Will Mario Draghi disappoint the market again?
Speculation has been building that the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce some form of asset purchases, a.k.a. quantitative easing (QE), at the end of its meeting tomorrow.
Expectations are running pretty high and that is dangerous since ECB President Mario Draghi has disappointed the market several times over the last two years.
Right now the question does not seem to be if the ECB will announce a QE program tomorrow but how much and for how long. Currently, after leaks from people inside the ECB, the best estimate is a QE program of €50 billion
a month ($58 billion) for two years. That's about €1.2 trillion.
Another estimate we heard from a European market analyst was €1 trillion over two years.
If we see numbers less than the estimates above it could spark a market sell-off. Adding to the market's uneasiness about the ECB meeting tomorrow were comments today from ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny who said investors "should not get overexcited about it" (referring to the ECB meeting).
We are not adding any new trades tonight as the market could move sharply either direction depending on the ECB decision.