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New Long Plays

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In Play Updates and Reviews

Long Play Updates

Commscope - CTV - close: 33.31 change: -0.20 stop: 31.89

CTV is still consolidating lower on below average volume, which is actually what we want to see as a bull on the stock. A bounce near its rising 10-dma (around $33.00) or maybe the $32.50 region could be used as a new bullish entry point. However, we would be extra cautious about opening new long positions since the major market averages still look vulnerable. Our target is the $34.85-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish.

Picked on January 24 at $32.05
Change since picked: + 1.26
Earnings Date 02/22/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 862 thousand


EchoStar - DISH - close: 41.70 chg: +0.12 stop: 39.75

If you are the optimistic type then today's session was good news for DISH. The stock failed to see any follow through on Friday's bearish reversal candlestick. On the other hand the bounce was pretty mild. If you are looking for a new entry point we'd wait for a dip and a bounce in the $40.00-41.00 zone. We remain hesitant to open any new bullish plays at the moment. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range.

Picked on February 04 at $40.38
Change since picked: + 2.06
Earnings Date 03/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million


Florida EastCo. - FLA - cls: 64.16 chg: +0.63 stop: 60.85

FLA continues to amaze. The stock displayed relative strength again with another new high and a breakout past the $64.00 level. Volume came in above average again. Earnings are coming up so we're adjusting the stop loss to breakeven at $62.31. The company is due to report on Thursday so we are planning to exit at the close on Wednesday. We are adjusting the target to $64.85-66.00.

Picked on February 04 at $62.31
Change since picked: + 1.85
Earnings Date 02/15/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 113 thousand


Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 55.45 chg: -0.58 stop: 52.41

After hitting new three-month highs last week, shares of GVA suffered some profit taking today. The stock dipped under its rising 10-dma this morning before traders bought the dip. The intraday bounce near the bottom of its bullish channel looks like a potential entry point but unfortunately we're out of time. The company is expected to report earnings after the closing bell on February 14th. We plan to exit at the close on Wednesday to avoid holding over earnings. Our target remains the $57.50 mark.

Picked on January 21 at $52.41
Change since picked: + 3.04
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 509 thousand


PeopleSupport - PSPT - close: 22.26 chg: -0.97 stop: 21.89

Ouch! PSPT lost 4.1% on above average volume and closed near support around the $22.00 level. Something happened just after 2:00 p.m. (Eastern) today as shares of PSPT dropped of a cliff. We could not find any news to account for the sudden weakness. Technicals have turned bearish and more conservative traders may want to exit early immediately. We have been warning readers to expect a dip towards $22.50 or $22.00 and we got it but we don't know what the catalyst was behind the plunge, which makes us cautious. Technically a bounce from support near $22 would be a new entry point to buy the stock but given our cautious outlook on the major averages we would hesitate to begin new long plays.

Picked on January 28 at $23.24
Change since picked: - 0.98
Earnings Date 03/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 295 thousand


21st Century - TCHC - close: 21.83 change: -0.05 stop: 20.95

TCHC posted another decline but the session wasn't a complete loss. The stock bounced intraday near last week's lows and that might be forecasting a new breakout attempt from this two-week consolidation. If the stock can trade past $22.50 or $23.00 we would consider new bullish positions. More conservative traders may want to wait for a rise past the 50-dma near $23.00. Traders should also note that we can't find an earnings date for the company even though they recently raised their earnings guidance. We have two targets. Our conservative target is the $24.85-25.00 range. Our more aggressive target is the $27.00-27.50 range.

Picked on February 06 at $22.37
Change since picked: - 0.54
Earnings Date 00/00/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 115 thousand

Short Play Updates

Avid Tech. - AVID - close: 32.28 chg: +0.01 stop: 37.41

AVID traded sideways in a 44-cent range on Monday. We do not see any changes from our weekend comments. The stock remains near potential support around $32.00 and its July 2006 lows. If the stock was going to stage a bounce this would be a good spot for it to occur. Therefore we're not suggesting new positions at this time. The P&F chart points to a $29.00 target. FYI: Readers should note that the most recent (January) data puts short interest at 12.2% of AVID's 40.9 million-share float, which is relatively high and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 05 at $34.65
Change since picked: - 2.37
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 677 thousand


Comptr.Prog.&Sys - CPSI - cls: 28.51 chg: +0.16 stop: 32.01

Hmmm... if you check CPSI's historical prices it will say that shares closed last Friday at $28.71. Today's close was at $28.51, which would be a 20-cent loss yet most services are reporting a 16-cent gain. Ignoring the funny numbers for a second we can see that CPSI is still consolidating lower but shares might bounce near the early February low around $27.60. More conservative traders might want to consider a stop loss closer to the $31.00 level. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The P&F chart points to an $18 target. The most recent (January) data puts short interest at 10.3% of the company's 9.3 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and with such a small float it really increases the risk of a short squeeze so trade cautiously!!

Picked on February 06 at $29.52
Change since picked: - 0.81
Earnings Date 01/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 97 thousand


Cash Amer. - CSH - close: 42.75 chg: +0.24 stop: 44.75

After two days of declines traders bought the dip near $42.00 in CSH this morning. Should the stock continue to bounce we would look for a failed rally in the $43.50-44.00 area as a new entry point for shorts. Alternatively readers could wait for a drop under $42.00 as an entry point. Our target is the $39.00-38.50 range, which is where we expect CSH to meet up with its 200-ema again. We'll put our stop loss just above the 50-dma. The P&F chart points to a $33.00 target.

Picked on February 11 at $42.51
Change since picked: + 0.24
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 390 thousand


Illumina - ILMN - close: 34.93 change: +0.85 stop: 36.16

Last Friday saw ILMN produce a very bearish breakdown under $35.00 and its 200-dma. The stock reversed on Monday, rising 2.49%, after announcing a $325 million debt offering with plans to spend $200 million on buying back common stock. The stock buyback is the likely culprit behind today's rebound. We would wait and watch for a failed rally under $35.00 or $36.00 as a new entry point for shorts. At this point we'd prefer to only open positions under $35.00. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $25 target. FYI: Traders should note that the latest (January) data put short interest at 11.8% of the company's 43 million-share float. That is relatively high short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze should the stock rebound unexpectedly.

Picked on February 11 at $34.08
Change since picked: + 0.85
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million


Teledyne Tech - TDY - close: 37.43 change: +0.34 stop: 40.01

TDY is trying to rebound after dipping under support at the $37.00 level this morning. Given the current bearish trend of lower highs the stock should run into resistance in the $38.50-39.00 area. A failed rally under $39.00 can be used as a new entry point for shorts. Currently our target is the $34.25-34.00 range. The P&F chart has a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $33 target. FYI: The latest (January) data has short interest at 3.7% of the company's 31.3 million-share float.

Picked on January 28 at $37.80
Change since picked: - 0.37
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 197 thousand

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