Option Investor
New Plays
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
New Plays
Long Plays
Short Plays
None TIF

New Long Plays

None today.
 

New Short Plays

Tiffany & Co. - TIF - close: 35.11 chg: -1.03 stop: 36.25

Company Description:
Tiffany & Co. operates jewelry and specialty retail stores and manufactures products through its subsidiary corporations. Its principal subsidiary is Tiffany and Company. The Company operates TIFFANY & CO. retail stores and boutiques in the Americas, Asia-Pacific and Europe and engages in direct selling through Internet, catalog and business gift operations. Other operations include consolidated results from ventures operated under trademarks or trade names other than TIFFANY & CO. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
TIF's latest earnings report was near the end of March. The company beat the earnings estimate but revenues came in light and shares have proceeded to fall further. Over the last three months the stock has produced a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. Today's breakdown below the neckline (support) could have been sparked by the sell-off in shares of luxury leather goods producer Coach (COH). While COH and TIF peddle different merchandise investors might be worried that the high-price of gasoline will curb consumer spending and the first things to go will probably be luxury items. The technical picture for TIF looks bearish with sell signals in the stochastics, RSI and the P&F chart, which points to a $30 target. Volume on today's breakdown was more than double the daily average. We are going to suggest shorting TIF right here under $36.00. More conservative traders may want to strongly consider waiting for a breakdown below the $35.00 level. Our target is going to be the $32.25-31.75 range.

Picked on April 25 at $35.11
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/28/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million
 

In Play Updates and Reviews

Long Play Updates

Atlas America - ATLS - close: 51.01 chg: -0.98 stop: 47.99*new*

Whoa! If Monday's bearish engulfing candlestick wasn't bad enough shares of ATLS produced a larger one today. This is another warning sign for the bulls. It's true that ATLS has not yet broken support (old resistance) at the $50.00 mark but considering the recent trading in the stock and the weakness in the markets the situation isn't looking very strong. We strongly considered exiting early right here and more conservative traders may want to give it some more thought. We will adjust the stop loss higher to $47.99. Bear in mind that we do not want to hold over the early May earnings report so we're not suggesting new plays.

Picked on April 19 at $51.25
Change since picked: - 0.24
Earnings Date 05/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 163 thousand

---

Autoliv - ALV - close: 54.73 chg: +0.01 stop: 53.99

ALV is struggling to rebound from support at its rising 50-dma. The stock did rebound higher this morning but quickly ran out of steam and pulled back to support again. Please note that we're running out of time on the play and conservative traders may want to exit early right here! The only earnings date we have for ALV is April 27th but that has not been confirmed yet. We do not want to hold over the announcement so we plan to exit tomorrow near the closing bell.

Picked on April 19 at $56.40
Change since picked: - 1.67
Earnings Date 04/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 529 thousand

---

Baidu.com - BIDU - close: 59.13 chg: -0.92 stop: 57.95*new*

Our aggressive bullish play in BIDU is not panning out. A hefty pull back in shares of GOOG and a sell-off in shares of CNET undermined any strength for the Internet stocks. BIDU lost 1.5% and closed under $60 again. We are suggesting that more conservative traders consider an early exit in BIDU right here or at least adjust their stops toward Monday's lows. We're moving our stop loss to $57.95. We do not want to hold over the May 9th earnings report.

Picked on April 20 at $62.55
Change since picked: - 3.42
Earnings Date 05/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 877 thousand

---

Digital Realty - DLR - close: 28.70 chg: -0.18 stop: 27.95*new*

The good news today in DLR is that traders bought the dip near $28.00. The bad news is that the technical picture is getting worse. We are not suggesting new bullish plays. Please note we're adjusting the stop loss to $27.95. More aggressive traders may want to leave their stop under longer-term support at the rising 50-dma (27.42). Our target is the $29.75-30.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report.

Picked on March 29 at $28.04
Change since picked: + 0.66
Earnings Date 05/06/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 180 thousand

---

Liberty Global - LBTYA - close: 20.38 chg: -0.06 stop: 19.95

We strongly considered pulling the plug today with LBYTA. The stock failed to see any follow through on yesterday's bounce at the 50-dma. For the most part cable-related stocks were trending higher today but LBYTA continues to languish. We're not suggesting new positions at this time and more conservative traders may just want to exit right here or place their stop loss under the 50-dma near 20.15.

Picked on April 02 at $20.47
Change since picked: - 0.09
Earnings Date 05/08/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million

---

Phillips Van-Heusen - PVH - cls: 38.16 chg: -0.23 stop: 36.39

PVH dipped under short-term support at $38.00 on an intraday basis but shares were on the rebound by the closing bell. We would look for a move back over $38.50 as a new entry point to go long. Our target will be the $42.00-42.50 range. We do expect some resistance near $40.00 to slow down PVH's ascent. Our time frame is about eight weeks. Keep your ears open for any news when PVH presents at the May 3rd Lehman Brothers retail seminar.

Picked on April 19 at $38.59
Change since picked: - 0.43
Earnings Date 06/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 332 thousand

---

PW Eagle - PWEI - close: 31.24 chg: +1.24 stop: 28.45 *new*

PWEI displayed relative strength today. The stock spiked higher on the open and closed with a 4% gain at a new high. The strength is encouraging but considering our time frame we're not suggesting new positions. We will raise the stop loss to $28.45. Our target is the $33.50-34.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $43.00 target. We do not want to hold over the May 2nd earnings report.

Picked on April 16 at $28.92
Change since picked: + 2.32
Earnings Date 05/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 500 thousand

---

Sanderson Farms - SAFM - close: 24.03 chg: +0.08 stop: 21.99

There is still no change from our weekend play description. SAFM's breakout over resistance at $23.00 and its 50-dma (22.99) was powered by strong volume and looks like a new entry point to go long. More conservative traders may want to wait for a rise through the $25.00 level or look for a dip back toward $23.00-23.50 as a new entry. Our target is the $28.00-30.00 range.

Picked on April 23 at $24.77
Change since picked: - 0.74
Earnings Date 05/23/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 537 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Advance Auto Parts - AAP - cls: 39.03 chg: +0.78 stop: 40.05

AAP was probably due for an oversold bounce. What concerns us is the volume. Volume on Tuesday's rebound came in almost double the daily average. That's a warning sign for the bears. The rally did stall at overhead resistance at the 10-dma but today's relative strength is worrisome. We do not want to hold over the mid-May earnings report.

Picked on April 11 at $39.41
Change since picked: - 0.38
Earnings Date 05/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 943 thousand

---

Aeropostale - ARO - close: 29.43 chg: -0.20 stop: 29.05

We see no change from our previous updates on ARO. We're still waiting for a breakdown below support near $28.00. We're using a trigger at $27.69 to open the play. If triggered our target is the $24.00 level. Alternatively, if ARO breaks out over $31.50 (near the top of its trading range) we might consider new bullish positions.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

---

Entercom - ETM - close: 26.47 chg: -0.04 stop: 27.55

We see no change from our previous updates. We do not want to hold over the May 8th earnings report. Broken support at $27.50 should now act as significant resistance. Our target is the $25.50-25.25 range.

Picked on April 18 at $26.80 *gap down*
Change since picked: - 0.33
Earnings Date 05/08/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 346 thousand

---

SCS Transportation - SCST - cls: 26.65 chg: +0.55 stop: 30.01

We cautioned readers to look for an oversold bounce near $26.00 and its 100-dma and SCST delivered one today. A glance at the intraday chart suggests the bounce isn't over yet. A failed rally under $28.00 or its 50-dma can be used as a new bearish entry point. Our target will be the $25.00-24.00 range. We'll start the play with a wide stop loss at $30.01 but more conservative traders may want to put their stop closer to $29.

Picked on April 23 at $27.45
Change since picked: - 0.80
Earnings Date 04/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 166 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

QuickLogic - QUIK - close: 5.76 chg: -0.29 stop: 5.84

We warned readers to expect a breakout soon and QUIK delivered today. The stock lost 4.79% and closed under support near $5.85. We would have been stopped out at $5.84.

Picked on April 02 at $ 5.74
Change since picked: + 0.02
Earnings Date 04/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 242 thousand

---

Threshold Pharma. - THLD - cls: 14.95 chg: -0.10 stop: 14.99

There are no surprises here. We have been stopped out of THLD at $14.99. The stock posted its sixth loss in a row and on below average volume.

Picked on April 16 at $16.06
Change since picked: - 1.11
Earnings Date 05/08/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 384 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

Premier Investor New Play Archives