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New Plays
Long Plays
Short Plays
AOC AVY
  CCU
  HSY
  PBI

Play Editor's Note: Just a publishing note, I am going to be out of the office on Wednesday, January 16th so there will be no play updates that evening.

FYI: A few stocks I'm watching. CTX is trying to put in a bottom. This could be an aggressive, high-risk entry point for longs. I'd target $24 but exit ahead of earnings. These look like potential shorts: ARO, BRCM, NYT, OMRI, PDCO, RICK, and RKT.


New Long Plays

Aon Corp. - AOC - cls: 45.17 change: +0.34 stop: 43.95

Company Description:
Aon Corporation is the leading global provider of risk management services, insurance and reinsurance brokerage, human capital and management consulting, and specialty insurance underwriting. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
The insurance group as a sector hasn't been performing that well but AOC has been beating its peers. The market's recent weakness has pulled AOC toward support near $44.00, its 200-dma and the bottom of its rising channel. The bounce from $44.00 looks like a new entry point to buy AOC. However, we want to see confirmation. Therefore we're suggesting a trigger to buy the stock at $46.15, which is above technical resistance at its 10-dma and 100-dma near $46.00. If triggered our target is the $49.75-50.00 range.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.1 million
 

New Short Plays

Avery Dennison - AVY - close: 48.50 change: -1.13 stop: 50.85

Company Description:
Avery Dennison is a global leader in pressure-sensitive labeling materials, office products and retail tag, ticketing and branding systems. Based in Pasadena, Calif., Avery Dennison is a FORTUNE 500 Company with 2006 sales of $5.6 billion. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
AVY is providing bears another entry points to short it. The stock broke down from its trading range last week. The Thursday-Friday move looks like a failed rally at $50.00 and our cue to open bearish positions. There could be some support near $46.25 but we're setting our first target for $45.15-45.00. Our second, more aggressive target is the $42.50 mark. Unfortunately, AVY probably won't reach our second target before its end of January earnings report. The P&F chart is bearish with a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal and a $40 target. We're starting with a stop loss at $50.85. More conservative traders may want to consider a tighter stop loss like $50.05. FYI: The most recent short interest was listed at 3.2% of the 97.3 million-share float.

Picked on January 13 at $48.50
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/29/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Clear Channel Comm. - CCU - cls: 34.47 chg: -0.53 stop: 35.31

Company Description:
Clear Channel Radio is a leading radio company focused on serving local communities across the U.S. with more than 110 million listeners choosing Clear Channel Radio programming each week. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
If the market is worried about a recession then sales could be slowing for CCU. The stock has developed a bearish pattern of lower lows and lower highs as investors continue to sell the rally attempts. Lately CCU has found resistance at its 50-dma. We are suggesting shorts here under $35.00. Our short-term target is the $32.15-32.00 range. The November 19, 2007 low was $32.02. The P&F chart is bearish with a $28 target. FYI: The most recent short interest data was 3.2% of the 429 million-share float.

Picked on January 13 at $34.47
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.0 million

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The Hershey Co. - HSY - cls: 37.46 chg: +0.46 stop: 39.25

Company Description:
The Hershey Company is the largest North American manufacturer of quality chocolate and sugar confectionery products. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
I hesitated to add HSY because the stock's decline looks so overdone. Yet shares continue to drift lower week after week. The action last week produced a bearish breakdown under support near $38.00 after six weeks of bouncing from the $38 level. We're going to aim for the $35.15-35.00 range because we don't have much time. HSY is due to report earnings at the end of January. We're suggesting a stop loss at $39.25 but more conservative traders might try to get away with a tighter stop above $38.25. FYI: The latest short interest data was about 3.8% of the 226 million-share float.

Picked on January 13 at $37.46
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million

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Pitney Bowes - PBI - cls: 35.94 chg: -1.14 stop: 38.05

Company Description:
Pitney Bowes is a mailstream technology company that helps organizations manage the flow of information, mail, documents and packages. Our 35,000 employees deliver technology, service and innovation to more than two million customers worldwide. The company was founded in 1920 and annual revenues now total $6 billion. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
Shares of PBI look like they just started their next leg down. The stock crashed back in October 2007 after missing earnings and guiding lower. Management tried to support the stock by announcing a $500 million six-month buy back plan. PBI managed to consolidate sideways for a couple of months but now it's hitting new multi-year lows. We're suggesting shorts here under $36.50. Our target is the $32.25-32.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 2.2% of the 216 million-share float.

Picked on January 13 at $35.94
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/07/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million
 

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