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New Plays
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  FDO
  FLEX

New Long Plays

None today.
 

New Short Plays

Cendant Corp. - CD - close: 16.19 change: 0.45 stop: 17.01

Company Description:
New York City-based Cendant Corporation provides travel and residential real estate services to businesses and consumers in more than 100 countries. Cendant Hotel Group, based in Parsippany, N.J., is one of the world's largest lodging companies with 6,344 hotels representing 532,284 rooms on five continents under the Wyndham, Super 8, Days Inn, Ramada, Travelodge, Howard Johnson, Knights Inn, Wingate Inn and AmeriHost Inn brands. All hotels are individually owned and operated under franchise agreements with Cendant subsidiaries. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
The bears have been winning the fight in CD for quite a while now. We like it as a new short candidate given Friday's breakdown under support near $16.40 on above average volume. Naturally technical oscillators are bearish. The Point & Figure chart is very bearish with a $10.00 price target. We are going to suggest shorts here with CD under $16.40. Our target is the $14.25-14.00 range. Our time frame is pretty quick. CD is due to report earnings on February 13th and we do not want to hold over the report.

Picked on February 05 at $16.19
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/13/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.1 million

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Family Dollar Store - FDO - cls: 23.74 change: -0.40 stop: 24.51

Company Description:
With more than 5,900 stores in a 44-state area ranging as far northwest as Idaho, northeast to Maine, southeast to Florida, and southwest to Arizona, Family Dollar is one of the fastest growing discount store chains in the United States. Family Dollar has provided value-conscious consumers with competitive prices at neighborhood stores for more than forty-six years. Offering a consistent selection of name-brand and good quality merchandise in an attractive and convenient shopping environment, the Company is focused on continuing to meet the needs of shoppers looking for excellent value. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
Positive January same-store sales news managed to produce a one-day bounce that has already failed in shares of FDO. The stock has been slowly sliding lower for weeks and looks poised to breakdown under major support. Currently FDO is testing support at its simple 200-dma and its four-month trendline (see chart). A breakdown under $23.50 could herald a new leg lower. The P&F chart is already very bearish with a $4.00 price target. We are going to suggest a trigger to short FDO at $23.45. If triggered we'll target a decline into the $20.50-20.00 range.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/22/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

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Flextronics - FLEX - close: 10.02 change: -0.35 stop: 10.62

Company Description:
Headquartered in Singapore (Singapore Reg. No. 199002645H), Flextronics is a leading Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) provider focused on delivering complete design, engineering and manufacturing services to aerospace, automotive, computing, consumer digital, industrial, infrastructure, medical and mobile OEMs. With fiscal year 2005 revenues of USD$15.9 billion, Flextronics helps customers design, build, ship, and service electronics products through a network of facilities in over 30 countries on five continents. This global presence provides design and engineering solutions that are combined with core electronics manufacturing and logistics services, and vertically integrated with components technologies, to optimize customer operations by lowering costs and reducing time to market. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
FLEX managed to beat estimates with its latest earnings report on January 31st. The post-report rally produced a nice, big bullish engulfing candlestick pattern or bullish reversal pattern. Unfortunately for the bulls there was no follow through. Instead the stock is sinking lower again and looks poised to retest the October lows. We are going to suggest shorts with FLEX under $10.25 but more conservative traders may want to wait for FLEX to trade under $10.00 again before initiating positions. Our target is the $9.05-9.00 range.

Picked on February 05 at $10.02
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/31/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.0 million
 

In Play Updates and Reviews

Long Play Updates

Argonaut Group - AGII - close: 34.50 chg: -0.37 stop: 33.99*new*

We have two days left. AGII is due to report earnings after the closing bell on Tuesday. We do not want to hold over the report so we plan to exit on Tuesday afternoon near the close. Thus far AGII has maintained its bullish trend but the major averages look vulnerable to more profit taking. Conservative traders might just want to exit early right here to minimize any losses. We're inching our stop loss higher to $33.99. Our short-term target is 38.00-38.50.

Picked on January 29 at $35.20
Change since picked: - 0.70
Earnings Date 02/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 189 thousand

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Alliance Res. - ARLP - close: 39.63 chg: +0.06 stop: 37.49

Shares of coal-producer ARLP continue to show relative strength but the stock remains under resistance at the $40.00 level and its 200-dma. We are suggesting a trigger to catch a breakout over this resistance. Our trigger to go long is at $40.05. If triggered we will target a rally into the $44.00-45.00 range. Our time frame is eight to tend weeks.

Picked on February x at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 112 thousand

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CEC Entertainment - CEC - cls: 36.78 chg: -0.12 stop: 35.18

CEC is struggling to build on its recent bullish breakout. We expected the dip back to the 200-dma and suggested that readers initiate new long positions on the pull back. We suspect that CEC's weakness may be more market related. The stock dipped again on Friday, this time under its 200-dma, but quickly rebounded and was moving higher into the closing bell. We remain bullish on the stock but would hesitate to initiate new plays if the major averages are declining next week. Our target is the $39.85-40.00 range.

Picked on February 1 at $37.61
Change since picked: - 0.83
Earnings Date 03/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 226 thousand

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Helen of Troy - HELE - close: 19.44 chg: -0.05 stop: 18.49

HELE appears to be holding up relative well considering the market weakness the past couple of days. We would watch for a dip and a bounce from the $19.00 level as the next bullish entry point. The simple 10-dma, currently near 19.08, should bolster the 19.00 level as support. Our target is the $22.00-22.50 range.

Picked on January 25 at $19.04
Change since picked: + 0.40
Earnings Date 01/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 285 thousand

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Mens Wearhouse - MW - close: 32.29 change: -0.63 stop: 31.85

We came very close to deciding on an early exit with MW. The stock has almost completely erased its late January rally. Technical indicators are turning bearish. The only reason we're keeping MW on the list is because shares still have a rising trendline of support (see chart) that is has not violated yet. We are not suggesting new plays but a bounce from the $32.00 level would look like a new entry point. More conservative traders may want to exit now anyway.

Picked on January 25 at $32.62
Change since picked: - 0.33
Earnings Date 02/15/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 625 thousand

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Nordic Am. Tankers - NAT - cls: 32.49 chg: +0.84 stop: 31.56*new*

NAT displayed some relative strength on Friday with a 2.65% gain and a bounce from its rising 10-dma. More conservative traders may just want to exit right here. NAT is due to report earnings on Tuesday morning. We plan to avoid the earnings report by exiting on Monday afternoon near the closing bell. We are raising our stop loss to breakeven at $31.56.

Picked on January 25 at $31.56
Change since picked: + 0.93
Earnings Date 02/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 191 thousand

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Patterson-UTI - PTEN - close: 35.71 chg: -0.54 stop: 34.95 *new*

We strongly considered exiting PTEN this weekend. The oil sector is looking vulnerable to more selling after three days of profit taking. The technicals on PTEN have turned bearish. The only reason we're keeping PTEN on the list is because shares have not yet violated support at the $35.00 level. We are inching up our stop loss to $34.95. We are not suggesting new plays. More conservative traders should consider exiting early right here to minimize losses.

Picked on January 17 at $36.85
Change since picked: - 1.14
Earnings Date 03/16/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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RC2 Corp. - RCRC - close: 35.60 chg: +0.75 stop: 34.49

RCRC surprised us on Friday with its relative strength. The stock rebounded strongly from its lows and was still climbing into the weekend. We remain on the sidelines with a trigger to go long over resistance at $36.00 and its 200-dma. Our trigger is $36.05. If triggered we'll target a rally into the $39.00-40.00 range but we will plan to exit ahead of its February earnings report.

Picked on February x at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/14/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 114 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Nat.Res.Ptnrs - NRP - close: 53.75 change: +0.74 stop: 56.01

Uh-oh! We need to be careful here. NRP traded lower and then sideways for most of the session on Friday. Then without warning there was a surge in volume and shares jolted higher right in the last few minutes of trading without any news. The overall trend remains bearish but NRP could easily bounce back to the 50-dma or the $55 level. We would wait and watch to see where this bounces fails before initiating new bearish positions. Our target is the $48.00-47.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report.

Picked on February 02 at $53.01
Change since picked: + 0.74
Earnings Date 02/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 79 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

Premier Investor New Play Archives