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New Plays
Long Plays
Short Plays
None DELL
  GME
  KR
  LEA
  NTLS
  RVBD
  SII
  SWY

New Long Plays

None today.
 

New Short Plays

Dell Inc. - DELL - cls: 27.15 change: -1.03 stop: 28.26

Company Description:
Uniquely enabled by its direct business model, Dell sells more systems globally than any computer company, placing it No. 34 on the Fortune 500. Dell's climb to market leadership is the result of a persistent focus on delivering the best possible customer experience by directly selling standards-based computing products and services. Revenue for the last four quarters totaled $57.5 billion and the company employs approximately 88,100 team members around the globe. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
Shares of DELL have broken their five-month bullish trend. Recent attempts at a bounce have failed under $28.50. Aggressive traders may want to open short positions now. We're suggesting that readers wait for a breakdown under $27.00. Our suggested entry point is at $26.95. If triggered our target is the $25.75-25.50 zone just above the rising 200-dma. We'll place our stop just above Friday's high. We do not want to hold over the late August earnings report.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 21.0 million

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Gamestop - GME - close: 39.55 change: -1.96 stop: 41.65

Company Description:
Headquartered in Grapevine, TX, GameStop Corp. is the world's largest video game and entertainment software retailer. The company operates 4,816 retail stores across the United States and in sixteen countries worldwide. The company also owns two e-commerce sites, GameStop.com and EBgames.com, and Game Informer magazine, a leading multi-platform video game publication. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
GME dropped almost 5% on Friday with huge volume after news hit that videogame maker TTWO would delay its latest Grand Theft Auto release. While some Wall Street analysts defended GME and the stock recovered from its intraday low this is still a very bearish breakdown. Technical indicators also suggest the next move will be lower. We are suggesting shorts now with GME under $40.00. More conservative traders might want to wait for a little more confirmation and look for a new move under $38.80 before opening shorts. Our target is the $35.50-35.00 range. FYI: Readers should note that the latest (July) data puts short interest at 4.5% of GME's 144 million-share float.

Picked on August 05 at $39.55
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million

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Kroger - KR - close: 25.83 change: -0.97 stop: 27.26

Company Description:
Headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio, Kroger is one of the nation's largest retail grocery chains. At the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2007, the Company operated (either directly or through its subsidiaries) 2,458 supermarkets and multi-department stores in 31 states under two dozen local banners including Kroger and Kroger Marketplace, Ralphs, Fred Meyer, Food 4 Less, King Soopers, Smith's and Smith's Marketplace, Fry's and Fry's Marketplace, Dillons, QFC and City Market. Kroger also operated (either directly or through subsidiaries, franchise agreements, or operating agreements) 779 convenience stores, 408 fine jewelry stores, 652 supermarket fuel centers and 42 food processing plants. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
The grocery stocks have been showing a lot of weakness lately and the recent oversold bounce has failed. This looks like a new entry point for shorts to capture the next leg down in KR. The stock is under technical support at its 200-dma and under potential price support near $26.00. We're suggesting shorts here. More conservative traders may want to see a new relative low under $25.75 before initiating positions. Our short-term target is the $24.10-24.00 range. FYI: We're also adding SWY as a bearish play tonight. We suggest that you limit your exposure and only play one grocery stock if you choose to short a stock in that sector.

Picked on August 05 at $25.83
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 09/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.7 million

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Lear Corp. - LEA - cls: 32.96 chg: -1.19 stop: 36.05

Company Description:
Lear Corporation is one of the world's largest suppliers of automotive interior systems and components. Lear provides complete seating systems, electronic products and electrical distribution systems. In 2006, Lear ranked #130 among the Fortune 500. Lear's world-class products are designed, engineered and manufactured by a diverse team of more than 90,000 employees at 242 facilities in 33 countries. Lear's headquarters are in Southfield, Michigan. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
LEA recently reported earnings and the results were mixed. The stock spiked toward $36.00 before reversing on the news. Technically the stock has produced a big bearish double-top pattern with the February and July peaks. The recent July breakdown under support near $35.00 is also very bearish. LEA has also broken technical support at its 200-dma. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22 target. We are suggesting shorts now with the stock under $35.00. We have two targets. Our first target is the $30.25-30.00 range. Our second target is the $27.75-27.50 zone.

Picked on August 05 at $32.96
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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NTELOS - NTLS - cls: 25.76 change: -1.29 stop: 27.75

Company Description:
An integrated communications provider headquartered in Waynesboro, Virginia, nTelos provides products and services to customers in Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio and North Carolina, including wireless phone service, high-speed DSL (high-speed Internet access) and local and long- distance telephone services. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
NTLS announced what appeared to be a very positive earnings report last Thursday. Yet the earnings-induced rally stalled at the $27.70 level. The stock has since reversed lower again, which seems to confirm the trend reversal that occurred a couple of weeks ago. We're suggesting shorts now but more conservative traders may want to wait for some more follow through before initiating positions. The 100-dma near $24 might be support but we're aiming for the $22.25-22.00 range.

Picked on August 05 at $25.76
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 402 thousand

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Riverbed Tech. - RVBD - cls: 41.79 change: -2.36 stop: 45.75

Company Description:
Riverbed Technology is the performance leader in wide-area data services (WDS) solutions for companies worldwide. By enabling application performance over the wide area network (WAN) that is orders of magnitude faster than what users experience today, Riverbed is changing the way people work, and enabling a distributed workforce that can collaborate as if they were local. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
The technicals on RVBD are bearish and getting worse. Volume came in strong on Friday's sell-off. The P&F chart has a very bearish triangle breakdown pattern with a $35 target. We are suggesting shorts now although traders could use another failed rally under $44.00 or a new relative low under $40.00 as alternative entry points. Our target is the $36.00-35.00 range. FYI: More conservative traders may want to step back and wait a day to see how the market reacts to RVBD's latest produce "preview" expected on Monday morning at 9:00 am PT.

Picked on August 05 at $41.79
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Smith Intl. Inc. - SII - cls: 56.91 change: -1.80 stop: 62.05

Company Description:
Smith International, Inc. is a leading worldwide supplier of premium products and services to the oil and gas exploration and production industry through its four principal business units - M-I SWACO, Smith Technologies, Smith Services and Wilson. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
Oil and oil service stocks have really been showing a lot of weakness lately. The OSX oil service index just broke down from its bullish trend. SII has followed suit with a breakdown under support near $60 and its 50-dma. We think the weakness in the oil stocks is going to multiply when crude oil eventually corrects in the next few weeks. We are using a wide (aggressive) stop loss on SII to give the stock room to maneuver. We're suggesting shorts now although another failed rally under $60 would definitely be an attractive entry point. The $55.00 level and its 100-dma do look like short-term support but our target is the $51.00-50.00 range. If SII can trade under $56.00 it will produce a new P&F chart sell signal.

Picked on August 05 at $56.91
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million

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Safeway Stores - SWY - cls: 31.59 change: -0.70 stop: 33.16

Company Description:
Safeway Inc. is a Fortune 100 company and one of the largest food and drug retailers in North America, based on sales. The company operates 1,740 stores in the United States and western Canada and had annual sales of $40.2 billion in 2006. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
SWY produced a nasty breakdown a couple of weeks ago, falling through support near $33.00. The oversold bounce has now failed twice under the $33.00 level as broken support becomes new resistance. The P&F chart shows a quadruple bottom breakdown sell signal with a $24 target. We're suggesting shorts now. There is potential round-number support at $30.00 but our target is the $28.00-27.50 range. FYI: We're also adding KR to the newsletter as a short. If you choose to play a grocery stock we'd only pick one.

Picked on August 05 at $31.59
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.1 million
 

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