NEW BEARISH Plays
Virgin America Inc. - VA - close: 37.03 change: +0.08
Stop Loss: 38.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Entry on January -- at $---.--
Listed on January 27, 2015
Time Frame: 2 to 4 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million
New Positions: Yes, see below
Why We Like It:
The IPO honeymoon period for shares of VA might be ending soon. The company's stock hit the market on November 13th with about 13.3 million shares priced at $23.00 each. VA opened at $27.00 and rallied to $30.00 on its first day of trading. Six weeks later VA was testing the $40.00 level.
According to the company's marketing material, "Virgin America is a California-based airline that is on a mission to make flying good again, with brand new planes, attractive fares, top-notch service, and a host of fun, innovative amenities that are reinventing domestic air travel. The Virgin America experience is unlike any other in the skies, featuring mood-lit cabins with fleetwide WiFi, custom-designed leather seats, power outlets, and a video touch-screen at every seatback offering guests on-demand menus and countless entertainment options."
VA currently has a fleet of more than 50 Airbus single-aisle planes.
Airline stocks have been big winners the last year and a half. The rally in airline stocks off the group's 2014 October low has been exacerbated by plunging oil prices. Jet fuel is a huge expense for this industry so falling oil is a significant tailwind toward company profits.
Many airlines to try reduce their risk of jet fuel price volatility with fuel hedges. The use of hedges can be a two-edged sword and that appears to be cutting into VA's profits. The company confessed last week that its fuel hedges are killing its margins. Today the spot price for jet fuel is around $1.60 a gallon. VA is locked into prices in the $2.48-2.75 for 66 percent of its fuel needs for the current quarter.
VA also announced they raised their employee pay, which will likely hurt margins as well.
Shares are down sharply on this news although VA managed a bounce today. The point & figure chart has already turned bearish and is forecasting at $32 target.
The intraday low today was $36.76. We are suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $36.45. However, more conservative traders may want to wait for VA to break the trend line of higher lows (see chart) before initiating positions.
Please note that this could be a short-term trade. VA has not confirmed its earnings date yet but I suspect they will announce in February. We'll try to avoid holding over their earnings announcement. When that information becomes available we'll adjust our time frame.
Trigger @ $36.45
- Suggested Positions -
Short VA stock @ (trigger)
- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -
Buy the FEB $35 PUT (VA150320P35) current ask $1.50
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike