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New Plays
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Short Plays
None CTX
  PTEN
  XMSR

New Long Plays

None today.
 

New Short Plays

Centex Corp. - CTX - close: 47.37 chg: -0.49 stop: 50.05

Company Description:
Dallas-based Centex, founded in 1950, is one of the nation's leading home building companies. Centex operates in major U.S. markets in 25 states and delivered more than 39,000 homes in the United States in its most recent fiscal year ended March 31, 2006. Its leading brands include Centex Homes, Fox & Jacobs Homes, CityHomes and Centex Destination Properties. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
The homebuilding sector looks poised for more losses. The DJUSHB home construction index is breaking down to new lows after a five-week sideways consolidation. There has been a number of earnings warnings in the group and worries about rising rates and a slow down in the consumer don't help investor confidence. We're suggesting shorts in CTX with the stock under $50.00. Today's decline just produced a new sell signal on the daily chart's MACD indicator. We do expect some sort of bounce near the early June low (44.13) but our target is the $42.60-42.40 range. We do not want to hold over the July 24th earnings report.

Picked on July 13 at $47.37
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million

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Patterson-UTI Ener. - PTEN - close: 25.19 chg: -0.59 stop: 26.41

Company Description:
Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. provides onshore contract drilling services to exploration and production companies in North America. The Company owns 403 land-based drilling rigs that operate primarily in the oil and natural gas producing regions of Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Mississippi, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and western Canada. Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. is also engaged in the businesses of pressure pumping services and drilling and completion fluid services. Additionally, the Company has an exploration and production business. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
PTEN is one oil-service stock that is not responding to the rising price of crude oil. Shares have been falling since the peak in early May. Five days ago PETn broke down below its short-term trendline of support. Right now the stock is poised to breakdown under significant, longer-term support at the $25.00 level. The MACD is bearish and the P&F chart is bearish with a $20 target. This morning before the bell PTEN received another analyst downgrade. We're suggesting that readers use a trigger at $24.90 to open bearish, short positions. Our target is the $22.65-22.45 range. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report. FYI: the latest data puts short interest at 4.8% of PTEN's 169 million-share float.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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XM Sat.Radio - XMSR - close: 13.03 change: -0.50 stop: 14.25

Company Description:
XM is America's number one satellite radio service with more than 6.8 million subscribers. Broadcasting live daily from studios in Washington, DC, New York City, the Country Music Hall of Fame in Nashville, Toronto and Montreal, XM's 2006 lineup includes more than 170 digital channels of choice from coast to coast: the most commercial-free music channels, sports, talk, comedy, children's and entertainment programming; and the most advanced traffic and weather information. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
Investors have been growing more disappointed with XMSR for months and the recent oversold bounce has failed at the $15.00 level. Now the MACD on the daily chart is poised to produce a new sell signal just as shares of XMSR are on the verge of breaking down under support at the $13.00 level. We are going to suggest a trigger to short XMSR at $12.95. More conservative traders may want to wait for a decline under the late May low near $12.77 before initiating positions. Our target is the $10.25-10.00 range. We do not want to hold over the July 27th earnings report. FYI: the latest data puts short interest at 15% of XMSR's 222 million-share float. That's relatively high and increases the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.7 million
 

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