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New Plays
Long Plays
Short Plays
None ADSK
  FDG
  NILE

New Long Plays

None today.
 

New Short Plays

Autodesk - ADSK - close: 35.13 change: -1.40 stop: 36.65

Company Description:
Autodesk, Inc. is a Fortune 1000 company, wholly focused on ensuring that great ideas are turned into reality. With seven million users, Autodesk is the world's leading software and services company for the manufacturing, infrastructure, building, media and entertainment and wireless data services fields. Autodesk's solutions help customers create, manage and share their data and digital assets more effectively. As a result, customers turn ideas into competitive advantage, become more productive, streamline project efficiency and maximize profits. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
Software stocks have been showing a lot of weakness for weeks. The GSO software sector's attempt at an oversold bounce has failed and today's 1.3% decline in the GSO pushed it to a new one-year low. The sector weakness has helped pull ADSK back down toward support at the $35.00 level. Given the stock's trend of lower highs we suspect that ADSK will also break down to new one-year lows. We are going to suggest a trigger at $34.89 in an attempt to catch a breakdown below support. If triggered we are going to suggest a target in the $32.60-32.50 range and a second target in the 30.75-30.50 range. The P&F chart currently points to a $26.00 target.

Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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Fording Coal - FDG - close: 34.08 change: -1.40 stop: 36.01

Company Description:
Fording Canadian Coal Trust is an open-ended mutual fund trust. Through investments in metallurgical coal and industrial minerals mining and processing operations, the Trust makes quarterly cash distributions to unitholders. The Trust, through its wholly owned subsidiaries, holds a 60% interest in the Elk Valley Coal Partnership and is a leading producer of the industrial mineral wollastonite. Elk Valley Coal, comprised of Canada's senior metallurgical coal mining properties, is the world's second largest exporter of metallurgical coal, supplying high-quality coal products to the international steel industry. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
Our bullish play on coal-producer ACI is reversing on us so we're going to hedge our bets and suggest a short on coal-producer FDG. Technically FDG has just produced a failed rally under resistance at $36.00, its 50-dma and the top of its descending bearish channel. If you really want to get technical the drop today also looks like a breakdown from a bear-wedge pattern. Volume on today's decline came in above average. The Point & Figure chart is bearish and points to a $28 target. We are suggesting shorts with FDG under $35.00. We are going to suggest two targets. Consider selling half or more of your position in the $31.85-31.75 range, since FDG has support near $31.75. Then sell the remainder of your position in the $30.25-30.00 range.

Picked on June 05 at $34.08
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/22/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Blue Nile - NILE - close: 29.72 chg: -1.20 stop: 32.01

Company Description:
Founded in 1999, Blue Nile is the leading online retailer of diamonds and fine jewelry. It has built a well respected brand by providing consumers with a better way to buy diamonds and fine jewelry. Blue Nile has established some of the highest quality standards in the industry and provides consumers with in-depth educational materials and unique online tools that place consumers in control of the jewelry shopping process. The Blue Nile web site showcases thousands of independently certified diamonds and styles of fine jewelry. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
NILE is a high-risk, aggressive short play. The latest data puts short interest at 30% of its 15 million-share float and that creates an opportunity for a big short squeeze. Fortunately for the bears NILE has been and continues to look weak. In the last several weeks NILE has broken down under multiple levels of support and produced a few failed rallies. More recently the stock has been consolidating sideways between $29.50 and $32.00. Now it looks like NILE is poised to breakdown under support in the $29.50-29.20 range. The P&F chart is already bearish and points to a $15.00 target. We are going to suggest a trigger to short NILE at $29.45. More conservative traders may want to avoid this play altogether or wait for a move under $29.20 or $29.00 before initiating positions. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range.

Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 212 thousand
 

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