Editor's Note

Starboard Value saw value slip away when Depomed announced an agreement to replace the CEO and two board members.



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DEPO - Depomed Inc - Company Profile

Depomed, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, engages in the development, sale, and licensing of products for pain and other central nervous system conditions in the United States. It offers Gralise (gabapentin), an once-daily product for the management of postherpetic neuralgia; CAMBIA (diclofenac potassium for oral solution), a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug indicated for acute treatment of migraine attacks in adults; Zipsor (diclofenac potassium) liquid filled capsule, a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug for the treatment of mild to moderate acute pain in adults; and Lazanda (fentanyl) nasal spray, an intranasal fentanyl drug used to manage breakthrough pain in adults. The company also provides NUCYNTA ER (tapentadol extended release tablets), a product for the management of pain severe enough to long term opioid treatment, including neuropathic pain associated with diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) in adults; and NUCYNTA (tapentadol), a product for the management of moderate to severe acute pain in adults. In addition, it is involved in the clinical development of Cebranopadol for the treatment of chronic nociceptive and neuropathic pain. The company sells its products to wholesalers and retail pharmacies. It also has a portfolio of license agreements based on its proprietary Acuform gastroretentive drug delivery technology with Mallinckrodt Inc.; Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; and Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Company description from FinViz.com.

The company is under attack by activist investor Starboard Value. Starboard wants to own the company for a potential M&A move at some point in the future. Last week, the company said they had reached an agreement with Starboard to replace the CEO and add two new Starboard nominated members to the board.

Normally when an activist investor gains control of a company it suggests the stock will go up. However, analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald say it is not currently a buy. They believe there will be continued weakness in the shares once investors realize it could be a long time before a merger/acquisition is accomplished.

CF said existing problems include "softness" in the opioid market and the potential attack on opioid drugs by the new administration. There needs to be a realignment in Depomed's sales force. They need to explore the exit opportunities in Opana. They also need to supply clarity relating to Depomed's debt refinancing.

CF said all those factors should continue to pressure the stock. Starboard will also have to create some additional value before they can market the company for a profit. The analyst thought this would take the better part of 2017.

Depomed guided for Q1 revenue of $95-$100 million and analysts were expecting $114.6 million.

Earnings May 23rd.

Shares broke support at $14.75 on the news of the agreement with Starboard. Shares are dropping like a rock on the Cantor Fitzgerald analysis.

Sell short DEPO shares, currently $12.54, stop loss $14.05.

Optional: Buy May $12 put, currently 80 cents, initial stop loss $15.25