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New Plays
Long Plays
Short Plays
None BHS
  OS
  PRAA

New Long Plays

None today.
 

New Short Plays

Brookefield Homes- BHS - close: 23.69 chg: -0.31 stop: 24.55

Company Description:
Brookfield Homes Corporation is a residential homebuilder and land developer, building homes and developing land in master-planned communities and infill locations. We design, construct and market single-family and multi-family homes primarily to move-up and luxury homebuyers. We also entitle and develop land for our own communities and sell lots to other homebuilders. Our portfolio includes 30,000 lots owned and controlled in the San Francisco Bay Area; Southland / Los Angeles; San Diego / Riverside; Sacramento; and Washington D.C. Area markets. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
The housing market is cooling and the homebuilders have been issuing earnings warnings for weeks now. It's not surprising that their stocks have been pummeled as investors exit the sector. We hesitate to suggest a short play in the group because they are so beaten down but it looks like the industry is poised for another leg lower. The oversold bounce in BHS has reversed and now the stock is hovering above short-term support near $23.00. We're suggesting a trigger at $22.99 to open new bearish plays. If triggered our target is the $20.10-20.00 range. Please note that the latest (July) data puts short interest at 20% of BHS' 26.2 million-share float. That is a high degree of short interest and increases the risk of a short-squeeze!

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 497 thousand

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Oregon Steel - OS - close: 47.39 chg: -2.05 stop: 50.51

Company Description:
Oregon Steel Mills, which is headquartered in Portland, Oregon, is organized into two divisions. The Oregon Steel Division produces as-rolled and heat-treated steel plate, coil, welded pipe (both large and small diameter line pipe and casing) and structural tubing from plants located in Portland, Oregon and Camrose, Alberta, Canada. The Rocky Mountain Steel Mills Division, located in Pueblo, Colorado, produces steel rail, rod and bar, and seamless tubular products. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
There are several stocks in the iron and steel-sector that have been showing relative weakness. OS is one of them and looks poised to fall even further. The stock failed to breakout over resistance near $51.00 and now shares have broken their short-term trend of higher lows (support). The Point & Figure chart is still bullish but short-term technicals have turned negative. We are suggesting shorts with OS under $49.00. Our target is the $42.50-42.00 range, which is essentially near the bottom of its two-month trading range. The latest (July) data puts short interest at 6% of OS' 35.7 million share float.

Picked on August 13 at $47.39
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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Portfol.Recov.Assoc. - PRAA - cls: 39.99 chg: -0.76 stop: 42.05

Company Description:
Portfolio Recovery Associates is a full-service provider of outsourced receivables management and related services. The company's primary business is the purchase, collection and management of portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
Shares of PRAA broke down under significant support at the $44.00 level back in July. Since then the stock traded sideways in a $40-44 trading range while investors waited for the company's earnings report. Earnings came and went and now traders are selling the stock. Technicals have turned bearish and PRAA is in the process of breaking down under the bottom of its trading range and round-number support at $40.00. The P&F chart is already bearish with a $32 target. We are suggesting a trigger at $39.49 (under Friday's low) to open new short positions. If triggered our target is the $36.00-35.00 range.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 166 thousand
 

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