NEW BULLISH Plays

Target Corp - TGT - close: 52.32 change: -0.54 stop: 49.90 Target(s): 57.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 48.00, 50.00, 53.00, 55.00, 58.00
Current Gain/Loss: n/a
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: Yes

Company Description:
Target Corporation's retail segment includes large general merchandise and food discount stores and Target.com, a fully integrated on-line business. In addition, the company operates a credit card segment that offers branded proprietary credit card products. The company currently operates 1,743 Target stores in 49 states. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
Retail stocks have been very resilient. News that consumer spending has slowed, that consumer sentiment is falling, that the savings rate is hitting one year highs, and a disappointing July same-store sales figures has not been enough to change the bullish trend in retail stocks. While I doubt how much longer this sector can ignore all the bad news there is no denying the short-term trend is higher.

I suggest we take advantage of the move with a bullish positions in TGT. Open positions now with a stop loss at $49.90. More conservative traders may want to wait for a close over $53.00 or its 100-dma near $53.50 just to confirm the move higher. Our target is $57.50, which could take several weeks to hit.

Suggested Position: stock @ 52.32 (current levels)

Annotated chart:

Entry on August 09 at $xx.xx (?)
Earnings Date 08/18/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.5 million
Listed on August 7th, 2010


Financial SPDR ETF - XLF - close: 14.78 change: -0.13 stop: 14.45 Target(s): 16.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 14.50, 15.00-15.10, 15.40
Current Gain/Loss: n/a
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: Yes, trigger at $15.15

Company Description:
The XLF is the Select Sector SPDR exchange traded fund (ETF) focused on the financial sector. The fund includes banks, diversified financials, insurance and real estate companies.

Why We Like It:
As much as I doubt the rally in stocks the trend in the XLF is growing more bullish. This financial ETF has been consolidating under resistance near $15.00 and its 200-dma for weeks. You can almost see the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. If the XLF breaks the neckline to this pattern it would forecast a move toward $16.50.

I'm willing to let go of my bearish bias if the XLF can breakout above resistance. Use a trigger at $15.15 to open small bullish positions. Our target is $16.50.

Suggested Position: stock/ETF @ $15.15

Annotated chart:

Entry on August xx at $xx.xx
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume: 82 million
Listed on August 7th, 2010


NEW BEARISH Plays

Con-way Inc. - CNW - close: 30.80 change: +0.39 stop: 34.05 Target(s): 25.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.00, 28.00, 32.00
Current Gain/Loss: n/a
Time Frame: Three or four weeks
New Positions: Yes, trigger 31.75

Company Description:
Joplin, Mo.-based Con-way Truckload is an operating company of Con-way Inc. and a leading provider of expedited, time-definite full-truckload transportation services across North America. Formerly Contract Freighters, Inc. (CFI), Con-way Truckload today employs over 3,000 drivers with a fleet of more than 2,700 tractors and 8,000 trailers operating throughout the United States as well as internationally in Mexico and Canada. The company provides full-truckload transportation serving the transcontinental shipping needs of commercial and industrial businesses as well as sister company Con-way Freight. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
A number of the transport stocks have been doing very well. As a matter of fact the Dow Jones Transportation index looks poised to breakout higher. Unfortunately for shareholders of CNW the opposite is true. The company reported earnings this past week and missed estimates. The stock gapped down but managed a bounce from support. Odds are good that CNW could fill the gap before rolling over again. The top of the gap at $32.00 should be new resistance.

I am suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $31.75. We'll use a stop loss at $34.05. (More conservative traders could always wait for a close under $28.00 before launching positions). Our first target is $25.50.

Suggested Position: SHORT the stock @ 31.75

Weekly Annotated chart:

Daily Annotated chart:

Entry on August xx at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 11/03/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million
Listed on August 7th, 2010


Temple Inland Inc. - TIN - close: 19.31 change: -0.77 stop: 21.25 Target(s): 16.00, 14.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 20.00, 18.00, 16.00
Current Gain/Loss: n/a
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: Yes

Company Description:
Temple-Inland Inc. is a manufacturing company focused on corrugated packaging and building products. The fully integrated corrugated packaging operation consists of 7 mills, and 60 converting facilities. The building products operation manufactures a diverse line of building products for new home construction, commercial and repair and remodeling markets. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
After three months of consolidating sideways in a neutral pattern of lower highs and higher lows it looks like the bears finally won. TIN reported earnings in late July and missed estimates. The reaction pushed shares toward support. The weakness on Friday broke that trendline of support.

I am suggesting bearish positions now, at current levels. We'll use a stop loss at $21.25. Our first target is $16.00.

Suggested Position: SHORT the stock @ 19.31 (current levels)

Annotated chart:

Entry on August xx at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 10/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million
Listed on August 7th, 2010