close: 35.16 chg: +2.01 stop: 31.99.

Company Description:
ATP Oil & Gas is focused on development and production of natural gas and oil in the Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
It looks like the consolidation in oil stocks may be ending. Shares of ATPG rallied strongly on Wednesday following its earnings report. Today the rally continued fueled by a strong session for crude oil. Today's gain in ATPG is also a significant breakout over resistance at the $34.00 level. The rising volume on the rally is also a bullish sign. The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a $50.00 price target. We normally try not to chase a move greater than five percent but we remain bullish on the oil stocks longer-term. We would suggest positions here with ATPG over $35.00 but our preferred entry point would be to wait for a pull back toward the $34.00 region (maybe 34.25-34.50). Broken resistance at $34.00 should now act as new support. It can take patience to wait for a dip and there is a risk that ATPG will not pull back any time soon. We will aim for a move into the $39.50-40.00 range. Our time frame is eight to ten weeks. We do have a wide stop but will adjust it higher once ATPG confirms the breakout.

Picked on November 03 at $35.16
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/01/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 289 thousand

New Short Plays

Phazar - ANTP - close: 13.32 change: -0.98 stop: 15.01

Company Description:
PHAZAR CORP is a publicly owned company that operates as a holding company with Antenna Products Corporation and Phazar Antenna Corp. as wholly owned subsidiaries. Antenna Products Corporation is an operating subsidiary that designs, manufactures, and markets antenna systems, towers, and communication accessories worldwide. The United States government, military and civil agencies, and prime contractors represent Antenna Products Corporation's principal customers. Phazar Antenna Corp. is a separate legal entity that currently operates as a small division of Antenna Products Corporation. The Company's operations are performed in Texas for customers throughout the country. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
We are going to try our hand at another play in ANTP. We've successfully played the stock in the past but shares remain volatile and we only suggest aggressive players consider shorting it. The stock has been sinking under a multi-month trend of lower highs. The breakdown under support at the $15.00 level back in October was very significant. There was a quick rally higher in the last week of October but broken support near $15.00 held as new overhead resistance. The recent rally is beginning to fade with two failed attempts to breakout over the $15 level and its simple 50-dma. There is significant risk here. The most recent data put short-interest in ANTP at close to 21% of its 2.2 million shares outstanding. The rally in late October was probably a short-squeeze. We are going to suggest shorts with the stock under $14.00 but we'll use a wide stop at $15.01 since shares can be volatile. Our eight-week target is the $10.20-10.00 range.

Picked on November 03 at $13.32
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/10/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 182 thousand

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