NEW BEARISH Plays

GNC Holdings - GNC - close: 40.78 change: -0.59

Stop Loss: 42.55
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Entry on October -- at $---.--
Listed on October 13, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings at the very end of October (or early November)
- We will adjust the time frame when GNC publishes its earnings date -
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Trade Description:
We want to take another swing at GNC. The bearish story for the stock has not changed and the oversold bounce has reversed.

Here's an updated trade description:
Tougher competition, increased government scrutiny, and changing consumer habits have not been a good recipe for shares of GNC. The stock is down -13.1% in 2015 and poised to hit new lows.

GNC is in the services sector. According to the company, "GNC Holdings, Inc. - headquartered in Pittsburgh, PA - is a leading global specialty health, wellness and performance retailer. The Company's foundation is built on 80 years of superior product quality and innovation. GNC connects customers to their best by offering a premium assortment of vitamins, minerals, herbal supplements, diet, sports nutrition and protein products. This assortment features proprietary GNC - including Mega Men®, Ultra Mega®, Total Lean®, Pro Performance®, Pro Performance® AMP, Beyond Raw®, GNC Puredge®, GNC GenetixHD®, Herbal Plus® - and nationally recognized third party brands.

GNC's diversified, multi-channel business model generates revenue from product sales through company-owned retail stores, domestic and international franchise activities, third party contract manufacturing, e-commerce and corporate partnerships. As of June 30, 2015, GNC had more than 9,000 locations, of which more than 6,700 retail locations are in the United States (including 1,067 franchise and 2,304 Rite Aid franchise store-within-a-store locations) and franchise operations in more than 50 countries."

GNC faces multiple issues. This year there have been negative headlines for the supplement industry. Testing showed that multiple supplements at various retailers were filled with bogus ingredients. Companies like Wal-mart, Target, Walgreens, and GNC have all come under fire for selling the fraudulent products. This will likely increase government scrutiny for supplements in general.

GNC also faces an issue with changing consumer habits. While most of Americans are overweight and out of shape there is a growing trend of healthier eating. Consumers want to know what they are putting in their bodies. That means less pills and more raw fruits and veggies, especially organic ones.

The biggest challenge could be tough competition. Online rivals can provide supplements at cheaper prices than GNC's retail stores. Best Buy (BBY), the consumer electronics store, has faced this issue for years with consumers coming into a Best Buy store, shopping around, and then going home and buying the product online from Amazon.com for less money and getting it delivered. GNC faces the same issue.

GNC's earnings have struggled. Their Q1 report, announced April 30th, missed estimates. GNC missed on both the bottom line profit estimates and the revenue estimate. Revenues were down -0.6% and same-store sales plunged -4.1%. Management lowered their 2015 guidance following this report.

GNC's Q2 results were not much better. They missed on both the top and bottom line again. Earnings only grew +2.6% from a year ago. Revenues were virtually flat with a +0.5% gain. Same-store sales fell -2.8%.

The stock rallied anyway because management said they would focus on more franchised stores. This news seemed to have sparked some short covering. Shares of GNC soared from $42 to $50 in just a few days but the rally reversed. Now the stock is trading at new 2015 lows. The company's announcement on August 4th to boost their stock buyback program by an additional $500 million did not help the stock very much.

GNC is in a bear market and the oversold bounce just failed near resistance in the $43.00 area. The point & figure chart is bearish and forecasting at $33.00 target. Tonight I am suggesting a trigger to launch bearish positions at $39.90.

This is a short-term trade. GNC has earnings coming up at the very end of October or early November. We plan to exit prior to the announcement.

Trigger @ $39.90

- Suggested Positions -

Short GNC stock @ $39.90

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Buy the NOV $40 PUT (GNC151120P40) current ask $2.10
option price is a current quote and not a suggested entry price.

Entry disclaimer: To avoid an unfavorable entry point, we will not launch a new play if the stock gaps open more than $1.00 past our suggested entry point.

Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Daily Chart:

Weekly Chart: