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New Plays
Long Plays
Short Plays
None BER
  CUZ
  MRX
  TRMB

New Long Plays

None today.
 

New Short Plays

W.R. Berkley - BER - close: 28.67 chg: -0.52 stop: 30.55

Company Description:
Founded in 1967, W. R. Berkley Corporation is an insurance holding company that is among the largest commercial lines writers in the United States and operates in five segments of the property casualty insurance business: specialty insurance, regional property casualty insurance, alternative markets, reinsurance, and international. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
The rebound from BER's August lows is over. Shares have produced what appears to be a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern with the neckline near $28.50. Technical indicators are bearish and the P&F chart points to a $14 target. We are suggesting a trigger to short BER at $28.40, which is under support. If triggered our target is the $26.00-25.50 zone. The latest data does not show a high amount of short interest, which is good but the data might be a little out of date.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Cousins Properties - CUZ - close: 24.15 change: -0.88 stop: 26.31

Company Description:
Cousins Properties Incorporated, headquartered in Atlanta, has extensive experience in the real estate industry including the development, acquisition, financing, management and leasing of properties. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
REIT stocks have been struggling and shares of CUZ are in a six-week bearish channel. The stock is testing support near $24.00 and broke down under this level intraday on Friday. If the sector continues to fall we want to capture any further weakness in CUZ. Therefore we're suggesting a trigger to short the stock at $23.65, which would be a new multi-year low. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. Readers should note that this is a more aggressive play because of our relatively wide stop loss. Plus, the latest data puts short interest at over 10% of the 36.8 million-share float, which raises the risk of a short squeeze, especially with the stock near support.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 506 thousand

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Medicis Pharma - MRX - close: 26.08 change: -0.47 stop: 28.05

Company Description:
Medicis is the leading independent specialty pharmaceutical company in the United States focusing primarily on the treatment of dermatological and aesthetic conditions. The Company is dedicated to helping patients attain a healthy and youthful appearance and self-image. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
MRX recently reported earnings in early November and the company guided lower for the fourth quarter. This news ended the oversold bounce from its October lows and now shares are hitting new lows for the year. Technicals are bearish and the P&F chart points to a $19 target. We are suggesting shorts now although more patient traders might want to consider trying to wait and short a failed rally under $27.00. Our target is the $23.00-22.50 zone. FYI: Any time we play a biotech stock we're dealing with a high-risk situation. MRX seems to be more of a drug company but we're still at risk that some FDA decision or some clinical trial news could send the stock gapping one direction or the other. Furthermore the most recent data puts short interest at more than 23% of MRX's 49.2 million-share float. That is a high-degree of short interest and raises the risk for a short squeeze.

Picked on November 18 at $26.08
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Trimble Navigation - TRMB - cls: 37.65 chg: -0.76 stop: 40.01

Company Description:
Trimble applies technology to make field and mobile workers in businesses and government significantly more productive. Solutions are focused on applications requiring position or location-including surveying, construction, agriculture, fleet and asset management, public safety and mapping. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
TRMB has had a pretty strong long-term up trend but that trend is in jeopardy. Shares peaked near $43.00 and sellers have pretty much put a lid on the stock the last few weeks. The stock witnessed some volatility on October 24th following its earnings report. The company beat by 1 cent, missed the revenue number and only issued guidance that was in-line with current analyst estimates. Shares have now fallen toward support near its 100-dma and its trendline (see chart). We suspect shares are poised for a deeper correction. Our suggested trigger for shorts is at $37.25, just under the 100-dma. If triggered our target is the rising 200-dma (currently near $32.90). Our moving target will start at the $33.00-32.90 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $30.00 target. FYI: Short interest looks pretty low, which is surprising.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 970 thousand
 

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