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RTN FNM
  MCK

New Long Plays

Raytheon - RTN - close: 50.87 change: +0.30 stop: 49.85

Company Description:
Raytheon Company, with 2005 sales of $21.9 billion, is an industry leader in defense and government electronics, space, information technology, technical services, and business and special mission aircraft. With headquarters in Waltham, Mass., Raytheon employs 80,000 people worldwide. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
Aerospace and defense stocks have been a pocket of relative strength the last couple of weeks. Shares of RTN have been breaking out and are currently near all-time highs near the $51 level. The recent bounce from the $50 region looks like a new entry point and more aggressive traders might want to open positions now or on a dip near $50. We want to see a new high over $51.00 so we're suggesting a trigger to go long the stock at $51.05. If triggered our target is the $54.50-55.00 range.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million
 

New Short Plays

Fannie Mae - FNM - close: 57.39 chg: -0.68 stop: 58.55

Company Description:
Fannie Mae is a New York Stock Exchange Company. It operates pursuant to a federal charter. Fannie Mae has pledged through its American Dream Commitment to expand access to homeownership for millions of first-time home buyers; help raise the minority homeownership rate to 55 percent; make homeownership and rental housing a success for millions of families at risk of losing their homes; and expand the supply of affordable housing where it is needed most. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
Financial-related stocks have struggled the last few days and the technicals on the banking indices have turned bearish. Shares of FNM could be weighing on the group. The stock produced a big bearish reversal/failed rally in early November and now the stock is breaking down under support near $58 and its 50-dma. We are suggesting shorts with FNM under $58.00. Our short-term target is the $54.00 level, where we suspect that FNM might find support at its rising 100-dma. We'll try and limit our risk with a tight stop loss at $58.55. More aggressive traders might want to think about putting their stop above $59 or $60 to give FNM more room to maneuver. FYI: The P&F chart is currently bullish but the stock could see a lot of profit taking and still maintain a buy signal.

Picked on November 26 at $57.39
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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McKesson - MCK - close: 48.18 change: -0.36 stop: 50.01

Company Description:
McKesson Corporation is a Fortune 16 healthcare services and information technology company dedicated to helping its customers deliver high-quality healthcare by reducing costs, streamlining processes and improving the quality and safety of patient care. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
News out on Friday that Wal-Mart (WMT) had renewed its drug-supply deal with MCK failed to have any lasting impact on MCK's stock price. Shares spiked to $49.36 Friday morning (tagging its 10-dma) and then collapsed again. The stock has been showing relative weakness even since it produced a large double-top (bearish) pattern with the September peak. We see Friday's failed rally as a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the June lows but we're using the $45.00-44.50 range as our official exit range. Our stop loss is a bit wide at $50.01 and more conservative traders might consider a tighter stop near Friday's high. FYI: The latest data put short-interest at less than one percent of the float.

Picked on November 26 at $48.18
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million
 

In Play Updates and Reviews

Long Play Updates

A.G.Edwards - AGE - close: 59.69 change: -0.14 stop: 55.95

Several of the broker-dealer/investment stocks were hit with profit taking on Friday morning. Shares of AGE gapped open lower but quickly bounced and almost make it back into the green before the early close on Friday. We're not that surprised and have been warning readers to expect some resistance at the $60.00 level. Shares do look somewhat overbought and due for a stronger consolidation. A dip back to the 10-dma or the 58 level could be used as a new bullish entry point to go long the stock. Broken resistance in the $57.75-58.00 range should offer new support. Our target is the $62.50 level. The P&F chart has a quadruple-top breakout buy signal with a $70 target.

Picked on November 15 at $58.15
Change since picked: + 1.54
Earnings Date 12/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 386 thousand

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ALON USA Ener. - ALJ - close: 30.25 chg: +0.42 stop: 27.75

The price of ALJ shares has for the most part been disconnected from the price of crude oil over the last several weeks. However, it did not hurt the stock that crude oil bounced back over $60 a barrel on Friday thanks to talk that OPEC might announce new production cuts in December. Shares of ALJ rallied for a 1.4% gain and pushed back above resistance at the $30.00 level. We see this as another entry point to go long the stock. Our target is the $33.50-34.00 range. Be aware that the 100-dma near $32 might offer some resistance. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish after the August-September sell-off.

Picked on November 21 at $30.15
Change since picked: + 0.10
Earnings Date 11/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 504 thousand

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Celadon Group - CLDN - cls: 19.82 chg: +0.11 stop: 18.95*new*

We remain cautious with CLDN. The transports edged lower on Friday thanks to a rise in crude oil futures. Shares of CLDN dipped to $19.22 before quickly bouncing back. The rebound produced what might be described as a "hammer" candlestick, which can be a bullish reversal. Unfortunately, CLDN remain stuck in its short-term trend of lower highs and lower lows. Currently the five-day consolidation looks a bit like a bull flag sans the flag pole. Aggressive traders might consider buying CLDN's bounce on Friday. We would wait for a new move over $$20.15 before considering new positions. If we don't see some sort of bounce on Monday we'll probably close this play. We will try and reduce our risk by raising the stop loss to $18.95. Our target is the $22.00 level. Plan for some resistance at $21.00 at least on the initial test.

Picked on November 12 at $19.44
Change since picked: + 0.38
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 305 thousand

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Heinz - HNZ - close: 44.36 change: -0.11 stop: 42.75*new*

HNZ experienced some profit taking on Friday morning but traders bought the dip near $43.90 and the stock recouped most of its losses. We're running out of time for this play given HNZ's upcoming earnings report on November 30th. Our plan is to exit on Wednesday the 29th at the closing bell to avoid holding over the report. Considering our time frame we are adjusting the target to $45.50 and adjusting the stop loss to $42.75. We're not suggesting new positions.

Picked on November 08 at $43.20
Change since picked: + 1.16
Earnings Date 11/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Ladish Co - LDSH - close: 34.09 change: -0.22 stop: 32.99

Several days ago LDSH broke out over a significant trendline of resistance (see chart) but has since struggled to make it past the $35.00 level. The larger trend is bullish but short-term we want to see more confirmation before considering long positions. Aggressive traders may want to consider going long on a rise past $35.10-35.15. We would rather wait for a rally past $35.50 so we're suggesting a trigger to go long the stock at $35.55. If triggered our target is the $39.90-40.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $44 target.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 241 thousand

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Lee Enter. - LEE - close: 28.68 change: -0.32 stop: 27.99

In the last few months it looks like LEE has produced a significant bottom and staged a bullish reversal. More recently the stock has been consolidating sideways against resistance near $29 and its 200-dma while also producing a bullish pattern of higher lows. Currently the two-day pull back has dragged LEE back to its short-term trendline of higher lows. A bounce from here would make an attractive entry point but more conservative traders may want to see a new relative high (above 29.35) before starting new plays. Conservative traders currently long the stock might want to adjust their stop toward $28.50 to reduce their risk. Be prepared for some resistance near $30.00 but we expect LEE to press through it after a day or two. Our target is the $32.00 level.

Picked on November 21 at $29.30
Change since picked: - 0.62
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 232 thousand

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Pride Intl. - PDE - close: 30.87 change: -0.41 stop: 27.89

After Wednesday's big gain in PDE investors decided to lock in some gains on Friday. The stock gave back 1.3%. If you are looking for new bullish positions consider waiting for a dip back into the $30.50-30.00 range. Broken resistance near $29.85-30.00 should now offer new support in addition to broken resistance at the 200-dma offering potential support. Don't be surprised if PDE sees some resistance near $32.00 but the trend is definitely bullish and we're aiming for the $33.00-34.00 range. The P&F chart has reversed into a new buy signal that has seen its target grow from $41 to $44.

Picked on November 21 at $30.10
Change since picked: + 0.77
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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VeriSign - VRSN - close: 24.00 change: +0.00 stop: 21.90

Shares of VRSN resisted some early morning profit taking on Friday to close unchanged on the session. The stock continues to look bullish but VRSN is arguably short-term overbought. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. If you're concerned about a sell-off more conservative traders could put their stop under last week's lows near $22.90. We are leaving our stop under the $22 level for now. Our target is the $24.90-25.00 range.

Picked on November 13 at $22.51
Change since picked: + 1.49
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million

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Worthington Ind. - WOR - close: 18.48 chg: +0.18 stop: 17.39

Shares of steel-maker WOR managed to hit a new relative high on Friday. We remain bullish given WOR's breakout over resistance at the $18.00 level. The question is how will WOR handle potential resistance at the 100-dma near $18.75 and the 200-dma near $19.00. Our target is the $19.85-20.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $31 target.

Picked on November 19 at $17.96
Change since picked: + 0.52
Earnings Date 12/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 868 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

None
 

Closed Long Plays

Cameco - CCJ - close: 36.40 change: +1.69 stop: 30.89

Target surpassed. Friday proved to be a very strong day for shares of CCJ. Not only were gold and metal stocks higher on Friday due to weakness in the U.S. dollar but shares of CCJ were rising on news that it had signed a deal to work with a Russian nuclear company to co-develop and explore for uranium. The news actually hit Wednesday night. Shares of CCJ gapped open at $36.25 on Friday morning and hit an intraday high of $36.83. Since our target was the $35-36 range we would have exited immediately on Friday's open.

Picked on November 19 at $32.78
Change since picked: + 3.62
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million

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Thor Industries. - THO - close: 44.69 chg: -0.26 stop: 42.99

Time is up. The earnings date is still unconfirmed but THO is expected to announce on Monday the 27th. It was our plan to exit on Friday at the close to avoid holding over the company's report.

Picked on November 15 at $44.25
Change since picked: + 0.44
Earnings Date 11/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 624 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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