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New Plays
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New Long Plays

None today.

New Short Plays

Granite Const. - GVA - close: 30.19 change: -1.79 stop: 32.55

Company Description:
Granite Construction Incorporated is a member of the S&P 400 Index, Russell 2000 and the Domini 400 Social Index and is the parent company of Granite Construction Company, one of the nation's largest heavy civil contractors and construction materials producers. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
After a big drop from last week's highs we feel like we're chasing the move in GVA. However, if shares do break support at the $30.00 level then it could see a significant decline. Normally this is where investors should expect a bounce, near support at $30.00. Yet if the market continues to sink GVA could easily set a string of new multi-year lows. The P&F chart is already bearish with a $20 price target. We are suggesting a trigger for shorts at $29.85. If triggered our target is the $25.50-25.00. FYI: Readers need to be aware that the most recent data puts short interest at 8.8% of the 38.9 million-share float. That is about five days worth of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 760 thousand


Sepracor - SEPR - close: 21.47 change: -1.37 stop: 23.61

Company Description:
Sepracor Inc. is a research-based pharmaceutical company dedicated to treating and preventing human disease by discovering, developing and commercializing innovative pharmaceutical products that are directed toward serving unmet medical needs. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
SEPR reported earnings on Friday. The company beat the estimate by 12 cents but then guided lower. This earnings warning pushed the stock to a new multi-year low. SEPR had previous found support in the $22.25-22.40 region. That level of support broken and the midday rally failed at $22.26. We are suggesting shorts with SEPR under $22.00. Readers can choose to open positions now or look for another failed rally under the $22.00-22.25 zone. Our target is the $18.00-17.50 region. FYI: Readers need to know that the most recent data puts short interest at 7.2% of the 110.5 million-share float. That is more than 3.5 days of short interest.

Picked on February 29 at $21.47
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/29/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million


Safeway Inc. - SWY - close: 28.74 change: -0.68 stop: 30.51

Company Description:
Safeway Inc. is a Fortune 100 company and one of the largest food and drug retailers in North America, based on sales. The company operates 1,743 stores in the United States and western Canada and had annual sales of $42.3 billion in 2007. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
SWY reported earnings on February 21st. The results were inline with analyst expectations. Unfortunately, they said some things on their conference call that sent the stock shooting lower. SWY broke down under significant support near $30.00 as the company issued bearish comments about how the consumer looks like they're pulling back. There was an oversold bounce but that failed near $30.44. We are suggesting shorts here under $29.00 but a failed rally anywhere under $30.00 could work as a new entry point. There appears to be some support near $26.00 so we are suggesting a target in the $26.50-26.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22.00 target. We do want to point out that on the P&F chart SWY is at the trendline of support. Normally, a stock will see a sharp rebound when it hits this trendline on the P&F chart. The February 22nd-26th bounce might have been that rebound but it wasn't enough to register on the P&F chart. Meanwhile the latest data puts short interest at 3.9% of the 437 million-share float, which is about 4 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February 29 at $28.74
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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