NEW BEARISH Plays

SPDR Retail ETF - XRT - close 36.97 change +0.09 stop 39.28

Company Description:
SPDR S&P Retail ETF (the Fund) seeks to replicate as closely as possible the performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index (the Index). The Index is an equal weighted market cap index. The Index represents the retail sub-industry portion of the S&P Total Market Index. The Fund invests in industries, such as apparel retail, automotive retail, food retail, department stores, Internet retail, general merchandise stores, drug retail, and hypermarkets and super centers.

Target(s): 36.00, 35.25, 34.65
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 39.00, 38.00, 37.60, 36.50, 35.80, 35.00
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks

Comments:
The retail sector is facing many headwinds from a weak consumer and many analysts are already pointing to a dismal back to school season. In addition, retailers are going to have offer deeper discounts than they are currently just to get consumers into stores to buy things. This will negatively affect earnings and if retailers begin to warn investors by lowering guidance XRT will suffer. I've chosen the ETF as opposed to individual names to filter out some of the earnings noise being reported this week by many major retailers. I do expect a bounce in the overall market in the coming days and suggest readers initiate short positions on any strength. We'll use $37.35 as a trigger to enter short positions in XRT. Our stop will be $39.28 which is above two downtrend lines and the 20, 50, and 200-day SMA's. If triggered, our first two targets are -3.5% and -5.5% away, respectively.

Suggested Position: Short XRT if it trades to $37.35

Options Traders: Buy September $36.00 PUTS, current ask $1.05, estimated ask at entry $0.92

Annotated chart:

Entry on August xx
Earnings: 11/2/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 12 million
Listed on August 16, 2010