NEW BEARISH Plays

Ctrip.com Intl. - CTRP - close: 21.64 change: +0.36

Stop Loss: 23.05
Target(s): 18.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Why We Like It:
CTRP is a travel services company focused on tours and trips in China. The stock has been stuck in a wide, volatile $22-28 trading range. CTRP broke down from this trading range on Thursday and Friday's bounce failed to lift it back above prior support, which should be new resistance.

I am suggesting bearish positions at the open on Monday but readers may want to keep their position size small or limit their risk by trading put options. The most recent data listed short interest at about 10% of the 131 million share float. That could raise the risk of a short squeeze.

We will list our stop loss at $23.05, about 30 cents above the 10-dma. It's possible the $20.00 level could act as round-number, psychological support but we are aiming for $18.00.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CTRP is bearish with a $15.00 target.

launch positions at the open on Monday

Suggested Position: short CTRP stock @ (the open)

- or -

Buy the Apr $21 PUT (CTRP1221P21) current ask $0.65

Annotated chart:

Entry on April xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 05/--/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.6 million
Listed on March 31, 2011


Micron Technology Inc. - MU - close: 8.10 change: -0.32

Stop Loss: 8.41
Target(s): 7.05
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Why We Like It:
MU's rally topped out in early February. Since then the stock has been stuck in a neutral consolidation of higher lows and lower highs. Shares just broke the pattern of higher lows on Friday. Yet the stock stalled right at technical support on its 300-dma. Aggressive traders may want to short MU now. I am suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $7.98 with a stop at $8.41. Our target is $7.05.

Trigger @ 7.98

Suggested Position: short MU stock @ (trigger)

- or -

buy the Apr $8.00 PUT (MU1221P8) current ask $0.35

Annotated chart:

Entry on April xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 06/21/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 33.0 million
Listed on March 31, 2011