NEW BEARISH Plays
First Solar, Inc. - FSLR - close: 55.28 change: -0.90
Stop Loss: 57.25
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Entry on May -- at $---.--
Listed on May 19, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million
New Positions: Yes, see below
Why We Like It:
Investors may not have the patience for FSLR's plans to form a yieldco. The last several months have delivered some rocky moves in FSLR's stock with a swing from the low $70s down to $40 and then back to $65. Now shares are breaking down again.
FSLR is in the technology sector. According to the company, "First Solar is a leading global provider of comprehensive photovoltaic (PV) solar systems which use its advanced module and system technology. The Company's integrated power plant solutions deliver an economically attractive alternative to fossil-fuel electricity generation today. From raw material sourcing through end-of-life module recycling, First Solar's renewable energy systems protect and enhance the environment."
FSLR's most recent earnings report was on April 30th. Their Q1 results were a disaster. A year ago FSLR earned $1.89 per share for Q1 2014. This year analysts were expecting a loss of ($0.28) per share. FSLR delivered a loss of ($0.62). Revenues plunged -50% from a year ago to $469 million. Wall Street had been expecting $600-636 million in revenues.
Back in February, when FSLR reported its Q4 results, the company had already warned that future revenues would be weak (for multiple quarters) as they prepare to form a yieldco with another solar firm, SunPower (SPWR). At the time, the market didn't seem to care. Shares of FSLR soared on its earnings report back in February.
Three months later and investor sentiment appears to have changed. FSLR commented on their revenue declines in their Q1 report. Here's an excerpt from their earnings report, "The sequential decrease in net sales resulted from retaining projects which would otherwise have generated revenue in anticipation of the Company's announced plans to pursue a YieldCo. In addition, delays on multiple projects in the current quarter, a higher mix of module only sales and the sale of the SolarGen 2 project in the prior quarter contributed to the lower revenue."
A yieldco is similar to a real estate investment trust (REIT) which is designed to produce dividends for investors. Back in February FSLR had announced plans to partner with rival SPWR and form a new company, 8Point3 Energy Partners, as a new yieldco company. FSLR believes that long-term the yieldco will deliver for investors but traders may not have the patience to wait around at current valuations.
Technically shares of FSLR look weak. They are down sharply from their late April, pre-earnings, high near $65.00. There has been very little oversold bounce as shares churned sideways in the $55-57 zone these last several days. The point & figure chart is bearish and forecasting at $45.00 target. Odds are good that FSLR could try and fill the gap from February and that would mean a drop toward round-number support near $50.00. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $54.40.
Trigger @ $54.40
- Suggested Positions -
Short FSLR stock @ $54.40
- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -
Buy the JUL $50 PUT (FSLR150717P50) current ask $1.08
option price is a current quote and not a suggested entry price.
Entry disclaimer: To avoid an unfavorable entry point, we will not launch a new play if the stock gaps open more than $1.00 past our suggested entry point.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike