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New Plays
Long Plays
Short Plays
None AOS
  DELL
  LAMR

New Long Plays

None
 

New Short Plays

Smith A O Corp. - AOS - close: 39.94 chg: -0.75 stop: 42.26

Company Description:
A. O. Smith Corporation, with pro forma 2005 sales of $2.2 billion (including the April 2006 acquisition of GSW Inc.), is a diversified manufacturer serving customers worldwide. The company, with headquarters in Milwaukee, Wis., is one of the world's leading manufacturers and marketers of residential and commercial water heating equipment, offering a comprehensive line featuring the best-known brands in the industry. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
Shares of AOS are breaking down from their sideways consolidation. The stock has already broken below its simple and exponential 200-dma(s) and now it's closed under round-number, psychological support at the $40.00 mark. Today's decline under $40.00 also produced a spread, triple-bottom breakdown sell signal on the Point & Figure chart, which now points to a $34.00 target. Honestly, this looks like a new entry point to short the stock right here but we want just a little more confirmation. Thus, we're suggesting a trigger to short AOS at $39.75. If triggered our target is the $35.50-35.00 range.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 288 thousand

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Dell Inc. - DELL - close: 21.14 chg: -0.45 stop: 22.55

Company Description:
Dell Inc. listens to customers and delivers innovative technology and services they trust and value. Uniquely enabled by its direct business model, Dell sells more systems globally than any computer company, placing it No. 25 on the Fortune 500. Company revenue for the past four quarters was $56.7 billion. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
On July 21st DELL issued an earnings warning about its second quarter and the stock gapped lower to hit new multi-year lows. Shares managed to rebound just high enough to "fill the gap" and now the technical indicators are turning lower again. The company still has earnings to report, which are expected in about eight days (still unconfirmed). Given the current trend in shares of DELL, the market's weakness, and worries about an economic slow down we don't see any reason to buy DELL right here. We're suggesting shorts with DELL under $22.00. Our target is the $19.25.00-19.00 range. We do not want to hold over the company's earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart points to a $16 target.

Picked on August 09 at $21.14
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 25.1 million

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Lamar Adver. - LAMR - close: 48.41 chg: -0.57 stop: 50.05

Company Description:
Founded in 1902, Lamar currently operates more than 150 outdoor advertising companies in more than 40 states and Puerto Rico. Lamar operates more than 149,000 billboards and has more than 75 transit franchises that reach driving audiences in 18 states and two provinces through displays on bus shelters, benches and buses. With 97,500 logo sign displays, Lamar is also the nation's leader in the highway logo sign business, with operations in 19 of the 25 states that have privatized their logo programs as well as in the province of Ontario, Canada. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
The initial reaction to LAMR's recent earnings report produced the intraday spike on August 8th. The rally failed near its 50-dma and now shares look poised to breakdown under significant support at the $48.00 level. Technical indicators are already bearish and the P&F chart points to a $40 target. We are suggesting a trigger to short LAMR at $47.90. If triggered our short-term target is the $45.15-45.00 range.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/08/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 862 thousand
 

In Play Updates and Reviews

Long Play Updates

None
 

Short Play Updates

Eagle Materials - EXP - close: 35.53 chg: -0.65 stop: 39.26

Construction and material stocks continued to trend lower on Wednesday and shares of EXP lost 1.79% on average volume. Shares are nearing last week's lows near $35.25 and EXP might see a bit of a bounce but traders can use a failed rally near the 10-dma as a new entry point for shorts. We don't see any changes from our new play description on Tuesday. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 range.

Picked on August 08 at $36.18
Change since picked: - 0.65
Earnings Date 07/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million

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FMC Corp. - FMC - close: 57.53 chg: +0.33 stop: 60.78

FMC displayed some unexpected relative strength on Wednesday but the rally failed at $58.25 and readers can use the move today as a better entry point to open short positions. We don't see any changes from our new play description from Tuesday night. Our target is the $52.00-51.75 range since the $51.75 area was support last winter.

Picked on August 08 at $57.20
Change since picked: + 0.33
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 298 thousand

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Juniper Networks - JNPR - cls: 13.41 chg: +0.49 stop: 14.01

We warned readers to expect a gap higher on JNPR today following CSCO's better than expected earnings results last night. JNPR opened at $13.40 and traded to $13.73 before fading. More conservative traders, if not already stopped out, may want to adjust their stops toward today's high. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target remains the $12.00-10.00 range.

Picked on July 21 at $13.75
Change since picked: - 0.34
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million

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Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 53.79 chg: -0.86 stop: 56.51

Our new bearish play in STLD is now open. The stock broke down under support at the $54.00 level and hit our trigger to short the stock at $53.95. Volume on the breakdown was pretty strong. The move today produced a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal on the P&F chart, which already pointed to a $42 target. We would still consider new positions right here. Our target is the $50.00-49.00 range.

Picked on August 09 at $53.95
Change since picked: - 0.16
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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UAL Corp. - UAUA - close: 23.83 chg: -0.95 stop: 26.55*new*

Airline stocks were weak again today. The XAL index lost over 4% as investors reacted to news that some airlines are cutting leisure fares for autumn after several fare hikes. Shares of UAUA lost 3.83% and closed at a new low. We are going to lower our stop loss to $26.55. Our target is the $22.00-20.00 range.

Picked on August 01 at $25.70
Change since picked: - 1.87
Earnings Date 07/31/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million

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Meridian Biosci. - VIVO - cls: 19.89 chg: -0.38 stop: 22.05

Good news! This looks like a new entry point for shorts in VIVO. The stock produced a failed rally under $21.00 and closed under round-number support at the $20.00 mark today. Volume on the session was pretty strong. The move was a reaction to the company's guidance out today. VIVO reaffirmed its 2006 guidance that was just under analyst estimates. Our target is the $18.15-18.00 range since the $18.00 level was support last year. FYI: the P&F chart shows a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $16 target.

Picked on July 23 at $20.94
Change since picked: - 1.05
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 175 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

E*Trade - ET - close: 22.35 change: -0.91 stop: 22.34

We have been stopped out at $22.34. Our update yesterday warned readers that the action in ET did not look healthy. The sell-off was relatively sharp with a 3.9% decline and a breakdown below its 200-dma. The technical indicators have definitely taken a turn for the worse.

Picked on August 04 at $23.61 *gap higher*
Change since picked: - 1.26
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.3 million

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Highland Hospitality - HIH - cls: 13.50 chg: -0.13 stop: 13.25

We are throwing in the towel early on HIH. The stock is consolidating lower and looks like it could dip toward the 50-dma near $13.30. While that would not stop us out our market bias is bearish and there's no guarantee that HIH won't keep falling. We'll keep an eye on the stock for another breakout attempt over $14.00.

Picked on August 04 at $13.85
Change since picked: - 0.35
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 388 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

Watson Wyatt Wld - WW - close: 31.84 chg: -0.31 stop: 33.19

WW is due to report earnings tomorrow so it was our plan to close the play tonight at the market's closing bell to avoid holding over the report. Wall Street is expecting WW to report 42-cents a share.

Picked on July 16 at $33.19
Change since picked: - 1.35
Earnings Date 08/10/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 216 thousand
 

Premier Investor New Play Archives