NEW BEARISH Plays
Emerge Energy Services - EMES - close: 37.95 change: -0.93
Stop Loss: 41.25
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Entry on May -- at $---.--
Listed on May 06, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 413 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below
Why We Like It:
The bubble in fracking sand and proppant stocks popped in 2014. The top in the fracking sand producers was just a couple of months after crude oil peaked last year. The impact of crude oil's decline and the industry's reaction to the oversupply-pricing issue will still be felt for months to come. Just as the oil and gas producers are cutting expenses, mothballing rigs, and delaying new projects, the proppant companies are forced to do the same. EMES recently announced they were canceling plans to build a new silica sand processing facility.
EMES is in the basic materials sector. They're part of the oil services industry. According to the company, "Emerge Energy Services LP (EMES) is a growth-oriented limited partnership engaged in the businesses of mining, producing, and distributing silica sand, a key input for the hydraulic fracturing of oil and natural gas wells. Emerge Energy also processes transmix, distributes refined motor fuels, operates bulk motor fuel storage terminals, and provides complementary fuel services. Emerge Energy operates its sand segment through its subsidiary Superior Silica Sands LLC and its fuel segment through its subsidiaries Direct Fuels LLC and Allied Energy Company LLC."
The earnings picture has been damaged by a very rough pricing environment for EMES' sand. Their Q4 2014 earnings, announced on March 2nd, were $1.01 per share. That was 12 cents below expectations. Q4 revenues were down -1.4% to $242.6 million compared to analysts' estimates of $301 million. That's a huge revenue miss.
The weakness continued in the first quarter. Wall Street was expecting EMES to report Q1 2015 earnings of $0.83 a share on revenues of $264 million. The company only delivered $0.39 per share with revenues down -25.5% to $204 million. The rest of 2015 is expected to remain challenging.
The stock was hammered again on April 24th when EMES management reduced their dividend from $1.41 per share down to $1.00.
The $40.00 level has been support and now shares are breaking down. The most recent data listed short interest at 13% of the very small 14.6 million share float. This time the shorts are probably right but the high short interest could make this a volatile trade.
EMES' recent attempt at a bounce has been failing. We want to catch the next leg lower. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch bearish positions at $37.65.
Trigger @ $37.65
- Suggested Positions -
Short EMES stock @ $37.65
- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -
Buy the JUN $35 PUT (EMES150619P35) current ask $1.90
option price is a current quote and not a suggested entry price.
Entry disclaimer: To avoid an unfavorable entry point, we will not launch a new play if the stock gaps open more than $1.00 past our suggested entry point.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike