NEW BEARISH Plays

Columbia Sportswear - COLM - close: 45.39 change: -0.69

Stop Loss: 48.05
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Entry on December -- at $---.--
Listed on December 07, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings in February
Option traders exit prior to January expiration
Average Daily Volume = 284 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Trade Description:
The pace of consumer spending has been disappointing this year. Overall retail sales have been slow. Plus the warmer weather has been a major set back for outerwear and winter clothing a lot of retailers are dealing with high levels of unsold inventory.

COLM is in the consumer goods sector. According to the company "Columbia Sportswear Company has assembled a portfolio of brands that connect active people with their passions, making it a leader in the global active lifestyle apparel, footwear, accessories and equipment industry. Founded in 1938 in Portland, Oregon, the company's brands are today sold in approximately 100 countries. In addition to the Columbia® brand, Columbia Sportswear Company also owns the Sorel®, Mountain Hardwear®, prAna®, Montrail® and OutDry® brands."

Bullish COLM investors have got to be frustrated. It's true that a lot of retailers have struggled. Yet COLM has had pretty good results this year. Their Q4 report from 2014, announced in February, was above estimates and management raised guidance. The stock soared on the bullish report and guidance.

Their Q1 results, on April 30th, beat estimates and guidance was in-line. Then on July 30th, COLM reported their Q2 results. Again earnings and revenues beat estimates by a wide margin. Management raised their guidance again. Shares of COLM exploded to new all-time highs and almost hit $75.00. That has proven to be the peak.

Since COLM's report in July the market has begun selling COLM's stock. The up trend reversed with COLM sinking under a bearish pattern of lower highs and lower lows. They reported their Q3 results on October 29th. They beat estimates again and raised their full-year guidance. The stock gapped higher nearly $10 the next day only to reverse lower.

Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) really shook up the retail industry when they reported their earnings on November 17th. DKS missed Wall Street estimates on both the top and bottom line and DKS guided lower. The company blamed warm fall weather on their disappointing results. DKS also warned that Q4 would likely be very promotional, which would hurt margins. A few days later Bank of America Merrill Lynch downgraded COLM from "buy" to "neutral" over similar worries.

Technically COLM is in a bear market. The point & figure chart is forecasting at $36.00 target. COLM bounced off the $45.00 level in November. That bounce has failed. Now shares are about to breakdown under key support at $45.00. We are suggesting a trigger to launch bearish positions at $44.75.

Trigger @ $44.75

- Suggested Positions -

Short COLM stock @ $44.75

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Buy the JAN $45 PUT (COLM160115P45) current ask $2.75
option price is a current quote and not a suggested entry price.

Entry disclaimer: To avoid an unfavorable entry point, we will not launch a new play if the stock gaps open more than $1.00 past our suggested entry point.

Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Daily Chart:

Weekly Chart: