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New Plays
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New Plays
Long Plays
Short Plays
HOG
JNPR  
   

Play Editor's Note: I don't trust this rally. My bias is that we're still in a bear market and this is just a big bounce. However, I can't trade what I think is happening - only what the market is showing us. I'm adding a few bullish positions but traders need to be cautious!


New Long Plays

Harley-Davidson - HOG - close: 41.75 chg: +1.72 stop: 39.45

Company Description:
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is the parent company for the group of companies doing business as Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC), Buell Motorcycle Company (Buell), Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) and MV Agusta Group (MVAG). Harley-Davidson Motor Company produces heavyweight motorcycles and offers a line of motorcycle parts, accessories, general merchandise and related services. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
Fundamentally my personal bias on HOG is bearish. The U.S. consumer is struggling. Credit is hard to get. HOG's sales have to suffering. Yes, it's true that they export their bikes but now market pundits are worried about a global slow down. I suspect that HOG will see new lows before the year is out. Yet that's not what the chart is showing us. Instead HOG has built what appears to be a seven-month base or bottoming pattern. Now shares just rallied past technical resistance at the 200-dma and they look poised to breakout from their trading range. Volume on Friday was strong, which is a bullish signal. We are suggesting a trigger to buy HOG at $42.55, which is above the late January 2008 high. If triggered our target is $47.50-50.00 zone. Our stop is $39.45. More nimble traders might want to consider buying a dip near $40.00 but you'll probably need to adjust your stop loss placement. The P&F chart is still bearish but if HOG can breakout over very significant resistance in the $41-42 zone it would be a quadruple-top breakout buy signal. The latest data lists short interest at 12% of HOG's 232 million-share float.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/16/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million

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Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 26.80 chg: +1.00 stop: 25.99

Company Description:
Juniper Networks, Inc. is the leader in high-performance networking. Juniper offers a high-performance network infrastructure that creates a responsive and trusted environment for accelerating the deployment of services and applications over a single network. This fuels high-performance businesses. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
The Point & Figure chart on JNPR is still bearish but the charts are showing a bullish breakout over its 12-month trendline of lower highs. The stock is currently challenging short-term resistance near $27.00 and will soon be bumping up against the simple 200-dma. Nimble traders might want to consider buying a breakout over $27.00 or dips to $26.00. We would rather see a breakout over the 200-dma so our suggested entry point is $27.55. There is resistance near $29.50 so we are listing two targets. Our first target is $29.45. Our second target, if the rally continues is $32.50. As always, we suggest you take some money off the table at the first target. If triggered at $27.55 we'll start with a stop loss at $25.99. That is not the best risk-reward ratio for a stop loss but JNPR can be somewhat volatile. You may want to use a tighter stop loss.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 15.8 million

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Monster Worldwide - MNST - cls: 19.80 chg: +0.80 stop:

Company Description:
Monster Worldwide, Inc., parent company of Monster, the premier global online employment solution for more than a decade, strives to inspire people to improve their lives. With a local presence in key markets in North America, Europe, and Asia, Monster works for everyone by connecting employers with quality job seekers at all levels and by providing personalized career advice to consumers globally. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
The super-sharp rebound in shares of MNST has reversed the Point & Figure chart into a new buy signal with a $27 target. Unfortunately for the bulls MNST has rallied right to resistance near $20.00 and its 50-dma. We don't want to buy it right here. Stocks don't move straight up for very long so we're looking for a dip. Our suggested entry point is the $18.60-18.25 zone. We'll use a tight stop loss at $17.85. More aggressive traders might want to consider an alternative entry point on a new relative high over $20.25. If we are triggered at $18.60 our target is the $21.75 mark.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million
 

New Short Plays

Cincinnati Fincl. - CINF - cls: 28.22 chg: +0.87 stop: 28.35

Company Description:
Cincinnati Financial Corporation offers property and casualty insurance, our main business, through our three standard market companies, The Cincinnati Insurance Company, The Cincinnati Indemnity Company and The Cincinnati Casualty Company. The Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance Company provides excess and surplus lines property and casualty insurance. The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company markets life and disability income insurance and annuities. CSU Producer Resources, Inc. is our excess and surplus lines brokerage, serving the same local independent agencies that offer our standard market policies. CFC Investment Company offers commercial leasing and financing services. CinFin Capital Management Company provides asset management services to institutions, corporations and individuals. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
I am not convinced that the financials can keep the rally going. The group failed to make a new relative high on Friday. Most of the technical indicators are suggesting a correction lower. CINF looks like a potential short given last week's action. We are suggesting readers consider shorts or bearish plays on a move under $27.00. Our official trigger is $26.99. If triggered we have two targets. Our first target is $25.05. Our second target is $24.00. We'll use a stop loss above today's high at $28.35.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million
 

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