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Nautilus - NLS - close: 18.81 change: +0.53 stop: 17.89

Company Description:
Headquartered in Vancouver, Wash., Nautilus, Inc. is a pure fitness company that provides tools and education necessary to help people achieve a fit and healthy lifestyle. With a brand portfolio that includes Nautilus, Bowflex, SchwinnFitness, StairMaster, Trimline and Pearl iZUMi, Nautilus manufactures and markets a complete line of innovative health and fitness products through direct, commercial, retail, specialty and international channels. The Company was formed in 1986 and had sales of $524 million in 2004. It has 1,400 employees and operations in Washington, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, Illinois, Virginia, Canada, Switzerland, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, China, and other locations around the world. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
After a painful five-month decline that almost cut the stock in half we believe that NLS has bottomed or at least produced a short-term bottom. NLS has built a base in the $17-18 range over the last month and late November early December saw the stock breakout over resistance. Now after pulling back to retest broken resistance as new support shares of NLS are bouncing again from the $18 level. We are going to suggest longs with NLS above the $18.50 level. More conservative traders may want to wait for some confirmation and use a move over $19.00 as a new entry point. We've tried to limit our risk with a tight stop under Thursday's low. We are going to target a rally to $21.50, which is just under a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its five-month decline. We will not hold over the February earnings report.

Picked on December 11 at $18.81
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 598 thousand
 

New Short Plays

None
 

In Play Updates and Reviews

Long Play Updates

ANSYS Inc. - ANSS - close: 43.23 change: +1.58 stop: 40.89

It's alive! ANSS turned in a big gain on Friday with a 3.79% rally. This puts the stock right back where we started with shares testing resistance near the $44.00 level. The big picture for ANSS is bullish and its P&F chart points to a $60 target. We are suggesting a trigger at $44.05 to open the play. If triggered we'll target a move into the $49-50 range by the end of January.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 153 thousand

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Anglogold - AU - close: 46.70 change: -0.45 stop: 41.95

Gold and gold stocks have been hot commodities this past week. The metal hit new 24-year highs above $500 an ounce. Meanwhile shares of AU broke out over resistance near $44 to hit new one-year highs. The stock experienced some profit taking on Friday but was rebounding higher on rising volume again by late afternoon. We would hate to chase it here but there's no guarantee we'll see another dip any time soon. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 range.

Picked on December 06 at $44.81
Change since picked: + 1.89
Earnings Date 01/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 904 thousand

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Burlington Coat - BCF - close: 41.31 chg: -0.15 stop: 38.90

Unfortunately the upward momentum in BCF is slowing. Hopefully the onset of winter might spark some new interest in the stock with expectations that the weather will improve the company's sales. The trend is still up so we're going to keep the play active but we hesitate to suggest new positions here. Our year-end target is the $43.50 level.

Picked on October 24 at $38.90
Change since picked: + 2.41
Earnings Date 01/04/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 165 thousand

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CE Frankline Ltd - CFK - cls: 13.69 chg: -0.70 stop: 11.98

Red alert! Energy stocks, specifically oil stocks, hit some profit taking on Friday after a very strong week. CFK definitely hit some profit taking with a 4.8% decline. Coincidentally shares hit a high of $14.65 on Friday morning putting the stock within 10-cents of our $14.75-15.00 target. We're issuing a red alert because Friday's session produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, which is normally translated as a one-day bearish reversal. Conservative traders should strongly consider exiting here for a gain. We're our stop loss at breakeven we're going to speculate that any pull back will be short lived. We are not suggesting new positions.

Picked on November 16 at $11.98
Change since picked: + 1.71
Earnings Date 10/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 150 thousand

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CenturyTel Inc. - CTL - close: 33.05 change: +0.69 stop: 32.39

CTL has suddenly reawakened as well. The stock looked on the verge of collapsing with Thursday's decline. Shares rebounded all the way back toward resistance at the exponential 200-dma near $33.35. Volume came in almost double the average. We're going to keep the stock as a bullish candidate. Our strategy is to go long on a breakout over resistance at the 200-dma and the $33.50 level. Our trigger to buy the stock is at $33.55. If triggered we'll target a run to $36.00 before its January earnings report. The Point & Figure chart points to a $49 target.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 855 thousand

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D.R.Horton - DHI - close: 35.44 chg: -0.37 stop: 33.75

More conservative traders may want to think about abandoning DHI as a bullish candidate. The upward momentum in both DHI and the DJUSHB home construction index has stalled and they both show a MACD sell signal. We are going to keep DHI on the play list since the stock appears to be consolidation in a bull-flag like pattern and Friday's low produced a bounce off the $35.00 level . We are not suggesting new plays. We'd wait for a move over $36.50 before considering new longs. Our target for DHI is the $39.75-40.00 range.

Picked on November 21 at $35.85
Change since picked: - 0.41
Earnings Date 11/16/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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Forest Oil - FST - close: 48.20 change: -0.58 stop: 44.49 *new*

FST, like most of the oil stocks, was hit with some profit taking on Friday after a strong week. If you're looking for a new bullish entry point we'd probably watch for a dip back toward the $47.50 region. We're going to raise our stop loss to $44.49. Our target is the $52.50-53.00 range. We do not want to hold over FST's February earnings report.

Picked on December 02 at $47.01
Change since picked: + 1.19
Earnings Date 02/09/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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Corning Inc. - GLW - close: 21.16 chg: +0.04 stop: 19.99

GLW continues to consolidate sideways near the $21.00 level. We are not suggesting new positions. We are going to raise our stop loss to $20.35. Our target is the $21.90-22.00 range.

Picked on November 13 at $20.11
Change since picked: + 1.05
Earnings Date 01/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 11.8 million

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Grant Prideco - GRP - close: 45.60 chg: -0.10 stop: 39.49

Wow! We're impressed. Most of the oil stocks were hit with profit taking on Friday but GRP managed to stave off the profit taking to just 10 cents. The stock remains overbought and we're not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders may want to seriously consider exiting right here for a gain. Our target is the $46.00-47.00 range.

Picked on December 02 at $41.80
Change since picked: + 3.80
Earnings Date 01/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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K-Swiss - KSWS - close: 33.23 chg: +0.46 stop: 31.45 *new*

Good news. KSWS has finally broken out above its October highs after weeks of consolidation. We are going to tighten our stops to $31.45. Our target is the $34.85-35.00 range.

Picked on November 29 at $32.09
Change since picked: + 1.14
Earnings Date 01/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 256 thousand

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Levitt - LEV - close: 22.98 chg: +0.24 stop: 20.95

LEV is still showing relative strength and added another one-percent on Friday putting the stock right under resistance at the $23.00 level. The trend of higher lows is bullish and a breakout from here would probably lead to a quick rally toward $24. Technically the bulls biggest concern is probably the 100-dma at 23.58. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $24.90-25.00 range. We do not want to hold over the February earnings report.

Picked on December 01 at $22.27
Change since picked: + 0.71
Earnings Date 02/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 161 thousand

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VCA Antech - WOOF - close: 28.06 chg: +0.28 stop: 25.90

WOOF is still hanging in there and Friday's gain appears to have broken the stock's two-week trend of lower highs. Short-term technical oscillators have turned bullish again. We would not suggest new positions here but more aggressive players might consider it. Our target is the $29.90-30.00 range.

Picked on November 09 at $26.74
Change since picked: + 1.32
Earnings Date 01/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 436 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

NeuroMetrix - NURO - close: 30.36 chg: -0.29 stop: 34.01

NURO has failed to produce any follow through on Wednesday's oversold bounce. Yet neither is it continuing to sink. The last couple of sessions NURO has been consolidating north of the $30.00 mark. The stock will test its simple 10-dma soon and it could spark the next leg down. Otherwise we may have to look for NURO to test previous support, now new resistance at the 50-dma near $33.25. Our target is a decline into the $22.75-22.00 range above its simple 200-dma. We do not want to hold over the late January earnings report.

Picked on December 06 at $29.59
Change since picked: + 0.77
Earnings Date 01/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 210 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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