NEW BEARISH Plays

AGCO Corp. - AGCO - close: 46.43 change: -0.61

Stop Loss: 48.25
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Entry on September -- at $---.--
Listed on September 16, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 976 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Why We Like It:
Farmers do not like to buy new equipment when the price of their crops is falling.

According to the company website, "AGCO is a global leader focused on the design, manufacture and distribution of agricultural machinery. We support more productive farming through a full line of tractors, combines, hay tools, sprayers, forage equipment, tillage, implements, grain storage and protein production systems, as well as related replacement parts. Our products are available in more than 140 countries worldwide."

AGO management has noted weakness in multiple parts of the world this year. Their most earnings report was July 29th. They managed to beat bottom line estimates by 8 cents with a profit of $1.77 a share. Yet revenues dropped by almost 10% and missed the revenue estimates. To make matters worse AGCO management lowered their 2014 guidance by a significant margin. A few analysts expect the company's earnings to fall over the next 18 months.

Part of the challenge is the business climate for farmers. Falling crop prices affect farmer sentiment and they tend to spend less. Unfortunately for AGCO the U.S. has seen falling commodity prices for a while and it's getting worse. The recent rise in the dollar is forcing grain prices lower. Plus the American farmer is expecting a record-breaking harvest this year. They are expecting so much grain (corn and soybeans) that it will exceed the nation's ability to store it all. That doesn't bode well for farmer sentiment either.

Technically shares of AGCO are bearish. Investors have been selling the rallies since the peak in 2013. Back in July the stock broke down under a long-term, multi-year trend line of support. Now after a four-week consolidation near $48.00 the stock has started to breakdown again.

Tonight we're suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $46.25. We are not setting an exit target yet but I will note the point & figure chart is projecting at $40.00 target.

Trigger @ $46.25

- Suggested Positions -

Short AGCO @ (trigger)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Buy the NOV $45 PUT (AGCO141122P45) current ask $1.20

Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Annotated Chart:

Weekly Chart: