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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 06/28/2001

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Thursday 06-28-2001
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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In section one:

Market Wrap: It started with bonds and ended with Microsoft!
Market Sentiment: Rally, Window Dressing, Asset Allocation, or 
                    Court Ruling?
Play-of-the-Day: Echelon Corporation ELON 
Watch List: Airlines, Wireless and Software

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
        06-28-2001        High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10564.73 +131.37 10646.45 10438.66 1.30 bln   1882/1213	
NASDAQ   2125.32 + 50.72  2157.32  2096.88 1.93 bln   2319/1398
S&P 100   635.33 +  8.89   640.63   626.69   totals   4201/2611
S&P 500  1225.82 + 15.13  1234.44  1211.07             
RUS 2000  502.99 +  7.41   503.31   495.58 
DJ TRANS 2765.56 + 65.36  2780.21  2700.78 
VIX        22.58 -   .99    23.34    21.65 
Put/Call Ratio      0.50
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

It started with bonds and ended with Microsoft! by Jeff Bailey

Today was a bullish traders dream.  Everything a bullish trader 
could have hoped for unraveled today, but it was a progression of 
events that started with the bond market and ended up with a 
favorable court ruling for Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT).

The first "alert" that selling was occurring came from the 5-year 
bond as its YIELD began to rise sharply just after the open of 
trading.  The bond market opens at 8:30 am EST, which is one-hour 
ahead of the stock market open.

5-year YIELD chart - 60-minute interval



Even though the Fed cut rates yesterday, we did see selling in 
the 5-year bond as indicated by a rising YIELD.  While the Fed 
controls and sets interest rate policy, the bond MARKET decides 
on bond YIELD buy purchasing or selling.  An equity trader that 
understand the supply/demand characteristics of the stock market 
knows all too well that the only thing that drives a stock price 
higher is a greater number of buyers than sellers.  For buying to 
happen though there has to be cash.  One place cash can be raised 
is through the selling of Treasury bonds and boy did we see some 
selling in bonds today!  We saw it yesterday too, but felt that 
we needed to see a continuation for stocks to benefit and that's 
exactly what happened.

10-year YIELD chart - 60-minute interval



While the 5-year saw sellers show up almost from the open, it 
took about 3 hours until the YIELD on the 10-year turned higher.  
Early in today's session you got the distinct feeling that 
everyone was looking at each other like a herd of deer trying to 
decide if they should cross the highway.  Once the first deer 
bolted across, the rest of the crowd seemed to follow!

Stocks looked to be on a roll and then all of a sudden you could 
almost feel a brief surge higher in stocks when shares of 
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) were halted.  The stock was halted as 
early news hit the wires that the company was about to receive 
what many viewed a favorable ruling from the federal appeals 
court.  The stock was halted so that all market participants 
could digest the news that the appeals court did indeed reverse 
Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson's decision ordering the breakup of 
the company.

Microsoft Chart - 60-minute interval



You can see from the above chart of MSFT just how wild things got 
today.  In the first three hours of trading, the stock actually 
traded below yesterday's close.  When bond YIELDS started to 
rise, the stock also firmed up and began heading higher.  Then 
the stock really started getting active when "rumor" began to 
circulate that the company was about to receive a favorable court 
ruling.  When the stock opened back up for trading, nearly 25-
million shares traded hands in an hour!  Where in the heck did 
that kind of money come from?  Some came from bonds probably.  
And perhaps, some came from today's BEARISH play of the day in 
the "Stockbottom" portion of the newsletter!

Kerr McGee Chart - 60-minute interval



Energy stocks came under more selling pressure today and 
PremierInvestor.net investors have to feel pretty good about 
their account today!  The CBOE Oil Index (OIX.X) lost 2.69% of 
its value while shares of Kerr McGee (KMG) outperformed to the 
downside by losing 3.94%!  We might expect some buyers to be 
lurking near the $62.52 level as I'm pretty sure we're not the 
only ones that thought this stock was going down hard today.  At 
some point those that shorted up at $70 will want to lock in 
gains and that may have the stock getting a bit of a bounce.  
What one never knows for sure though is when some buying will 
occur.  Suffice it to say, it wasn't today!


================
Market Sentiment
================

Rally, Window Dressing, Asset Allocation, or Court Ruling?
   By Jeffrey Canavan

Was today the start of a new rally, or merely an end of quarter 
anomaly?  The way the markets faded into the close tends to make 
me believe the later.  If you believe in statistics, the last day 
of the second quarter has been down 7 out of the last 10 years.  
The performance of Microsoft today also clouds the picture. After 
the entire ruckus that surrounded the software maker's court 
ruling, Microsoft finished up a meager $1.60.  What's good for GM 
is good for America use to be the mantra chanted on Wall Street, 
but that credo has been updated to - what's good for Microsoft is 
good for America. 

As you can tell, my market bias for tomorrow was leaning towards 
the bearish side, and then PMC Sierra warned that their loss 
would be wider than expected for the current quarter.  That 
cinched it, the market is heading lower tomorrow...no...wait a 
second...PMC Sierra is $3 higher in after hours trading.   I've 
stopped trying to rationalize these reactions to earnings, and my 
best guess at the market's sentiment is that that the bulls may 
lack conviction, but the bears look afraid to pull the trigger.  
I leave you with some of PMC Sierra's financial data to play 
analysts with.

          Revenue     Cash Flow    Inventory  (in millions)
03/26/00   $114         $ 23          $ 9
06/25/00   $161         $ 54          $13
09/24/00   $198         $114          $32
12/31/00   $220         $182          $54
04/01/01   $119         $-21          $63
07/19/01*  $ 93            ?           ?

Assuming an optimistic 15% growth rate, how many quarters would 
it take for PMC to get back to $220 million in revenues? 

Answer - 7 quarters

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Volatility
VIX   22.44
VXN   48.71

Put/Call Ratio
Total            .50
Equity Only      .40
OEX             1.35
QQQ              .41

Bullish Percent Data: Readings above 70 are considered 
overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold

NYSE          42
NASDAQ-100    34
DOW           54
S&P 500       44

10-Day Arms Index  1.24
Readings above 1.25 are bullish, and readings below .85 are 
bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but 
when the do, they can signal significant market turning points.

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      1878           1216
NASDAQ    2308           1407

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE       152            37
NASDAQ     137            45

Advisory Sentiment   Bullish   Bearish
                       51%      30.6%

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Data as of 6/19/01
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Net Value        +72258     +67110         -69745    -70183
% of OI         (+39.20%)  (+25.01%)      (-10.37%) (-9.04%) 
                 net-long   net-long      net-short  net-short

                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Net Value         -3711       -4305         +1876     +6239  
% of OI          (-32.56%)  (-28.76%)      (+8.2%)   (+14.44%)
                 net-short   net-short     net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Net Value         +5881      +2110         -10617     -10648    
% of OI          (+25.92)   (+6.09%)      (18.44%)   (-13.68%) 
                 net-long   net-long      net-short net-short

------------------------------------------------------------------


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================

Echelon Corporation ELON $28.33 +2.33 Stop: $26.10

Original comments when first selected: 

Strong bullish momentum compels us to revisit this former Bullish 
selection.  Echelon wants to control your world, or at least your 
washing machine and air conditioner.  The Sunnyvale, California-
based company designs, markets and services products that allow 
industrial equipment, household devices and building environments 
such as assembly line robots, security devices, thermostats, 
pumps and valves to communicate with each other and the Web.  
The company's technology gets imbedded into control systems that 
allow them to be connected through a network.  Customers include 
Honeywell, Siemens and Johnson Controls.  

For the first quarter, Echelon reported an increase in earnings 
from a loss of $651 thousand to a gain of $22 thousand.  Revenue 
rose 10-percent to $12.6 million.  For the year, analysts forecast 
earnings of 19-cents per share on sales of $79 million.  This is 
a big improvement over last year's earnings of 0.00-cents per 
share on revenue of $47 million.  Analysts expect the good times 
to continue, they project 2002 earnings of 71-cents per share on 
sales of $174 million.  This gives the firm a forward P/E of 136 
for 2001 and 37 for 2002.  This compares well with the industry 
average P/E of 88 and is reasonable given the company's projected 
sales growth of 66-percent for 2001 and 112-percent for 2002.

This company's strong financial improvement has not gone 
unnoticed by investors.  After dropping to $8.00 on April 4th 
the shares rebounded to set a new 6-month closing high of $25.66 
on May 22nd.  Since then the shares have been locked in a trading 
range bounded approximately by $21.50 and $26.00.  Wednesday's move 
represents the fourth time since entering the channel that the 
shares have tested $26.00.  We believe in this case, the fourth 
time is the charm.  Wednesday's $26.00 close set a new 6-month 
closing high and did so on the third consecutive day of rising 
volume.  In addition, Wednesday's volume of 556k was well above 
the 398k daily average.  Another sign that we like was strong 
intraday behavior on Wednesday's 1-minute chart.  The shares ended 
the day as solid as it began with nary a dip in between.  Toss the 
anticipated strong July 19th earnings report into the picture and 
ELON shares have clear bullish momentum and the means to maintain 
it.  

Updated comments: 

Turns out the fourth time was the charm.  Our newest Bullish 
selection had a big start.  We felt the shares were prime to break 
resistance at $26.81 and this would set up a test of $29.00.  With 
a session high of $29.53 on Thursday, this is exactly what we got. 
Volume was more than double the 410k daily average at 993k shares 
traded.  This bodes well for a possible break of $29.00.  If this 
occurs, the next target would be the early November high of $33.63 
with an outside shot at the October $39.25 high.  However, traders 
should wait for the $29 break on solid volume before getting in.  
Support from a bearish reversal should be found within the gap 
created from yesterdays $26.00 close and Thursday's $27.00 open.  
We are moving our stop to $26.10. 

Picked on June 27th at $26.00
Gain since picked        2.33
Earnings Date            7/19 (Not Confirmed)





==========
Watch List
==========

FRNT – Frontier Airlines, Inc. $12.61 +0.20

WHY WE LIKE IT: With the economy still in a downtrend, you might 
wonder why any airline stock is worth paying attention to. First 
of all, Frontier Airlines low fare, no frills approach is 
appealing simply due to consumers tightening their purse strings 
in these times of uncertainty. Secondly, the fact that oil and 
gas prices are in a virtual free fall only boosts an airlines 
profit margins, as behind payroll, fuel prices top the expense 
category on the income statement.

POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: While the bounce off of the possible 
floor at $10.75 is impressive, volume totals have yet to impress, 
giving reason for doubt. Shares of the Denver-based airline look 
susceptible to retrace to $12.00 -$12.50, where we would consider 
adding them if volume totals neared 400k.




---

PVTL – Pivotal Corp. $16.45 +0.46  

WHY WE LIKE IT: As the Microsoft decision works its way into 
investors psyche, we expect software companies could continue to 
catch a bid. Canadian-based Pivotal is a leader and the e-CRM 
field of the sector, and have been quoted as Siebel System's only 
real competitor by Tom Siebel himself. Recent weakness in the 
stock in light of such encouraging news for the group could be an 
excellent time to watch the stock's price action.

POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: We would want to see one more day of 
higher highs before giving PVTL as shot as a new long position, 
despite all of the good news in the sector. The recent sell-off 
has been swift and sudden, and we suspect the company's thin 
stock float and largely institutional shareholder base has 
something to do with this. In any event, a long position in PVTL 
would require a tight stop loss, as the stock looks susceptible 
to $12.00 in the event a rally failed.




---

CREE – Cree, Inc. $24.34  +2.35

WHY WE LIKE IT: A day trader's favorite, the volatility in shares 
of CREE are definitely appealing with the Nasdaq Composite 
surging north of the 2100 level. Even with the recent bad news in 
the semiconductor sector, CREE should outperform the broader 
market if the buying in tech continues. To the extent we don't 
get more warnings this week from the semi's, a $30-handle appears 
reasonable near term.
 
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: We would like to see CREE breach its 50-
dma at $25.98, where we would turn our head and hit the Buy 
button. As we mentioned, volatility is VERY high in this stock, 
but can also reward you handsomely if you are on the right side 
of the tape. Previous settlements above the 50-dma have proved to 
be the time to get on board this wildly swinging stock, and we 
would not want to fight recent historical price action when this 
event occurred.




---

AWE – AT&T Wireless, Inc. $16.57  +0.55

WHY WE LIKE IT: With AT&T finally cutting the cord on AWE, 
interest is high in the stock. On July 9th, AT&T will exchange 
all outstanding tracking shares for a common stock and issue a 
special distribution of .3218 AWE shares for every T share. The 
company is also receiving index manager attention due to its 
inclusion in the S&P 500 index after the close Friday.

POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: Today's move is seen as a clear 
breakout, and we should probably add the stock as a new play this 
evening. In fact, there is very little to suggest that shares 
won't continue their uphill climb until $17.50. The single fact 
that holds us back is the $0.39 gap higher this morning, which we 
suspect was caused by retail buyers, or weak hands. Should AWE 
pull back to the down sloping trendline near $16.00, we might 
give it a spot on the play list.





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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.


PremierInvestor.net Newsletter               Thursday 06-28-2001
                                                  section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/4963_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Split Trader
  New Plays: BISYS Group Inc. BSYS
  Play Updates: ADVP, BMET, ESI
  Closed Plays: There are no new closed plays

NetBulls
  New Play: There is no new NetBulls play
  Play Updates: YHOO, AMAT, ELON, CSC, GETY
  Closed Plays: There are no new closed plays

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Plays: Corning, Inc. GLW 
  Play Updates: BEAS, CTXS, FFIV, ISRG, MEDI, RATL, SHLR, THC,
                TJX, VPHM, KMG
  Closed Plays: There are no new closed plays


=================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

===================
Split Announcements
===================

============
ST New Plays
============

  -------------------------
  New Split Candidate Plays
  -------------------------

BISYS Group Inc. BSYS $59.91 +2.14 Stop: $57.00

This Little Falls, New Jersey-based firm is an IT outsourcing 
company for more than 11,000 financial institutions and 
corporations including  banks, mutual funds, insurance companies, 
and retirement plans.  Its BISYS's TotalPlus products and services 
offer transaction processing and document imaging (it is a leading 
provider).  The company also offers mutual fund and retirement plan 
distribution, administration, and fund accounting services.  They 
are also a major distributor of life insurance, annuities, group 
health, and long-term care products. Seeking to be the single source 
for all its clients' outsourcing needs, BISYS adds to its stable of 
products and services through acquisitions. The company's purchase 
of HML added professional certification training, continuing 
education, and other support services to BISYS Insurance and 
Education Services division. Other purchases include Pictorial 
Holdings, the parent company of a provider of professional 
certification and licensing and maker of compliance software 
products; Ascensus Insurance Services, a distribution services 
provider for life insurance products; and retirement plan 
administrator Universal Pensions. BISYS has customers throughout 
the US and in several other countries, notably the UK. 

The analysts' consensus estimate for the July 30th fiscal fourth 
quarter earnings report is for the firm to earn $0.47 per share on 
sales of $194 million.  On an annual basis, analysts expect the 
firm to earn $1.47 per share on sales of $698 million and $1.78 on 
$849 million in 2002. Last years earnings were $1.23 per share.  
This give firm an estimated 2001 P/E of 40.7.  This is a premium 
over the industry average P/E of 18.  However, this premium is 
warranted given the company's 29-percent earning growth rate for 
the current year against the industry average of 9.9-percent.

This play came to our attention as a potential split candidate.  
The company split last September when the shares hit $78.00.  
Although the share price is not currently at that level, a great 
technical picture and the coming earnings announcement may give it 
the bullish momentum to get there.  The shares pushed right through 
$58 resistance to set a new closing high for the year at $59.91.  
Volume at 1.01 million shares traded was over double the 486k daily 
average suggesting the buying sentiment is strong.  The former 
$58.00 resistance level is now support in the event of a bearish 
reversal.  We are implementing a stop at $57.00.

Picked on June 28th at $59.91
Earnings Date            7/30 (Not Confirmed)





===============
ST Play Updates
===============

  -----------------------
  Split Candidate Updates
  -----------------------

ADVP - Advance PCS, Inc. $63.70 -0.43  s/l $61.00 New
The healthcare business is booming, and shares of ADVP continue 
to impress. Since our last update, ADVP has taken out its weekly
high, closing Wednesday at $64.13, and now looks poised to take 
out the 52-week high at $68.60. Support resides with the 21 & 50 
dma's ($61.16, $60.96), and these moving averages are rising, a 
very bullish sign. Our stop moves to $61.00.

Next Earnings: 8/28/01

Chart  =


===

BMET - Biomet, Inc. $48.45 +0.81  s/l $46.50

Our two day stint with BMET has been rather uneventful, and 
shares were unable to set a new 52-week high in trading 
Wednesday, missing the mark by a mere penny. As of today's close, 
we sit with a loss of 34-cents. The company is scheduled to 
release earnings on 7/9/01, and this could possibly result in an 
earnings run. The strength in the chart is amazing, with support 
at the 10 & 21 dma as firm as hickory wood.

Next Earnings: 7/19/01




===

ESI - ITT Educational Serv., Inc. $43.75 -0.24  s/l $41.50

Since fulfilling the bullish pennant formation back on 6/25, 
shares of ESI have traded basically sideways. We would like to 
see ESI take out the high from 6/5 ($44.90), in order to break 
out of the $42-$45 trading range, freeing the stock to work its 
way higher. With little news and the tech sector garnering 
interest, shares of ESI may have a hard time doing this. Volume 
has been on this decline since Monday's gain, signaling waning 
interest. Our stop remains at $41.50.

Next Earnings: 7/19/01





==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  -----------------------
  NB Bullish Play Updates
  -----------------------

Yahoo! Inc. YHOO $19.38 +0.65 Stop: $17.25

Yahoo shares resumed a bullish bias and are poised once more to 
tackle important upside resistance in the range of $20 to $20.50.  
Our initial recommendation for conservative traders still holds to 
wait for a move above $21 on solid volume before taking a position. 
 This breakout would confirm bullish momentum and place resistance 
levels at $25.94 and $30 square in our sights.  If this break does 
not occur, the shares are liable for a pullback and in that case 
downside support is at $17.50.  

Picked on June 25th at $19.77
Gain since picked       (0.39)
Earnings Date            7/11 (Not Confirmed)
 



===

Applied Materials AMAT $49.57 +1.10 Stop: $48.10 New

After a brief foray with the bears on Wednesday, our Bullish 
selection is back on track.  On Thursday, the shares once again 
tackled resistance at Tuesday's $50.21 close and $51.00 session 
high.  A jump in volume to 22 million, which is well above the 
daily average of 17 million, suggests the bulls have momentum and 
a breakthrough is a good possibility.  This would set up a test of 
the next area of resistance between $54.50 and $55.00.  We are 
lifting our stop slightly to just below recent lows at $48.10.

Picked on June 22nd at $49.05
Gain since picked        0.52
Earnings Date            8/14 (Not Confirmed)




===

Echelon Corporation ELON $28.33 +2.33 Stop: $26.10 New

Nice start for our newest Bullish Selection.  We felt the shares 
were prime to break resistance at $26.81 and this would set up a 
test of $29.00.  With a session high of $29.53 on Wednesday, this 
is exactly what we got.  Volume was more than double the 410k daily 
average at 993k shares traded.  This bodes well for a possible 
break of $29.00.  If this occurs the next target would be the 
early November high of $33.63.  Support from a bearish reversal 
should be found within the gap created from yesterdays $26.00 close 
and Thursday's $27.00.  We are moving our stop to $26.10. 

Picked on June 27th at $26.00
Gain since picked        2.33
Earnings Date            7/19 (Not Confirmed)




  -----------------------
  NB Bearish Play Updates
  -----------------------

Computer Sciences Corporation CSC $34.91 +0.41 Stop: $36.00

CSC shares remain in congestion.  Although there is the slightest 
of bullish bias evident, it is not strong but does bear watching 
and forces us to put out the caution flag.  A close above $35.25 
on strong volume would indicate a rise in bullish sentiment, 
whereas a close below $33.15 would suggest the bears are in full 
control.  We will maintain our stop at $36.00, just in case the 
bulls win out

Picked on June 21st at $35.00
Gain since picked:       0.09
Earnings Date            N/A (Not Confirmed)




===

Getty Images, Inc. GETY $25.00 0.00 Stop: $26.00 New

No change in the stock price or our outlook for Getty Images.  
Bulls and bears are locked in a tug-of-war and neither is able to 
produce a lasting move.  On an intraday basis the bulls made their 
move early on Thursday when they pushed the shares to the $25.60 
session.  They were able to hold most of the gain until the final 
hour of trading when the bears were able to drive the shares back 
to dead even.  We are hopeful the late bearish move will carry 
into Friday's trading.  Given the narrow trading range the shares 
are operating in we are comfortable tightening our stop loss 
to $26.00.

Picked on June 25th at $24.89
Gain since picked       (0.11)
Earnings Date            N/A (Not Confirmed)
 




==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  --------------
  New Long Plays
  --------------

GLW – Corning, Inc. $15.80 +1.15  Stop: 14.00

Sector – Communications Equipment

Corning Incorporated is a global, technology-based company that 
operates in three broadly based business segments, 
Telecommunications, Advanced Materials and Information Display. 
The Telecommunications Segment produces optical fiber and cable, 
optical hardware and equipment, photonic modules and components 
and optical networking devices for the worldwide 
telecommunications industry. The Advanced Materials Segment 
manufactures specialized products with properties for customer 
applications, utilizing glass, glass ceramic and polymer 
technologies. 

This is not the old Corning peddling baking ware and other 
kitchen-use dishes. No, this is the Corning creating leading-edge 
technologies for the fastest-growing markets of the world's 
economy. Or at least that was the story last year. As evidenced 
by the chart of the daily stock price over the past year or so, 
demand was either sharply overstated or has drastically dried up 
for GLW's optical fiber, cable and photonic products for the 
telecommunications industry, and this is reflected in company's 
EPS estimates going forward. Last year, the company reported EPS 
of $0.31 for the June 2000 quarter. This year, those numbers are 
estimated to be roughly 1/2 of that number, as consensus 
forecasts are for GLW to post $0.18. In fact, with year over year 
EPS declining by 28.41%, buying this company on a fundamental 
basis takes some forward-looking thinking. The company does 
appear to be forming a bottom, both from a technical and 
fundamental basis, with $12.60 acting as a floor, the new 52-week 
low set just seven days ago. Since this took place, however, 
volume has been surging, driving share prices higher, now up 
nearly 30% since June 20th. Plain and simple, we think the floor 
has been seen in GLW. Both stochastics and MACD readings are 
plotted firmly in the bull camp, with the later showing a bullish 
cross of the trigger line in today's session. Volume surpassed 
the 30-day average trend yet again Thursday, and GLW also put the 
10-dma ($14.36) behind it for the second time in four sessions. 
Considering the positive bias in the markets thanks to the MSFT 
announcement, we think GLW trading 15% higher near term could be 
a reality. We've set a loose stop down at $14.00 so the stock can 
work its way higher. Our target for the trade is $19.00, almost 
16% away from current pricing.

Average Daily Volume = 12.1 mln 
52-week:  High = $113.33 Low = $12.60
Next Earnings 08-24 est = 0.18 versus = 0.31

 



===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  -----------------
  Long Play Updates
  -----------------

BEAS - BEAS Systems, Inc. $31.96 +1.00  s/l $25.00
BEA has been lagging other names in the software group such as 
CTRX and RATL, but our resolve to be long the stock remains firm. 
Despite the company's CEO saying that business was excellent and 
prospects were high going forward, investors still remain 
skeptical. As one analyst put it: BEA is priced for perfection, 
and with so many failing to perform, its easy to see why the 
stock is stuck in a mire near $31.00. Perhaps an excellent 
earnings report will light a fire under the stock. We doubt 
you'll have to wait that long, and BEA only needs volume to 
improve to get its stock back near the 50-dma at $36.30. We are 
basically flat on the trade and our stop remains at $25.00.

Next Earnings: 8/14/01




===

CTXS - Citrix Systems, Inc. $34.45 +1.22  s/l $32.15

Since our last update on CTXS, shares have continued their 
winning ways. When we last updated the play, we mentioned that 
you could search high and low and still not find a chart as 
strong as that of CTXS's. Well, the stock's relentless assault on 
higher ground makes that task even harder now, with CTXS tacking 
on another $0.00 since Tuesday. With the market catching a bid, 
specifically the software sector, the resistance at $36.00 may 
fall by the wayside in quick order. Our stop moves to $32.15.

Next Earnings: 7/18/01




===

FFIV - F5 Networks, Inc. $18.30 +0.61 s/l $17.88

All we can say about FFIV is Oh my! The stock's previous slow 
ascent has transformed into an explosive attack on higher ground, 
with the 200-dma now well below shares to act as support. With 
little to hold the stock back until $27.00, it should continue to 
perform. Our stop moves to $17.88 so as to protect the $3.29 or 
22% gain we now sit with on the trade.

Next Earnings: 7/25/01




===

ISRG - Intuitive Surgical, Inc. $13.43 +0.31  s/l $12.05

ISRG's robotic, minimally invasive surgical system dubbed da 
Vinci continues to gain attention in the medical community, as 
well as in the investment community. ISRG exploded on Wednesday, 
tacking on $1.87 in heavy trading. The surge was prompted by 
initiation of coverage from brokerage house UBS Warbug, who rated 
ISRG a strong buy and placed a 12-month price target on the stock 
of $16.00. From our entry at $11.05, we now sit with a gain of 
$2.38. Our stop moves to $12.05 on the trade. We think $15.00 is 
a realistic objective in the next few sessions.

Next Earnings: 7/24/01




===

MEDI - Medimmune, Inc. $47.43 +2.26  s/l $40.00

Medimune is still lacking the participation needed to push its 
shares above the key-200 dma at $47.84. Since adding the stock 
back on 6/21, volume has only surpassed the 30-day average count 
one time, and appears to be shrinking still. The biotechnology 
index (BTK) did catch a bid Thursday, however, and the index now 
holding back above the 50-dma at 585 bodes very well for MEDI 
going forward.  We are down $0.05 since adding MEDI and our stop 
remains at $40.00. Should the BTK be able to close above 618, 
MEDI could be off to the races.

Next Earnings: 7/25/01




===

RATL - Rational Software, Inc. $29.21 +1.22  s/l $28.20 New

RATL still looks strong, with shares adding $1.67 since our last 
update on Tuesday. The software sector has been buoyed by upbeat 
comments from Oracle CEO Larry Ellison, although RATL's 
participation has not traded at levels that could spur a big 
upside move. Volume is still coming in below the 30-day average 
daily count, although we won't argue with the steady price 
appreciation seen in the stock. New has been thin, but the 
technical work being done is impressive. With the close at $29.08 
today, RATL has cleared prior resistance and should slowly work 
its way towards $37.27, the 200-dma. Again, the move is 
susceptible to failure due to a lack of volume. Our stop moves to 
$28.20.

Next Earnings: 7/11/01




===

SHLR - Schuler Homes, Inc. $12.75 -0.75  s/l $11.94

Surprisingly, we are down a touch on our trade of Shuler Homes. 
We think its only a matter of time, however, before investors 
realize the benefit lower interest rates will have on 
homebuilders like Shuler's business. With the FED lowering short 
term rates by .25% again yesterday, mortgage rates should follow 
in short order. With housing now affordable than ever due to 
lower rates, more and more people should bite the bullet and take 
the plunge into the housing market. Apparently, the renewed 
interest in technology is holding back share prices in SHLR near 
term. Our stop remains at $11.94.

Next Earnings: 8/9/01




===

THC - Tenet Healthcare, Inc. $51.36 +0.46  s/l $49.75

After coming within a mouse hair of our stop loss at $49.75 
Tuesday, THC has recovered in typical fashion, climbing back 
above the 10-dma at $51.04. Shares are now back on the rise 
again, although with volume on the decline as share prices have 
risen, coupled with technology catching a bid due to both the 
rate reduction from the FOMC and the Microsoft ruling being 
overturned, THC could have trouble getting traders interest. Our 
stop remains at $49.75, and we up only slightly ($0.27) on the 
position.

Next Earnings: 7/25/01




===

TJX - TJX Companies, Inc. $32.32 +0.14  s/l $31.70 New

The picture of frustration, shares of TJX appear to be stuck in a 
downtrend, and have now clearly broken support of the 50-dma, 
settling below this mark for the prior two trading sessions. We 
are apt to close the position now, taking our loss and moving on. 
However, we'll give TJX a couple more days on the play list, 
holding shares in anticipation of the S&P retailing holding 
support of its 200-dma at 846. We've moved our stop up to $31.70, 
to protect from further losses.

Next Earnings: 8/14/01




===

VPHM - Viropharma, Inc. $29.15 +0.55  s/l $27.00

Another flat position for us, shares of VPHM have traded sideways 
since we added them on 6/22. We have hope for the stock though, 
as the BTK is again showing signs of life with its surpassing of 
the 50-dma in Thursday's session. News on the stock has been non-
existent since we last updated the play, and this has perhaps 
added to the lackluster price action. Volume has also been a 
problem, with daily totals being well below the 30-day average 
count each day since we added the stock as a long play. Our stop 
remains at $27.00 for VPHM.

Next Earnings: 7/26/01





  ------------------
  Short Play Updates
  ------------------

KMG - Kerr-McGee Corp. $63.00 -2.59  s/l $66.00 New

Kudos to Jeff Bailey for his excellent choice of KMG as a new 
short position last evening. After losing support of the crucial 
200-dma on Wednesday, KMG continued free-falling, shedding 
another $2.59. With natural gas and gasoline prices in a virtual 
freefall, shares of KMG could continue to give up ground. 
Shareholders might put up a fight at $62.50, but considering the 
weak tone in the sector, we doubt this support will hold. Our 
stop moves to $66.00.

Next Earnings: 7/26/01





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